Draft: 1st Round Preview
With more glaring roster holes and draft picks than we’ve had in years, replenishing the coffers will require a delicate balancing act between value and need and how that butts up against our team-building philosophies. We know the Niners love and value defensive linemen, so—given our depth chart and the surplus of talent at the defensive tackle position—it would theoretically make sense to take a DT at pick 11. But unless Mason Graham falls, doing so would likely satisfy need and team-building philosophy but not value. The meat of this DT class lies in the second half of the first round through the second day.
Similarly, there’s a good chance that one or two highly-touted cornerbacks could be had at 11. That’s also a need, and the value of a high-level starter at a premium position could make quite a lot of sense. But that doesn’t neatly align with our team-building philosophy, which wants to build our defense from the trenches out while mitigating the investment on our secondary. Whether it’s luck, good planning or (most likely) some combination of both, this draft’s positions of strengths mostly align quite well with our positions of need. But obtaining proper value while adhering strictly—but not dogmatically—to our team-building philosophy will be easier said than done. Which is why it’s probably worth talking about a trade down sooner rather than later.
To be clear, I am NOT a “trade down all the time” analytically-inclined spreadsheet bro. If we’re at 11 and only have one guy left on our board with a first-round grade, we should trust our scouting department and draft that guy. The “spray and pray” approach is a fun theoretical exercise for math minds and dweeby Twitter analysts but a terrible way to build a winning team. You need to develop a team-building philosophy, hire the right people to execute it, and empower them to make the right decisions. If you never trust them to make the right call, I can guarantee they never will.
But this draft class lacks consensus up top and has quality depth throughout, including many strong players through its first two days. Don’t be surprised if guys listed in the 30’s and 40’s in prospect rankings start coming off the board in the 10’s and 20’s. Teams’ big boards are going to differ wildly, and that variance means there’s tremendous value potential in trading down.
I have no idea how many players the Niners have given first-round grades, but—if I were them–I’d start planting the idea through sources in the league and the media that our number is somewhere in the high teens (or higher). Whether our number is higher or lower than that is unimportant. We just want to send out the bat signal and let people know that–once we’re on the board at 11–give us a ring and let’s make a deal.
But if pick 11 comes along and our first-round graded players are gone, or–better yet–a high number of them remain, we should be moving down and accumulating value. From 11, a drop five spots is worth a high third-rounder. A ten-spot drop is worth another second, or–perhaps–a future first. The greater the variance in scouting opinions at the top of the draft, the more teams could be interested in moving up to secure their guys–even if their guys don’t overlap at all with ours. Those are the kinds of win-win trades that can drive demand and increase return. So let’s hope we’ve got a list of first-round-graded prospects that stretches well into the late teens (or further) and that we can make a move down to snag one while securing excess draft capital in the process.
THE CONTENDERS
I separated potential candidates at pick 11 into four tiers based on value and personal excitement. Everyone in these tiers feels like a fit and/or has been mocked to us at 11—thus warranting discussion. Everyone else who is expected to go outside the first round (as well as trade down exclusive candidates) will be included in position-specific breakdowns to come. I haven’t included everyone with first-round grades here, as some will be long gone by the time we pick (Travis Hunter, Abdul Carter), some just don’t make sense given our roster composition (Ashton Jeanty), and others could go in the first round but not feasibly as high as 11.
Tiers are in descending order. The number next to each prospect’s name denotes their “consensus” big board ranking at the time of writing and determines their order within each tier. The first two tiers are all guys whom I can confidently say have first-round grades. The third and fourth? Well… as you’ll see, that’s more of a grab bag.
SEND IT!!!
These guys would need to slip below current projections to get to us, but–if they’re available–feel like slam-dunk combinations of value, scheme, and need.
4. DT, Mason Graham - Michigan
6-3.5, 296 lbs.
A dominant interior presence and consensus top 5 player, Graham showed up to the combine 24 pounds lighter than his listed weight and measured in with shorter than average arms. Due to this, there’s been some talk of him slipping down draft boards. We can only dream. This is the sort of big braining shit that gets people fired when they start to overthink things. I don’t think Graham falls, but if he does, picking him is a no-brainer.
Graham is an unblockable force in the center of the defensive line, with a strong first step, a wrestler background that shows, and excellent strength while stacking and ragdolling defenders. He can shoot into the backfield or play the piano down the line of scrimmage in the run game. And while he may not have the pure size and length to give him that Jalen Carter/Quinnen Williams-style upside, I think people vastly overrate length along the interior for a certain type of prospect.
