New Team, Who Dis?

Remember when I said we wouldn’t be spending much in free agency? Well… that was an understatement.

On the first day of free agency in an off-season that had long been earmarked for change, the Niners made history. Just not the kind you celebrate. With our unsigned and released players garnering a combined $321 million in new contracts and the new deals we gave out totaling… $37 million, our $284 million spending deficit was the greatest in NFL history.

Woof.

Dre. Deebo. Huf. Ward. This was a likable crop of guys who made some of the biggest plays of the current era–plays that will forever be seared into our memories. If this is the end of our run of contention, then March 10th, 20225 will mark a sad curtain call on a group of players and team who got so close but never made it over the hump. But if there’s solace to be had in what transpired at the top of this month, it’s that this does not have to be the end of our run. In fact, how we approached this off-season was (mostly) indicative of a team that wants to reload and retool as quickly as possible and is willing to take some lumps to do so. Or… we’ve become cheap bitches overnight. But it’s far too early to make that assumption.

In a vacuum, the large majority of deals and departures made sense. I don’t wanna pay Hufanga $15M/yr. I certainly don’t want to pay Jaylon Moore $15M/yr. But before I get into what our current depth chart looks like as we approach the draft, I do want to look at three specific departures that raised eyebrows and gave us plenty of information about how we’re approaching the next few years. 

First off, let’s look at the rapid dissolution of our defensive line. We all knew Hargrave was on his way out, but the releases of Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins signaled a clear shift in this off-season’s philosophy. Both of these guys were on reasonable veteran deals. Both would be past 30 by next season. Neither were earmarked for our team come 2026, so we let go of them now. This is the “tear the bandaid off” approach. Floyd’s multiple void years would have resulted in a dead cap hit next season when his contract lapsed, so we’re getting that out of the way now to get more space next year. Collins… well, we aren’t really saving jack by letting him go.

This is the clearest indicator that we’re not only going young but also clearing out the cap space and snaps to ensure we HAVE to play the young guys we bring in. With both Floyd and Collins seen as one-year players, we moved on from them so that their snaps could go to guys like Evan Anderson and Sam O. and the–likely many–defensive linemen we’re going to add in this year’s draft. 

There will be some tough days during this process. Potentially quite a few. But the goal is for this overhaul to result in a defensive line that is sustainable with multiple cost-controlled pieces–rather than one that constantly relies on veterans on short-term deals. We’ve talked in the past about how important defensive line sustainability is in running this kind of defense. This is the first step (of many) towards trying to rebuild the DL pipeline that carried our defense for years. 

But I am going to point out one move that was more of a head-scratcher. In what is likely my last (and most futile) attempt to stump for Dre Greenlaw, we let him go to the Broncos on a 3-year/$31.5M pact. This deal, which includes $13.5M guaranteed, has zero void years, allows for an out after one season that would only cost $4M in dead cap space, and has a $10.5M AAV that ranks 29th among linebackers and 9th among inside linebackers (as 3-4 rush ends typically dominate the LB market). This is a reasonable deal for a 27-year-old locker room fixture with a team-friendly exit hatch after one year if he never returns to his previous form. We could have easily matched this, and reports have come in that we tried to do just that after he soft-committed to the Broncos.

People like to talk about sports as the ultimate “results-based” industry. It all comes down to wins and losses. But while binary “success” metrics are easier to come by in the sporting world, this industry, like every other one, still comes down to the process. You may win. You may lose. You may benefit or be the victim of good or bad luck. But the process is what dictates consistency. It’s the surest and most controllable variable towards sustained success. The Niners know more about Dre’s medicals than anyone. Certainly more than me. But there shouldn’t be any situation where a priority free agent walks and then we later try to pull him back by matching or besting the contract. This feels like lowball negotiations gone awry or management indecisiveness, or both. This feels like bad process. And if this becomes a trend in how we negotiate our contracts and determine player value, that could spell trouble.

Regardless, the Niners’ goals for the 2025 season and beyond are quite clear. This is an overt attempt to pull off the “remodel, not rebuild” strategy that the Rams accomplished back in 2022, when–coming off a disappointing season just one year removed from a Super Bowl–they jettisoned a ton of veteran starters, played a bunch of rookies, and swallowed a fat dead cap hit into a season in which they hit their stride late en route to a 10-7 record. The Niners hope to pull off something similar while setting us up for another era of success. On paper, that’s certainly possible.

High dead cap figures are far from a death knell in the NFL. The Broncos finished 2024 with $90M in dead cap but made the playoffs. The Bucs, Rams, and Packers were 1st, 2nd, and 4th in dead cap the year before that. All three made the playoffs. When healthy, the Niners–with a league-leading $87M in dead cap–have a better core than any of those teams did. We’ve got the best tight end and off-ball linebacker in football, top 5 performers at DE, OT, and RB, young players at QB and WR who were All-Pros just a year ago, a thoroughly impressive rising sophomore class, and–at the moment–11 picks in both of the next two drafts. 

Remember, this is not the NBA. This is not the MLB. With 53-man rosters, 11 men on the field at all times, a single elimination playoff, and an oblong ball that is thrown, kicked, and handled outside in the winter, contender status in the NFL isn’t as binary as the other major American pro sports. Contention windows open and close more quickly, but they can also be pried open indefinitely if you play your cards right. While the top of this month was bleak, we could be back to contender status in no time. But that starts with the draft. It can’t be like the horrid 2022 and 2023 classes. It’s gotta be like 2024.

