Mock Draft Multiverse
In a vacuum, a mock draft is relatively useless. There are too many variables at play, too many trades to predict (even if most happen in the latter rounds), and too little knowledge of how each of these prospects is wired to make proper predictions. But in the aggregate, mock drafts are a useful tool for examining teams’ potential thought processes.
So, with the draft just a few days away, I did five mock drafts of five hypothetical scenarios in hopes of examining both the variance that comes with the draft and the constants that we can (theoretically) rely on. Granted, these “constants” are based hugely (if not entirely) on my own personal biases, how I see this draft class, and how I expect the Niners to (roughly) act. I have a decent track record on prospect assessment, but when it comes to predicting the Niners’ actual draft decisions? Shit. I’m just as dart-throwy as the next guy. This is more of a thought exercise.
THE THOUGHT PROCESS
I wanted each of these mock drafts to come from some shred of reason, which meant narrowing down candidates at pick 11 and going from there. I tossed around a lot of names during the first round preview, so now to cull the herd.
First off, I don’t think we’re taking a cornerback. I just don’t believe that’s how Lynch and Shanahan want to build this roster, particularly with the glaring holes we have in the trenches. Renardo Green (pick 64) is the highest we’ve taken a corner, and that was when we had far fewer roster holes. Typically, this is a position we address in the later rounds because we believe we can get startable production through scheme fits. So that eliminates Will Johnson and Jahdae Barron.
The Niners put more capital into the defensive line than anywhere else, so there’s certainly a chance we go defensive tackle at 11. But unless Mason Graham somehow slips, I don’t know if the value makes sense. Each of the other first-round graded DTs (Kenneth Grant, Walter Nolen, Derrick Harmon) has a chance of slipping into the second round, and that round is already loaded at the position. If we trade down, a defensive tackle seems highly plausible (mock draft #4), but at 11, I’m leaning away from it because of how much value there is later on.
Tight end is a luxury pick, but Tyler Warren is still a wildcard. I wouldn’t guess we pick him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we do. Thus, he gets his own mock draft (#3).
The Niners spent a big chunk of last summer telling us how good they were along the offensive line and how little sense it made to invest major capital on the position… so 11 feels high for an offensive tackle. But we’ve been doing our homework on the position, and I think there’s a shot. Membou’s a scheme fit, and his athletic profile would be hard to turn down if he falls, but that’s unlikely. I don’t know how they have these first-round(ish) guys ranked, but—if his medicals checked out on his visit—don’t be surprised if Josh Simmons is a wildcard. So, mock draft #2 will include a first-round tackle.
By now, you can probably guess where I’m going with our first pick. We know the Niners value defensive linemen. We know they desperately need a pass rusher to pair opposite Bosa. If we stick at 11, I think our most likely pick is at defensive end. Realistically, there are three to choose from.
I like Jalon Walker the prospect, but I don’t love Jalon Walker the fit. Fresh off a year of being gouged on the ground, I think the Niners will be scared of his lack of size on the edge. I also think he’s the most likely of these three to get drafted in the top ten, probably by a 3-4 team that can play him in a hybrid role.
That means we’re down to two: Shemar Stewart and Mykel Williams. Neither was particularly productive in college. Both are developmental projects with traits over skill. Mykel has more production and a bit more polish, plus the excuse of an ankle injury he played on through the 2024 season, but Shemar has the better pure traits. In fact, those traits are exceptional. If I had to guess, I’d say we lean Stewart because we love betting on traits and banking on Kocurek to coach ‘em up. But I wouldn’t be shocked if we go either way. And there’s honestly a world where someone snipes us for Stewart before we’re even on the board. Regardless, mock draft #1 will include a defensive end in the first round.
Am I in love with drafting a boom-bust project at 11? Not really. But I’m onboard. Edge rushers aren’t like quarterbacks. You don’t have to be crazy productive in college to get there as a pro. Odafe Oweh (1st Rd, 2021) had zero sacks in his last year in college. Clay Matthews (1st RD, 2009) had 5.5 across four years. Danielle Hunter (3rd, 2015) had 4.5 (same as Stewart). All of those guys became high-level pass rushers in the NFL. And while there are plenty of other toolsy prospects who never put it together in the pros, a raw edge becoming a dominant pass rusher is more common than you think.