Scouts want to imagine DTs as these long-limbed 350-pounders who push away offensive linemen like a standing bench press before ripping into the backfield. But there’s an entirely different style of interior lineman–the explosive, burly, brick wall types–who have dominated for decades–the Warren Sapps and Aaron Donalds of the world, who win with leverage and quickness and blow past (or through) blockers en route to the quarterback. I’m not saying Graham will reach those heights, but this is a high-floor prospect whose ceiling is far less limited than some would lead you to believe.
Shades of: Those giant stone blocks with faces that fall down and crush Mario
6. OT, Armand Membou, Missouri
6-4, 332 lbs.
There are two types of late risers in the draft process: guys who shoot up the rankings because of their post-season measurements, testing numbers, and bowl game performances, and guys who rise simply because they were less heralded entering the season and it took a while for scouts to get to their film. Armand Membou is both.
Membou is my annual blue ball award winner of the year—a player whom I got wind of just slightly before the masses and got excited about the Niners getting… until he ascended to the point where he’ll almost certainly be off the board before we’re picking. I’m far from an OL expert, but I do understand physics, and the kind of athleticism, foot quickness, and movement skills Membou (right tackle, #79) shows at 332 pounds is not normal:
An excellent athlete who put up a stellar final season in Missouri’s zone-heavy offense, Membou started gathering love around the holidays as scouts got around to his tape. At the time a cuspy first-rounder, Membou vaulted into the top ten after measuring much better than expected and blowing up the combine with a testing performance typically reserved for the Trent Williams’ and Tristan Wirfs’ of the world. Given there are so few guys like them on this planet and even fewer who have multiple solid seasons of college tape to back up their athleticism, Membou will likely be the first OT off the board.
His tape shows a guy with abnormally quick feet and body control who is well-versed in the exact kinds of runs we emphasize in our offense and turned 21 less than a month ago. His height (6’4”) and arm length (33 ½”) are both on the smaller side for a tackle, but it’s not an issue you see on tape, and I do think it’s worth noting that both Rashawn Slater and Penei Sewell–two of the best tackles in football–have shorter arms than Membou. When you have this kind of athletic profile, minor length issues are often overstated. The fit, need, and upside are all slam-dunk matches with what we need, and–potentially–enough to actually make us spend a high pick on an offensive tackle. If he’s still there when we’re picking at 11.
Shades of: Tristan Wirfs / Rashawn Slater
Thumbs Up Emoji
Each of these guys has a solid first-round grade and–with one exception–high professional floors. If we pick any of them, it would be surprising if they weren’t at least a good starter sooner rather than later. But whether it’s due to positional value, team-building philosophy, or our current depth chart, picking any of them this high in the draft presents a potentially complicated value proposition.
5. TE, Tyler Warren, Penn State
6-5.5, 256 lbs.
I’m a big Tyler Warren fan, but #5 on the consensus big board seems a bit misleading. We’re less than a year from Brock Bowers–a generational tight end and the #1 receiving threat on a team that won multiple national championships–going 13th to the Raiders due to positional value. These rankings are meant to determine pure value, not positional, but five still feels high.
That said, I think he goes higher than Bowers did, and I think there’s a better than 50/50 chance he goes before we’re on the board. Even in a deep tight end class, Warren’s size (nearly as big as Gronk), versatility (he rushed for 218 yards and four scores this season…), and unreal production while operating as the only real receiving threat for a team that went deep into the CFP is sure to appeal to many teams. This is a guy who had a higher contested catch rate (61.9% -> 60%) and nearly as many yards per route run (2.78 -> 2.87) as Tet McMillan, a 6-5 jump ball merchant and perhaps the top wideout in this class. Combine that with the relative weakness of the receiver class, and Warren could easily climb into the top ten.
If there are questions about Warren’s game, they’d revolve around his burst and ability to beat man coverage (just because he didn’t face much this season). But the major question with Warren is less about his ability and more about need and positional value. I can’t imagine he does NOT have a first-round grade from our scouts. And if we take a tight end early, I will write a lengthy analysis of how sick it could be for us to reassert our offensive identity by spamming double tight stretch until we’ve buried a dozen alley defenders. But we have three dudes on the roster who can effectively play tight end. We just paid two of them. Would this be the best team-building strategy?
