2023 NFL Draft Recap
this photo stolen DIRECTLY from the Niners’ official website
It’s tougher to get excited about the draft when we’re not picking until the end of the third round, but it only takes some bad luck and one trash draft to derail the fortunes of a contender (AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James anyone?). Luckily, it doesn’t seem like we’ll have to worry about that. While the nine dudes we added over the weekend (and the incoming UDFA crop) didn’t make up the flashiest haul, they look to be a very solid group of contributors.
A couple of items of note:
If you ever HAVE to be short on early picks, this was a good year for it, as this draft class was lacking in elite-level talent but was deep through the middle rounds. That timing was fortuitous but also intentional from our front office. As a team that’s coming off back-to-back NFC Championships, is returning all but two starters (three if you count Moseley), and had already filled most of those starting positions before the draft even started, there aren’t a lot of snaps up for grabs heading into 2023. And with teams typically knowing the strengths and weaknesses of any given draft class a year or two out from the draft itself, the Niners were certainly intentional in which years’ picks got traded in the Lance and CMC deals. With our payroll pushed up against the cap and some tough decisions coming next off-season, I wouldn’t expect us to be as willing to part with high-end draft picks leading up to next year’s draft. From a fan perspective and a team-building one, that’s certainly a good thing.
Football character and locker room culture fit has been a huge part of our evaluation process ever since the whiffs on Rueben Foster and Joe Williams in year one under ShanaLynch, and this class is no exception. While our obsession with fit and mentality sometimes leads us to pass on guys who are athletically superior but have question marks in their character or approach, that stubbornness has also been a major factor in explaining the unreal hit rate of our Day 3 and UDFA pickups. This year’s class is absolutely littered with team captains and guys who college coaches can’t stop raving about as team leaders and tone setters.
Schematic fit was excellent in this class as well. Nearly all of our draftees are guys whose so-called weaknesses can be hidden by what they’ll be asked to do in our particular schemes. A few of them (the seventh-round fullback in particular) literally couldn’t have asked for a better NFL fit.
Finally, our class has a ton of guys who could become special teams standouts. It makes sense because special teams are the best place to stash a guy who might get swooped off your practice squad without exposing him to offensive or defensive reps that he’s not ready for. As stated above, there are not a lot of roster spots available on our team, but special teams has—and will always be—a great way for young dudes who are still learning the craft to carve out a role so that they can stick around long enough to see offensive or defensive snaps.
Now, onto the picks.
S, Ji’Ayir Brown, Penn State (Round 3, Pick 87)
Our first pick of the draft, and—based on value and talent—probably our best. Ji’Ayir Brown sliding down enough to still be available at the bottom of the third was, for many media types and draft pundits, the most optimistic scenario the Niners could have hoped for given where we were picking. We had to package some picks to move up 12 spots to secure him, but it was well worth the cost.
Brown could have the best instincts of any safety in this draft class, and he has shown tremendous versatility playing the type of interchangeable safety role that we so commonly employ. Brown’s 10 interceptions over the past two years were more than anyone else in FBS football, he led the Nittany Lions in tackles last season, and—despite playing safety—he racked up 4.5 sacks last year as well.
He’s got excellent ball skills in coverage, is heady and physical against both the pass and the run, and fills hard when taking on ball carriers. He was also a team captain this past year, is a known leader and tone-setter, and won Penn State’s “Iron Lion” award for his work in the weight room.
So why did he slide far enough that we decided to package a few picks and get him in the back half of the third round? Brown, like many hard-hitting safeties, needs to play a little bit more disciplined and under control. Sometimes he’s in such a hurry to make a play or a hit that he takes a bad angle or fails to wrap up. But really what made him slide the most is that he ran a 4.65 at the combine and a 4.58 at his pro day. Many NFL scouting departments don’t think safeties can be high-level players in the NFL if they don’t have plus speed. Of course, instincts and trigger speed will make a guy play a lot faster than his timed speed, and Lynch noted that based on our scouting department’s speed tracking data and Penn State’s GPS tracking, Brown was actually the second fastest of all safeties in this draft class.