#1: Back to Basics
IMO, our most likely first-round pick
The closest thing we’ve got to a meme draft, we spend our first three picks (and five overall) on defensive linemen and 7 of 11 on defense. At the bottom of the third, we’re able to secure our tackle of the future in Charles Grant—a small school prospect I’m quite high on—followed shortly by a potential immediate starter at linebacker in Chris Paul Jr. There are a handful of linebacker prospects in this class who seem like good fits and a few who seem like excellent fits. Paul is the latter. Brashard Smith’s wheels and his background as a receiver intrigue me. If you’re adding an RB3, might as well pick one who has some gadget ability and positional flexibility for when the rest of the room is healthy. Corner is pushed down to the fifth round, but that’s kinda what we do (DJ Reed, Sam Womack, DeMo, Darrell Luter), and there’s a good chunk of value/scheme fit in that region.
#2: A Real Live Offensive Tackle
If he knocks his interview (and medicals) out of the park, there’s a chance.
A first-round pick at OT naturally makes this draft a bit more offensive-leaning, but it’s still mostly a defensive affair. The turns at the top of the second and third continue to be ripe with defensive linemen, and we add two upside plays in Senior Bowl and workout warrior Darius Alexander and the raw but rapidly ascending Oluwafemi Oladejo—whose market is murky but I like quite a bit.
Harold Fannin Jr. is our chess piece addition. He feels like a weapon as a move tight end and—eventually—heir apparent at fullback, but how many snaps he can garner this year is a big TBD. In the fifth, we tap the ripe DT market with a super productive pass rusher in Jared Harrison-Hunte. If he can develop into a full-timer, that’s icing on the cake, but his pass rush ability alone is valuable this late.
#3: F*ck It, Tyler Warren
Can Shanahan help himself? In this case, he cannot.
Drafting a tight end early when you already have an All-Pro on roster and tons of other needs is the closest real-life drafting gets to fantasy football. When you pull the trigger on that elite early-round TE early in fantasy, you inevitably spend the rest of the draft scrambling to fill flex spots and make up for the depth you lost by taking a luxury pick early. That’s what we’re looking at here.
However, it’s worth noting that this draft still looks pretty good, in large part because we follow the tight end pick at the top with a very “meat and potatoes” approach through the rest of the draft. Linemen. Linebackers. The less cute we get, the more we can tap the heart of this draft class (even if we get VERY cute in the first round). That’s an important lesson across all these mock drafts.
Chase Lundt’s got the wheels to play in our system, but that OT spot could just as easily go to Grant, Logan Brown, or even Anthony Belton—who I don’t adore as a fit but is someone we brought in for an official visit. The tight end pick early puts us a bit behind the eight ball in filling out our DL, so we take Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, knowing we can play him somewhere. We take a swing on the world’s skinniest legitimate draft prospect in Tez Johnson, hoping we can—at worst—use him like a taller, more talented Tutu Atwell in the slot and by spamming him in motion.
#4: Small Trade Down
A trade down six spots lets us fill our biggest need at better value than if we’d taken him at 11
Doesn’t take long to see the value we’ve gained from trading down. I went off script a bit with a corner earlier and a linebacker later than usual and threw in a third-round wideout to boot. But the extra capital not only lets us add another starter(ish) talent in the third but gives us greater flexibility to hop around and target specific players in the later rounds.
If you like the mental makeup and how he’s wired, Walter Nolen is an amazing fit for our scheme. 11 is earlier than ideal, but in a class with so little consensus, I think some teams are higher on him than his rankings may indicate. 17 could be just right.
Deebo’s departure means we don’t have an easy outlet to force-feed slants when teams go zone. Kyle Williams could shred in that role, take the top off defenses, and shows enough actual receiver skills to hope he can become a well-rounded receiver down the road. That’s a tough combination to find in the middle rounds.
While there are tons of big corners in this draft, Jacob Parrish may fit what we like better nowadays. Smaller but scrappy and versatile. We bookend two smaller DTs with two large ends and address linebacker later than usual with Kain Medrano. His tape is sloppy because of all the missed tackles, but his speed and instincts are a great foundation for Johnny Holland to work with. No running back taken in this mock, but we’ll add one or two as UDFAs.