IMO, Warren is unique enough–and the idea of us piloting our run game out of legit 12 personnel intriguing enough–that I’d be onboard with the selection. Even if it means temporarily neglecting some sizable roster holes.
Shades of: The create-a-player Shanahan makes in Madden
6. CB, Will Johnson, Michigan
6-2, 194 lbs.
Big and fluid with great instincts and elite ball skills, Johnson was a five-star recruit and Freshman All-American in 2022 before launching to First Team-All American status as a sophomore and being named the defensive MVP of the National Championship game. He locked down Marvin Harrison Jr in The Game as a true freshman. He totaled nine picks–three returned for touchdowns–in only 32 career games. After his freshman season and his sophomore season, he was tabbed a shoe-in for a top 5 selection in 2025. But his junior year didn’t go as planned.
Johnson missed half the 2024 season dealing with a turf toe injury, then had a hammy flare-up that’s caused him to delay Pro Day testing until days before the draft. While he still put up impressive highlights, he wasn’t nearly as consistent in 2024 under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, and there was a feeling that he might have been coasting until the draft. He’s a bit of a gambler, and questions have arisen about his catch-up speed, so his testing (which won’t happen until days before the draft) will be critical. Given the high number of missed games, durability is a concern as well. Of the seven prospects in this tier and the one above, Johnson is the most boom-or-bust.
That said… this is a 6’2” 194-pound corner with elite ball skills, whose potential weaknesses (catchup speed, burst) are minimized by our scheme–a scheme that also happens to highlight his greatest strengths (instincts, route recognition, playmaking). It’s hard to watch this tape and not come away thinking of his potential in our defense.
Johnson could quite easily be the best DB in this draft and–eventually–one of the better corners in the NFL. I don’t think we want to take a corner this high in the draft, but–depending on who’s available–Johnson’s overall talent level and scheme fit could be too hard to pass up.
Shades of: Pat Surtain II (with a dash of Derek Stingley’s phoned-in junior year)
10. TE, Colston Loveland, Michigan
6-6, 248 lbs.
Lost in the Tyler Warren hype is the fact that Loveland is right on his heels for the TE1 spot. Warren is savvier, bigger, a better in-line blocker, and more versatile, but Loveland is more explosive, more proven against man coverage, and as good—if not better—at acrobatic catches down the field. A lot of people forgot about him because his 2024 production was wrecked by poor quarterback play and an offense so devoid of other pass catchers that he received an unhealthy 39.6% target share, but this is the rare tight end who is a three-level winner against man coverage and has the size and strength to do it from an in-line position or split-out wide.
There are several big, athletic dudes with high receiving potential in this tight end class, but what separates Loveland from the cluster of guys below him with second-day grades is that he plays bigger and stronger than most of them, he’s already shown he can play with his hand in the ground, and he can win early as well as late against man and zone coverage. A lot of these long, athletic dudes with tantalizing downfield production have issues in the NFL because they can’t win early unless it's on stick routes and play-action dump-offs. They need clean runways and a high density of deep shots to utilize that athleticism, and—at tight end—those opportunities can be hard to manufacture with regularity. Either that or because they just can’t block in-line and actually play tight end (Kyle Pitts). But Loveland can win deep or intermediate or split out wide and shake a dude in space to open up on a slant route. His separation skills pop on tape, and that’s not a sentence you hear often about tight ends. He’s not the Swiss Army Knife Warren is, but he’s got very real Pro Bowl potential in his own right.
Shades of: Dallas Goedert / Sam LaPorta
11. OT/OG, Will Campbell, LSU
6-6, 319 lbs.
As a freshman at LSU, Will Campbell started every game at LT and was a freshman All-American. As a sophomore, he started every game at LT and was first team All-SEC. As a junior, he started every game at LT and was first team All-American. He was a two-year captain and the only offensive lineman in the history of the school to be named the team’s “top playmaker.” This isn’t New Mexico State; this is LSU. This is a team that always has playmakers. He’s also 6’6,” ran a sub 5.0 forty, and tested well in every athletic drill. So why isn’t he ranked higher?
Will Campbell could still be the first offensive lineman off the board, but if he’s not, it’s likely due to his arm length. At tackle, teams want linemen with–ideally–34” arms, with 33” considered the minimum. There are exceptions to this rule, but not many. Of the 67 offensive tackles who played at least 500 snaps this past season, only 9% of them had arm lengths shorter than 33 inches. Campbell’s are 32 ⅝. And while his tape is overall excellent, some of the issues he’s shown–like oversetting against wide alignments and struggles while moving laterally–could be partially attributed to his lack of length. It’s one thing for a measurable to be an outlier. It’s another when that outlier shows up on tape.