If Brown sounds a lot like a safety we drafted in the fifth round out of USC two years ago, the comparisons are valid. Brown will likely start the season backing up Tashaun Gipson with plans for Brown to take over the starting role in his sophomore season. In the immediate future, he’ll likely be getting snaps in our three-safety looks and—given how strong he is as a blitzer and near the LOS—might get some looks as a big nickel as well.
K, Jake Moody, Michigan (Round 3, Pick 99)
According to the internet, all the good vibes from the Brown pick were quickly extinguished when the Niners picked a kicker just 12 spots later. But I understand the decision.
Robbie Gould is a free agent and is looking to play closer to home. Our trade for Zane Gonzalez was for a late round swap two years from now and includes no guaranteed money. And this was supposedly an exceptionally good class of kickers.
The Niners probably wanted to take Moody in the fourth round and avoid making him the highest-picked kicker since (gulp) Roberto Aguayo was picked by the Bucs in the second round back in 2015. For reference, Aguayo was the most accurate kicker in college football history, won the Lou Groza Award was a true freshman, declared for the draft after three years, then was promptly out of the league after converting only 71% of his kicks as a rookie. That said, the Niners didn’t have a fourth-round pick this year, and—given that the Patriots drafted another kicker just 13 picks later—there was a 0% chance Moody would be available the next time we were on the board. If Moody was our guy and we wanted him, we had to pick him with one of the picks at the bottom of the third round.
While Robbie’s regular-season efficiency was starting to waver a bit in his year-40 season, he’s still a career-perfect kicker in the playoffs, and—for a team with aspirations of contending for a Super Bowl—the coaching staff doesn’t want to have to worry about their kicker in high-pressure situations. Now, we just have to hope they picked the right guy.
FWIW, I’ve seen Moody kick a lot and that dude was as close to guaranteed as a college kicker can possibly be. In 2021 he converted 92% of his field goals en route to being named the Lou Groza Award Winner. In 2022, his efficiency dipped down to 82% (mostly due to being 3-of-7 on kicks over 50 yards), but he led the nation in field goals made. Just as importantly, his clutch kicking was immaculate. I can’t actually remember him faltering late in any close game, with a game-winner in icy conditions against Illinois, a big kick against Michigan State after the dreaded three consecutive timeouts to ice him, and converting a 59-yarder to end the half in the college football semifinal against TCU. The only 4th quarter field goal I can remember him missing was against Ohio State last year, and that one was from 57 yards out.
The other kicker in the running was the 2022 Lou Groza Award Winner, Chad Ryland (who ended up going to the Patriots). Ryland played at Eastern Michigan for four years before taking a grad transfer at Maryland. He’s got a bigger leg than Moody and touchbacks should be the norm for Ryland, but—given he played at Eastern and Maryland—he’s been far less tested in pressure situations. Also, Moody’s overall accuracy is better over a greater sample size. Ryland has more potential for booming field goals, but on anything under 50 yards, Moody was 48-of-52 (92.3%) over the past two years.
After Aguayo flamed out in such spectacular fashion, it’s hard to say anything is certain when it comes to kickers transitioning to the NFL. And if Tucker Kraft or Marte Mapu—two guys I really liked—were still around at 99, then I’d have been more upset about picking a specialist where we did. But given our options were drafting Moody or Ryland at the bottom of the third or—at best—settling for the third-best kicker in this draft class, I feel much better about securing the guy we like the most. And I definitely feel better about this than when we took a punter in the fourth round.
Even if drafting specialists before the late rounds is a total boner kill.
TE, Cameron Latu, Alabama (Round 3, Pick 101)
If Brown and Moody were known quantities in college, Latu is much more of a developmental wild card, as his draft grades ranged from the third-to-fifth round. I don’t know the actual stats, but this certainly seemed like the most tight end-heavy draft in recent memory. The depth of the class was hyped up for months in the lead-up to the draft, and 15 were drafted this weekend, a whopping 8 of them in rounds two and three. Latu capped that run at the end of the third and is intriguing both for what he’s accomplished and what he could be able to do down the road.
At 6-4, 242 pounds, Latu excels in the red zone, catching 12 touchdown passes over the past two seasons (8 in 2021, which was an Alabama TE record). While scouts were hoping he’d springboard his junior year into a massive 2022, he missed two games with an ankle/foot injury early in the season, which nagged him through the rest of the campaign.