#5: Big Trade Down
We take a big hop down for an additional pick in the second
Got cute with a couple of prospects just to show the depth and variety of players who exist in different positional tiers around our draft slots. The major addition from past mocks is Carson Schwesinger, who is probably the best linebacker in this draft who fits our defense. It’s a touch high for the position, but we had an extra second from the trade down.
Quincy Riley is an interesting add here because his profile fits more of a man coverage corner, but we’re clearly intrigued by his plus athleticism and ball skills. It's a bit of a swing, but certainly one that could pay off if we mix in more man coverage moving forward. Jackson Slater is a plus athlete who needs some work but could eventually start at a guard or unseat Brendel. A boy can dream…
TRADE DOMINOS
While on the subject of trades and fluidly changing draft landscapes, I wanted to make a little cheatsheet on which prospects available at 11 could entice the interest of which teams. At the very least, it’ll give us some rooting interest in the top ten as prospects come off the board.
RB, Ashton Jeanty, Boise State: A unanimous top 5 player and RB1 who everyone loves, with demand driven by the fact that we pick right before a Dallas team in desperate need of a running back, Jeanty could have multiple suitors. Denver—one of the few teams snooping for a move up—seems most likely, with the Steelers another possibility.
OT/OG, Will Campbell, LSU: With a major need in the trenches and a two-spot move up that would only cost them a fourth rounder, the Dolphins could come knocking. They probably care less which position Campbell sticks at, given their need and the fact that he’s a great fit for what they do offensively. Kelvin Banks is another tackle to watch here because it feels like his valuation fluctuates wildly from team to team.
TE, Tyler Warren, Penn State: The Colts are the most obvious pairing here. They desperately need a more well-rounded weapon in their passing game and a security blanket to protect their investment at QB. Don’t count out the Chargers, but it’s a big move up, and they may be targeting former Harbaugh acolyte Colston Loveland later in the first.
High-upside DE: Most teams kinda need defensive line help, but the Falcons (15), Cardinals (16), and Bengals (17) pick back-to-back-to-back just a few slots behind us, and each team could point to edge rusher as their biggest need. Don’t be shocked if someone wants to make a jump to secure their pick of the litter.
FINAL TAKEAWAYS
None of these drafts is perfect. I purposefully tried to mix and match players I love with others I just like. I avoided any big lucky breaks, both the unrealistic ones (Mason Graham at 11?) and those more grounded in reality (one of those first-round DTs falling into the second), in hopes of presenting bits and pieces of highly plausible potential outcomes. No sense in blue balls for the sake of blue balls. Better to be pleasantly surprised than set up for disappointment.
But what are my hopefully real takeaways from these undoubtedly fake mock drafts?
Draft for Value and Don’t Reach: This should be applicable for every year, but obviously that hasn’t always been the case for us (3rd round kicker fuuuuuu). Just too much value and depth at the critical DL positions to make rash decisions early when you can wait and get paid off down the road.
D-Line will dictate the second day (and arguably the first): This shouldn’t be surprising as it’s our biggest need, the position group we want to spend the most capital on, AND the deepest position group in this class. And given our immense need at both tackle and edge, picking a dude early and getting the need out of the way won’t preclude us from tapping the class again later in the draft.
But that does NOT mean we need to take a DT first: Biggest need + deepest position group can easily lead to some fuzzy math and the belief that we have to slam a DT in the first round. That could be the right value with a trade down from 11, but the depth of this class and the uncertainty of the size and cutoff points of that 2nd/3rd tier of tackles mean there should be plenty of value in waiting.
Save the speculative skill swings for later: There are a few offensive skill players I can get behind taking in the third round (preferably after a trade down nets us an additional third), but anyone we take that high better have a clear immediate function AND a long-term plan. This is not “luxury pick” time.
Wait on a cornerback: It’s somewhat ironic that the Niners seem to have settled on a “type” at cornerback—scrappy guys who don’t need to be that big—just in time for a more traditional crop of large zone corners to arrive in this draft class. Regardless, we believe our scheme allows us to find above average play at the position on the cheap. A team that prioritizes running backs and tight ends needs to offset that by pushing a premium position or two further down the pecking order. This is a good year to stick to that and add starting competition late.
This wraps up the draft preview series! Depending on my schedule, I’ll try to push something small out on Thursday night and/or Friday night to recap the day and look at the rounds ahead. Hope you enjoyed reading, and, of course…
Go Niners 🏈👍