To be clear, Campbell will be a good pro–it’s just a matter of where. But while Membou and some other linemen in this class are considered cuspy tackle prospects, Campbell is soundly below most teams’ threshold for tackle length. I personally think you should still at least try him outside. I understand the concerns, but this guy’s athleticism and tape seem to point more towards a “positive outlier” path than the other way around. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if—five years from now—Campbell is excelling and everyone is like “why’d we talk about arm length for so long?” And if it doesn’t work out, your consolation prize is an excellent guard protecting a shorter quarterback. But–given our pickiness at selecting offensive linemen through the years–I can’t imagine we draft Campbell here unless we’re confident he can stick at tackle. It’s hard enough to get us to draft a tackle in the first round. At 11, I can’t imagine we’d want a guard.
Shades of: Honestly… one of those top-flight guards who converted from tackle like Zack Martin or Brandon Scherff.
15. DB, Jahdae Barron, Texas
5-11, 194 lbs.
Once again, defensive back probably isn’t where we wanna go at 11. But it helps when the DB in question can feasibly play all five positions in the secondary. Entering the season, Barron was thought to be “just a nickel,” but he posted career numbers as a fifth-year senior while amassing nearly 700 snaps at outside corner–breaking up 11 passes and picking off another five while allowing a 34.1 opposing QB rating and zero touchdowns. He’s also feisty in the run game.
Barron tested well, with his 4.39 forty and 35” vertical assuaging some concerns about his top-end speed and athleticism, but there are still questions as to how he holds up in man coverage, especially down the field. Luckily, we run as much zone as anyone, and zone is where his instincts, route recognition, and football IQ shine brightest.
We don’t yet know what sort of schematic adjustments Saleh has in store for our defense, but the selection of Barron–another versatile DB to pair with Lenoir and Green–could make for a level of DB interchangeability that we haven’t seen before.
Shades of: Brian Branch with outside corner ability
F*ck It, Why Not?
I’m really stomping on my upcoming defensive end write-up here, but all three guys in this tier are high-variance, upside-play edges. Since it’s a need that fits our team-building philosophy, they should be mentioned as guys who could feasibly hop up a tier on our big board. Are they all first-rounded graded players? Maybe not. But I’m confident all three will be picked somewhere in the first round.
8. DE, Jalon Walker, Georgia
6-1, 243 lbs.
There are two “Micah Parsons-looking” dudes in this draft. One plays for Penn State, wears Micah’s number, and will be gone in the first three picks of the draft. The other is Jalon Walker.
For our purposes, I’m not going to talk about Jalon Walker the linebacker, because if we’re picking him for our scheme at this draft position, he’s playing edge. For each of the past two years, Walker led Georgia in sacks despite playing a grand total of 400 snaps along the defensive line and never totaling more than 200 pass rush snaps in a single season. Naturally, that meant his pass rush efficiency was good, with a 17.2% pass rush win rate (PWR) that ranked just outside the top 50 in the country. He’s a great athlete with an elite first step and seems to have a natural understanding of how to set up blockers to leverage his quickness, but right now he wins mostly with tenacity and tremendous athleticism. Is he a tweener with subpar technique at both positions? Or will he take massive strides forward as a pass rusher when–for the first time ever–he gets to focus on one position?
Then, there’s the size problem. Walker plays hard and is physical, but–at 243 pounds–he’s going to have some problems when teams run at him. If we were a 3-4 defense? I wouldn’t care. His disruptive capabilities and the ability to put him on or off the line mitigate those concerns. But in our defense? After a season of getting gashed on the ground with a clear mandate to improve the run defense? Does Walker even hit our size threshold for a starting defensive end?
All of these questions are valid, and I don’t have the answer for any of them. Walker is a prospect with lots of tools, lots of potential, and a whole helluva lot of projection involved. This is as boom or bust as you get this high in the draft. So why is he even being listed here? Because, despite all those questions, Walker is still–on more boards than not–a top ten talent. If we ran a 3-4 defense, he’d be up there for me as well. The athleticism and the flashes are that good. And his leadership skills and work ethic—lauded throughout the Georgia program—give him a better shot to reach that potential than most. The upside is clear. If he hits and becomes an elite speed rusher opposite Bosa, it’ll blow the absolute roof off our defensive ceiling for the next decade.