While Latu played both in-line and split out in the slot and has reps blocking in schemes similar to ours (Bama apparently lifted a bunch of Niners runs after seeing how successful they were), he’s not the biggest or the most explosive player. He’s smoother than he is fast, and his paltry two missed tackles last season means he’s far from qualified for membership into the YAC Bros.
Since this is the highest we’ve picked a tight end since Vance McDonald, the Niners are clearly banking on Latu’s development unlocking another level of skill and—with increased knowledge and confidence—play speed than he’s shown thus far. Considering Latu was recruited to Alabama as a defensive end and didn’t switch over to offense until 2019, it’s a reasonable assumption. The Niners also believe that Latu’s 2022 injury depressed his draft stock a bit, as his play picked up the further away he got from the injury. This too seems fair, as Latu—in his first-ever start against Miami in 2021—broke as many tackles on a single touchdown catch as he did in the entirety of 2022. His junior tape shows a knack for open-field running that his senior film does not, and—even if he’s not a super sudden athlete—there’s likely more YAC potential than his athletic profile and senior stats would indicate. All that said, was this a reach?
If we were dead set on a tight end, then the other tight ends clustered around Latu included Davis Allen (Clemson), Josh Whyle (Cincinnati), and Zack Kuntz (Old Dominion). I’m okay saying Kuntz would NOT have been a better pick in the third. I know people love his size and athleticism, but he’s very much a project and may never have the power and bulk to be a solid blocker in the NFL. He also went in the seventh round. We need a tight end who can play sub snaps now, and—due to the fact that we ask our tight ends to block a lot—that guy can’t be a poor man’s Jimmy Graham-type. That need for an immediate dual-threat might have also pushed out Josh Whyle (who went to the Titans in the fifth). Whyle probably should have put up better numbers given the competition he was against, and while his height/weight/speed measurables are quite impressive, he seems to need some more time to develop. The most intriguing “what if” is probably Davis Allen, who is the least athletic of the bunch. Allen is a jump ball and contested catch maven—which could pair nicely with Kittle as a second tight end—and has some blocking potential. Equally as important (for this theoretical exercise), he went at the end of the fifth round. So we would have had a shot at him later. Latu seems like he has higher potential than Allen and is a bit safer and more pro-ready than Kuntz and Whyle, but—again—we’re comparing him to three dudes who were drafted in the fifth round or later. And that’s not including the guys we didn’t pick at other positions—Kelee Ringo, Blake Freeland of BYU—who went early in the fourth. Like with Moody, there’s a chance that missing a fourth rounder in this draft made us pick Latu earlier than we needed to.
Hopefully, Latu is ready to play early, because while he won’t be asked to be a full-time starter anytime soon, we’ve been looking for years for a guy who can play genuine snaps as a blocker and receiver to give George Kittle—who turns 30 this off-season—a breather. Woerner and Kroft were always more blockers. Ross Dwelley was more of a receiver/h-back. In Latu, we have someone who can theoretically handle both. In addition to prolonging Kittle’s career by giving him valuable snaps off, Latu will hopefully make for a nice weapon in double-tight formations in the red zone.
CB, Darrell Luter Jr., South Alabama (Round 5, Pick 155)
Darrell Luter greatly resembles the cadre of other cornerbacks who we’ve taken in the 5th round over the years. DJ Reed (2018), Deommodore Lenoir (2021), Samuel Womack (2022) were all—like Luter—outside corners in college who were undersized in some way, who the Niners believed could find a place in the nickel or—if they proved they could overcome their size limitations—outside.
Like Womack last year, Luter is speedy and long (his wingspan is greater than Richard Sherman’s), but could stand to add a little bulk and will face a sizable jump in competition after coming from a Group of 5 school. Luter is one of those guys who really fits our scheme, as he’s much better playing press and using his length to jam receivers at the LOS than he is sitting back in off-man. He’s got the speed and fluidity to excel at both, but he’s savvier through the route and at the catch point when he can body up with guys down the field. With 22 pass deflections and 5 picks over the past two years, his ball skills are solid, and he’s willing to mix it up as a tackler as well (even if adding some weight might help in that regard).