Shades of: Diet Micah Parsons
15. DE, Mykel Williams, Georgia
6-5, 260 lbs.
Similar to Will Johnson, Mykel Williams was long presumed to be a top 10 draft pick, but a nagging ankle injury prevented him from taking steps forward as a pass rusher in 2024. Throw in a post-draft process in which he ran a 4.75 forty at his pro day, and he’s likely to be on the board when we’re picking. In Williams’ defense, his game is based less on his burst (which is just average) and more on his build, length, strength, and overall movement skills. He’s got heavy and active hands and plays the game violently, which shows itself regularly in the run game but is seen only in flashes while rushing the passer (4 sacks in two games vs. Texas this year).
His build and those flashes have made many scouts bullish on his trajectory as a pass rusher, but his 11.1% PWR and 26 total pressures hammer home the fact that Williams’ breakthrough–assuming it happens at all–could be further down the road than expected. Given the salary we’ve shed, it would be hard to say we’re in a hurry, and Williams could at least play as a base end until he takes steps forward as a pass rusher, but the spectre of Javon Kinlaw–another big brawler without plus quickness and burst–looms large. I’ll admit, I’m not as high on Williams as everyone else seems to be—maybe because I’ve only seen him play on his bum ankle. But enough people who know what they’re talking about are confident in his trajectory that I’ll put my trust in Kocurek if we end up drafting him.
Shades of: Ezekiel Ansah
16. DE, Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M
6-5, 267 lbs.
If you’re looking for a different flavor of “traits-over-production flyer with developmental upside,” Stewart’s combination of size and athleticism (4.59 forty, 40” vert) is hard to come by. His ten-yard split is faster than Von Miller’s and three one-hundredths of a second slower than Nick Bosa’s. According to his RAS score, which aggregates all testing info and measurements and compares it to historical marks dating back to 1987, Stewart’s combination of size and athleticism is the 3rd-best on record for a defensive end.
He’s big, super long, plays with good power and burst, and was one of PFF’s top-graded run defenders last season. But as a pass rusher, he’s (you guessed it) a project. In each of his three years in college, he tallied exactly 1.5(!) sacks. 4.5 career sacks isn’t exactly bringing the boys to the yard, and I booted up his film expecting to be disappointed. Consider me surprised. Stewart’s far more disruptive than his stats on tape, and his positive underlying metrics and steady improvement are worth noting. Each season, his PFF grades have increased alongside his pressure totals, which went from 14 to 26 to a respectable 39 last season. It’s also worth noting that Stewart’s size means he can eventually play inside snaps on passing downs and be a key component of the twist games that made guys like Arden Key and Charles Omenihu so valuable in our rotation.
Stewart could be a notch further developed than people think, but—even if he is—he’ll take some time to develop. For all his flashes on tape, he got stonewalled by top pass blockers like Campbell and Membou, and his pressures fell off a cliff to end the season. But like Williams above him, his play against the run is pro-ready, giving him some runway to figure things out as a pass rusher.
Shades of: Danielle Hunter
Patience Is a Virtue
The last four guys on this list all share two things in common: (1) they’re linemen, and (2) there’s considerable debate on how many of them will go in the first round versus the second. Given that, there could be some opportunity cost lost in picking any of them at 11. Some I like more than others, but if we’re getting any of them, it would preferably be after a trade down. Or, better yet, in the second round. So why are they here? Because they’ve been mock drafted to us enough that I figure they’re all at least worth mentioning.
18. OT, Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas
6-5, 315 lbs.
A three-year starter who steadily ascended from Freshman All-American to First-Team All-Big 12 to First-Team All-American, Banks is a good athlete with a lot of starting experience, whose film and counting stats (pressures allowed, pressure %) were impressive enough for him to win the Outland Trophy this season. On paper, his resume is just as strong as Will Campbell's. But while all the pieces are there, I don’t feel like Banks’ tape always matches the hype. He struggles too much in the second stage of blocks and winds up on the ground far too often because of it. While the athleticism is there, his foot speed and activity don’t always match it. And despite having the same arm length as Membou, Banks seems to lean out of his frame and get overextended in a way where he becomes susceptible to late rep losses and push-pull maneuvers.
To be fair, Membou is a better athlete, but he also seems to play more to his strengths and away from his weaknesses. He knows his length is a notch below ideal, so he keeps his feet moving and gets to his spots before defenders can take advantage of it. That doesn’t always seem to be the case with Banks, which is a bit worrisome given he’s started three straight years at left tackle. Perhaps the uptick in competition will get him to clean things up. Or perhaps this is just a flaw in his game. That said, if you told me we were getting Banks at guard, I would be thrilled. He brings a ton of power and physicality in the run game, is adept at blocking in space and climbing to the second level (despite sometimes slower feet), and many of the concerns he has outside are minimized if he is bumped down to guard. But that’s a steep price at 11.
Shades of: Peter Skoronski
22. Walter Nolen, Ole Miss
6-4, 296 lbs.
A former No.1 overall high school recruit, Nolen is big and strong and has the explosive first step to cause havoc in our scheme. He’s a high-effort guy with good overall movement skills, great power, and the size and athletic profile to project to post-season accolades down the road. But there are inefficiencies in his game.
At the moment, Nolen wins early but not late. He relies too much on beating his blocker to the spot or powering through them, and when he doesn’t win quickly, he can get into issues with his pad level and disengagement skills. Granted, he wins quickly a lot, and he has some moves to help get him there (which bodes well for the future). But one of the hardest things to predict in d-line development is whether or not a player can–in the heat of a game–formulate and execute a pass rush plan when he doesn’t win right off the bat. It’s those secondary moves, and the fluidity and savvy to move smoothly through them, that will likely determine whether Nolen hits his considerable ceiling as a pro.
The fit makes a lot of sense, which is probably why Nolen gets mock drafted to us so often. But there’s plenty of debate on how far along he is, which is probably why—in those same mocks—Nolen is equally likely to go to us in the first or second round. 11 seems a bit early. 43 seems optimistic. But if the Niners like how he’s wired, he’s a nice blend of potential and need.
Shades of: Ed Oliver
25. OT, Josh Simmons, Ohio State
6-5, 317 lbs.
A loose and athletic tackle who took a big step forward this season, Simmons was on a potential path to OT1 status before a knee injury derailed his season. While he dominated in the early season, it was mostly in blowouts against lesser competition (although he did stonewall Mike Green of Marshall), so there’s some question over how he would have held up against the meat of the schedule. But those are theoreticals beyond Simmons’ control. He’s a bit more positional than powerful and could use added strength across his game, but he’s a really good athlete who moves well in the box or out in space and was rapidly ascending before his injury. I’m probably a shade higher on him than most, but–if the medicals check out–the fit and upside are nice. As is the potential value of a long-term tackle taken outside the top ten.
Shades of: Christian Darrisaw
27. DT, Derrick Harmon, Oregon
6-4.5, 313 lbs.
After the Niners sent a massive contingent to Oregon’s pro day and had dinner with HC Dan Lanning afterward, I would be SHOCKED if we don’t draft an Oregon Duck this year. The way Lynch talked about Lanning resembled the way we’ve talked about “insider” connections in the past—guys whose brains we’ve picked to get a clearer picture on prospects of interest. Herm Edwards vouching for Brandon Aiyuk’s athleticism comes to mind. The Notre Dame OL coach leading us to Mike McGlinchey and Aaron Banks is another example. And of the Ducks, Harmon is the highest touted.
Harmon’s pass rush figures are staggering. Per PFF, Mason Graham had 34 pressures and a 13.9% pass rush win rate (PWR). Walter Nolen had 35 pressures and a 10.9% PWR. Harmon tallied a whopping 55(!) pressures and a 17.9% PWR. That’s 11 more hurries than any other DT in FBS and tied for 12th-best in the country with first-round edge prospect James Pearce Jr. There wasn’t a more disruptive interior lineman in the country. Then he went to the combine and measured in at 6’4.5 and 313 pounds with long 34 ⅜” arms and ran a sub 5.0 forty. So why isn’t he a top 10 lock?
The questions mainly lie in his finishing ability. You’d prefer 55 pressures to result in more than 12 QB hits and 5 sacks. By comparison, potential No.1 overall Abdul Carter’s 66 pressures resulted in 23 QB hits and 13 sacks. It would be one thing if this felt like a statistical aberration, but Harmon’s lack of finish can be tied to some physical limitations. He’s high-cut, with a lot of his weight in the upper half, which makes his hips a bit stiff, and he sometimes gets reckless in his pass rush, giving up rush lanes. He’s also quick laterally but not supremely explosive off the line. So while his strength and slipperiness and hand usage will get him into NFL backfields, he feels destined to miss some sacks once he does. That points more to a guy who causes havoc (potentially quite a lot of it) as part of a swarming pass rush but may never be a consistent sack man.