If we assume Isaiah Oliver gets the first shot to take over in the nickel, then Luter should slot in with the cluster of young cornerbacks who we’ve been cross-training both outside and in. That group includes Womack, Ambry Thomas (2021), and Qwuantrezz Knight (2022). I wouldn’t expect him to break through this year, but—given none of those three names he’s in competing with have established themselves as consistent contributors—the competition should be wide open for sub package snaps and next man up duties. Given Brown has some nickel capabilities and we’re likely to keep four safeties, there’s probably only space for five corners on our active roster. With three of those spots (Charvarius Ward, Lenoir, Oliver) seemingly accounted for, we’re looking at 3 or 4 dudes competing for two remaining spots and at least one pick from the past few drafts getting demoted to the practice squad or cut.
DE, Robert Beal Jr., Georgia (Round 5, Pick 173)
If you have any questions as to why Georgia is coming off back-to-back national championships, the fact that we’re drafting a guy in the fifth round who was only able to start ten games for them over the past two years is a good indicator. Beal was a stand-up OL in Georgia’s 3-4 scheme but played plenty as a rolled-down edge on passing downs. Despite being a high four-star recruit out of high school, he never cracked the full-time starting lineup, but it’s clear to see why he was recruited so highly. This dude has jets.
At 6’3 247 pounds, Beal ran a 4.44 at the combine (his fellow Georgia LB and pass rusher Nolan Smith ran a 4.39) and excels firing off the line, blowing past tackles with speed, and running the arc towards the quarterback. Despite having only ten starts over the past two years, Beal racked up 9.5 sacks during that time (more than Smith ever had) and drips with potential. And it’s not like he wasn’t productive. His 6.5 sacks in 2021 actually led Georgia’s team, despite sharing the field with first-round draft picks Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Devonta Wyatt, and Travon Walker—the #1 overall pick last year.
But the lack of starts points to expected issues and weaknesses. Beal doesn’t really have much of a pass rush plan or sequence of moves if he can’t beat his blocker immediately, and his recognition and technical skills could use some work. There are also some character flags that are at least worth mentioning. Beal planned to enroll early at Georgia but his multiple high school transfers scuttled those plans and—once he enrolled in school—he had to redshirt his first year due to being academically ineligible. He was also arrested on a misdemeanor charge in April of 2019, but it was for marijuana possession so… kinda who cares? Nothing major, but it’s worth mentioning when the rest of this class is filled with multi-year team captains.
Beal is another great scheme fit because the Niners have been looking for a genuine speed rusher opposite Bosa to at least moonlight in some Turbo sets ever since Dee Ford’s back rendered him perennially on the IR. Beal immediately becomes our most explosive edge rusher, and while Drake Jackson and Clelin Ferrell should get the majority of the edge snaps opposite Bosa, the hope is Beal can get some run on pure passing downs.
Long-term, we’d love if Beal could follow a similar career path as Josh Uche of the Patriots. Uche was an edge rusher specialist at Michigan who had to rotate out more than fans would have liked due to schematic fit and personnel issues around him. After getting picked in the second round by the Pats in 2020, his playing time slowly accumulated before he broke out with 11.5 sacks last season (despite starting zero games).
We have three defensive ends (Kerry Hyder, Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant) up for free agency next year (I’m not counting Bosa because there is no chance he gets to free agency), and while we’ve had a lot of success with our one-year rentals and veteran reclamation projects, the Niners also want to be able to build dudes up from within the program who can contribute for more than a season at a time. Additionally, we need juice on the edge, and juice is hard to find this late in the draft, so it’s not hard to see why we picked up Beal. While he’s very much a work-in-progress, if there’s a place where he can maximize his talent it’s in the wide 9 while playing under Kris Kocurek and Darryl Tapp.
LB, Dee Winters, TCU (Round 6, Pick 216)
Due to his position (off-ball linebacker) and smaller size (5’10 227 pounds) Winters slipped lower than most would have expected in the draft. He doesn’t have the size or bulk to regularly fight in phone booths and his stack-and-shed ability will likely never be great given those limitations. That said, Winters is a versatile, high-energy player who can run, hit, and make splash plays.
A senior captain who started every game for TCU over the past three seasons, Winters is a high-effort dude with good speed (4.49 forty) who is tough at the point of attack and is an excellent blitzer from the linebacker position (7.5 sacks last year). Our scheme relies heavily on linebackers with range who can play in space, and while Winters is a bit more stiff-hipped and less explosive than the dynamic duo we currently employ, it’s not hard to see how he could carve out a sub package role in our scheme by continuing to improve his read and react speed.
Since he isn’t an S-tier athlete, Winters’ lack of size may put a cap on his ceiling as a pro, but given how many former safeties we’ve shaped into linebackers, I wouldn’t count him out as a long-term regular contributor on defense. In the meantime, he should make an immediate splash on special teams, as he was a regular on TCU’s coverage teams and his speed at the linebacker position should make him a shoe-in for one of the gunner spots.
H-Back, Brayden Willis, Oklahoma (Round 7, Pick 247)
While listed as a tight end on draft boards, Willis is totally the heir apparent to Juice at fullback. Playing fullback, tight end, and wildcat QB, Willis had ten carries this year, threw a 24-yard touchdown, and led the Sooners in receiving with 514 yards and 7 touchdowns. While the idea of a tight end/fullback leading Oklahoma in receiving with 500 yards makes you wonder what year we’re in, Willis is a true do-it-all fullback.
He’s an excellent blocker, including on seal blocks—which should endear him quickly to Shanahan and Bobby Turner—and he should quickly pick up the gun run and wing blocking stuff we love to deploy given what he was asked to do in college. Coaches rave about his work ethic and leadership abilities. And while he’s no supreme athlete, he’s a nice route runner and natural hands catcher, lining up often in the slot but even catching the occasional goal line fade while at Oklahoma. This is the schematic fit to end all schematic fits.
Now remember, this is a backup fullback we just drafted. Heir apparent or not, even Juice—the best fullback in the game—only sees the field for about half of our offensive snaps, so Willis will need to find a way to stick on the active roster until it’s his time to shine. There’s a world where we roster four tight ends and both rookies make the active roster, and Willis could attempt to carve out a role as a Ross Dwelley replacement in year one, but that’s a lot to ask of a seventh-round rookie. Unsurprisingly, Willis’ best path to avoiding practice squad relegation (and potential poaching given how many Shanny disciples there are running around the league now), is via special teams, where he logged 845 career snaps in college. Most importantly, if he were to make the active team this year, we could have the absolutely ludicrous distinction of being the only team in the NFL with TWO fullbacks on their 53-man roster.
WR, Ronnie Bell, Michigan (Round 7, Pick 253)
A five-year college player, two-year captain, and highly respected team leader in Ann Arbor (he was a player-coach in 2021 after blowing out his ACL in the first game of the season), Bell came back for his victory lap and set career highs in nearly every receiving category last season while leading Michigan in receiving for the third time in the past four seasons.
He’ll block in the run game (he played for Jim Harbaugh after all), is slippery and smooth as a route runner, and—if you squint—you can see shades of a smaller Kendrick Bourne in his game. Bell doesn’t excel at any one thing—he’s not going to run away from anyone deep and he lacks ideal size and strength—and he’ll need to get better in tighter spaces and tighter windows, but his approach and savvy could let him carve out a role as a reliable first- and second-level receiver after some development.
While Danny Gray was a third-round pick last year, our fifth receiver position is largely up for grabs heading into OTAs and training camp. We’d love for Gray to seize the reins given his raw, unadulterated speed, but don’t be shocked if Bell or another training camp participant pushes him for that final spot.
LB, Jalen Graham, Purdue (Round 7, Pick 255)
Our last pick of the draft, Jalen Graham was an intelligent and versatile team leader for the Boilermakers who was asked to do a lot while being surrounded by less-than-ideal talent. More of a SAM linebacker who is better when he can be playing forward against the run, Graham is probably the most curious fit of all the players we drafted. While he looks the part and is quick to diagnose and trigger downhill, Graham’s lack of play speed and fluidity in space doesn’t seem to matchup all that well with what we ask of our linebackers when it comes to coverage (even our SAM linebackers). That said, Graham’s got a special teams background, and—as stated ad nauseam—that could be his best shot at sticking on the roster.