To be clear, that’s not the worst thing in the world, and the fact that Harmon is strong anchoring against the run and can take on double teams gives him a level of two-way ability that many prospects lack–even if his personal sack numbers may not be stellar. We often tout how there are good missed tackles and bad missed tackles. If Harmon is a catalyst of the good kind–aggressively forcing quarterbacks and ballcarriers into help defenders who can clean things up–that’s still valuable. But I can’t tell if our scheme is a good fit or if he’d be best as a movable piece and pass rush enabler in a scheme that sends extra rushers from unexpected places.
Shades of: DaQuan Jones
TRADE THEORETICALS
Let’s operate under the very safe assumption that Cam Ward, Abdul Carter, and Travis Hunter all go in the top ten. That would give us a highly likely chance of at least one of the seven guys in our two highest tiers being available at 11. But unless someone from the top tier falls to us, we should think hard about trading down. While there are likely to be good players on the board at 11, the meat of this draft class feels clustered more towards the second day, and a trade down would likely net additional selections in the second or third round to take advantage of that.
So what could a trade down look like? It mostly comes down to who is still on the board once we’re on the clock and how much urgency we can stoke for our specific draft slot–urgency that comes from the needs of the teams right behind us, overall positional value, and the number of potential bidders on a specific player.
For instance, EDGE RUSHERS are always in high demand, and–at 11–we could feasibly gift someone Jalon Walker, Shemar Stewart, Mykel Williams, or Mike Green. Let’s say the Bengals, who are in a contract stand-off with Trey Hendrickson, want to move up for an edge. They could pitch a trade that looks like this:
Bengals receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 17th pick, 81st pick (3rd round), and 153rd pick (5th round)
CORNERBACKS can also drive demand, especially ones with feasible CB1 chops. If Will Johnson falls to us, suitors are likely. If the Packers are looking for an aggressive move into the post-Jaire Alexander era, they could offer something like this:
Packers receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 23rd, 54th (2nd round), and 2026 fourth-rounder
Falling QUARTERBACKS often lead to trades, so what if Shedeur Sanders gets to us at 11? The positional value is obvious: quarterbacks. But the rest of the equation is murky. The majority of teams in need of a QB would have already passed on Sanders in the top ten, meaning fewer suitors for his talents and less urgency for someone to move up to 11 when they could wait a few spots and give up less to obtain him later. But assuming there’s a bidding war involving future firsts (or at least, the thought of one), the Steelers could offer this:
Steelers receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 21st pick, 52nd (3rd round), and a 2026 second-rounder
The Cowboys pick one slot after us, so if we’re looking at their roster holes as a means to drive demand for our pick, their need for a second wide receiver has existed for the better part of the last decade. Let’s say the Chargers want to give Herbert a TRUE NO.1 WR with Tet McMillan (or Harbaugh wants to reunite with TE Colston Loveland). They could offer something like this:
Chargers receive: 11th pick
49ers receive: 22nd pick, 55th (2nd round), and 199th (6th round)
But of all the potential trades, a move up for ASHTON JEANTY hits the most marks. Everyone in the league has him as a first-round pick, so demand is there. The Cowboys have a desperate and public need for a running back one spot behind us, boosting urgency for our specific draft slot. The Broncos need to add talent around Bo Nix and surely aren’t entering the season with Jaleel McLaughlin as their only running back. Sean Payton knows the value of a running back who is a threat on the ground and through the air. They could pitch something like this:
Broncos receive: 11th pick and potential Day 3 pick (late 4th or later)
49ers receive: 20th pick, 51st (2nd round)
Of course, this is all strictly academic, but it does point to the many trade-down options that could be on the table at 11 and the value we could gain by jumping down a few spots. In this class, an extra second could easily net a starting defensive tackle or cornerback. An extra third could get us a starting linebacker, a rotational end with future starter chops, or one of any number of high upside fliers. There are a few guys I’d be thrilled to get at 11 and many others who I’d be happy with, but if we really want to start a youth movement, trading down could end up our best option.
Next up, we’ll go position-by-position to look at guys we might pick in the later rounds of the draft.
Go Niners 🏈👍