UDFAs
The Niners almost always find contributors from their undrafted free agent signings. Below are UDFAs who started or made major contributions during the six ShanaLynch years.
2022: RB Jordan Mason
2021: none
2020: RB JaMychal Hasty, RB Salvon Ahmed (poached from PS and started 4 games as a rookie), LB Jonas Griffith (traded due to lack of roster space to Broncos, starting 12 games over past 4 games there).
2019: LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DT Kevin Givens, LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles
2018: CB Emmanuel Moseley, RB Jeff Wilson, TE Ross Dwelley
2017: RB Matt Breida, WR Kendrick Bourne, QB Nick Mullens
It’s obviously harder now to make an imprint with the current quality of our team, but that’s enough of a track record to where it’s worth mentioning anyone who got the call for our 90-man off-season roster.
While our lack of offensive linemen selected as a major vote of confidence for Colton McKivitz (and, I guess, Jaylon Moore as well), we scooped up a bunch of dudes on the OL after the draft.
The headliner is Joey Fisher (Shepherd). He’s older (26) because he took three years off from football to work as a locksmith(!) with his dad before Shepherd gave him a shot. He returned the favor by starting three years (would have been four if they hadn’t canceled football during COVID) and being named a two-time D2 All-American. Shepherd absolutely has the size, body, power, and mentality to be an NFL lineman. The jump up in competition will be massive and they’ll have to figure out if he’s a guard or a tackle, but this is a high-upside pick who most thought would get his name called midway through Saturday. Fellow OL Corey Luciano (Washington) and Ilm Manning (Hawaii) will likely be interior guys, even if Manning started 60 games over 5 years at left tackle for the Rainbow Warriors.
Unable to draft one in the third round, the Niners added two running backs: Ronald Awatt (UTEP) and Khalan Laborn (Marshall). Laborn was a five-star recruit at Florida State who blew out his knee, played a bit, got kicked off the team, finished his bachelor’s degree as a student, then played one year at Marshall to deplete his eligibility. In that one year he rushed for 1513 yards and 16 TDs on 5.0 ypc (including 163 on five yards a pop at Notre Dame). Despite drafting Brayden Wilis, we did our annual duty and added another fullback to the 90-man, picking up Jack Colletto (Oregon State), who was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection as an all-purpose player in 2022 while winning the Paul Hornung Award for college football’s most versatile player. Colletto arrived in Corvallis as a QB, then played linebacker, before moving over to short-yardage running back. He’s probably the only player in college football with 50+ career passing attempts, rushing attempts, and tackles, and at the Senior Bowl he practiced on both offense (FB) and defense (LB), switching jerseys between practice periods.
Elsewhere on offense, we added receivers Shae Wyatt (Tulane) and Jadakis Bonds (Hampton), who—at 6’3 and 206 pounds—racked up 34 receiving touchdowns over four years with the Pirates.
On the defensive side, we picked up former Trey Lance teammate and two-time All-American defensive end Spencer Waege (North Dakota St.). He missed the last 12 games of 2021 with a torn ACL but came back this year to set career highs in sacks and TFLs while being named a first-team All-American. After playing at 265 he bulked up to 295 for the draft, so we’re crossing our fingers he can do a poor man’s Armstead impersonation.
Finally, we added linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin (Minnesota) and defensive backs Avery Young (Rutgers) and D’Shawn Jamison (Texas). Starting 40 games (and playing in 60) over five years, Jamison has strong athletic traits and stickiness in coverage, but is overall lacking in size and strength. He could wind up a developmental nickel, and—once again—it doesn’t help that he has extensive special teams experience, both as a return man (2 kicks and 1 punt returned for touchdowns in his career) and on coverage units (blocked a punt last year).
I’m sure there will be other names added as the days pass (we’re expected to add a fourth QB at some point), but that’s all as of now, and this write-up is already hilariously long. Congratulations to all the young men who we’ve brought into the fold and best of luck to them!
Go Niners! 👍🏈