We need another banger.

NEEDS (there are more now!)

Quarterback: Purdy’s new deal will be a litmus test for our management teams’ ability to rebound after feeling snake-bitten by their deals a year ago. Mac Jones is a solid addition as a backup. Just cause I hated him at No.3 years ago, doesn’t mean I don’t love him as a backup on the cheap. We are probably cool with Tanner Mordecai as our third, but—if not—don’t be surprised if we take someone with multiple years as a college starter super late in the draft or pick someone up once the draft concludes.

Running Back: As expected after we gave him a second-round RFA tender, Jordan Mason was flipped to the Vikings for a 2026 6th-rounder and a 27-spot jump from the sixth to the fifth round come April. The Niners are now poised to draft a running back somewhere in the middle-to-late rounds of a loaded draft class. Ironically, given our penchant for drafting RBs too high, this is the rare class where drafting an RB in the third might actually make sense. I’m not saying I want us to do that, but there could be talented backs who slip.

Tight End: Luke Farrell was brought in from the Jags on a 3-yr deal worth $16M, with a contract structure that means he’ll never make more than a maximum of 1.28% of our cap space. Farrell is a very talented pass blocker, and the Niners must like his movement skills enough to believe he’ll be a strong run blocker as well. But the return of Juice muddies the picture a bit. At the moment, Farrell’s signing loses us a fifth-round comp pick next year. That cost could be defensible if we knew he was about to get major snaps as TE2 and FB. But with Juice back in the building and the team likely to draft a tight end in a deep and versatile class, will Farrell’s one-dimensional ability (he’s totaled 36 grabs over 66 games) be worth that draft capital? Or will be prove redundant/block valuable development time from a rookie? This is the deepest tight end class I’ve seen in years, we love heavy sets, and Kittle will turn 32 next year. I still expect us to draft a tight end. But if we’re talking about clearing out space for rookies to get major snaps, this is one of the few positions where that could be difficult.

Wide Receiver: Our other “big” add in free agency was Demarcus Robinson from the Rams. He’s a Chris Conley replacement with a higher ceiling. He’s got decent size and good vertical ability–even if he didn’t test well out of college–but has more versatility, upside, and production than Conley at this point in his career. The fit is strong, but questions remain around his DUI stoppage last year, how that reflects on his overall decision-making and locker room fit, and whether or not he’ll even be available (due to potential suspension) to start while Aiyuk heals up early in the year. With Aiyuk’s long-term standing in question, we’ll be in the market if an appropriate fit comes along. But it’s not a priority. 

Offensive Tackle: Trent and McKivitz return, but Trent missed a lot of games last year and doesn’t have much time left. While McKivitz improved but may be a more natural fit inside at guard. This is not an incredible tackle class, but we’ll certainly be doing our homework in the early rounds. We’ve already had confirmed interviews with four of the top five OT prospects in the class—with four of those legitimate options when we pick in the first round.

Offensive Guard: Puni has quickly become a mainstay, whether he sticks on the right or is moved to the left beside Trent. The second guard spot will probably be up for grabs in training camp, with Ben Bartch competing with any potential rookies and/or Spencer Burford–unless the team wants to keep him as a swing tackle/guard. With several tweener G/T’s in this draft, plugging in a rookie next to McKivitiz with the idea that they could eventually push outside is a possibility.

Center: Jake Brendel returns, and with free agency mostly in the rearview, the best chance we have to unseat him is probably Matt Hennessy–who we added from the Falcons’ practice squad late last year. Hennessy is a highly proven run blocker who started 20 games between 2021-22 at center, registering top 5 run blocking rates in both seasons. But he missed nearly two entire seasons due to injury and hasn’t played much since. He’s a scheme fit with legitimate upside and probably our best chance to unset Brendel. Drake Nugent also lingers in the background. With the new youth (by default) movement, perhaps a rookie starter is possible. But I’ll believe it when I see it.

Defensive End: Nick Bosa reigns supreme, but there are questions as to whether or not we have another starter on the roster. Sam Okuayinonu has potential but ran into the mid-to-late season wall we all kind of expected after his hot start last season. He should be better prepared for more snaps this year, but there’s a chance we just like him more as a member of the Bravo unit. Yetur Gross-Matos also returns. He showed some nice inside-out ability in his short run with us last year. He’s a guy with the athletic profile and flashes to be a starter (or super sub) but lacks consistency in a big way. We’ll be in the market to add (at least) another body in the draft, but getting an instant impact guy will be easier said than done.

Defensive Tackle: If defensive end features only one solidified starter, defensive tackle almost certainly has zero. Jordan Elliott could theoretically be paired with a rookie gap-shooter at the three-tech, but it’s not ideal. Givens is a good rotational piece, but not a starter. And the staff certainly wants Evan Anderson to push for a starter(ish) role, but that’s far from certain, and–even if he does force his way into more snaps–he’d likely be eating into Elliott’s playing time rather than pairing beside him as both are traditional nose tackles. Defensive tackle is the strongest and deepest position in this draft class. While the need for a one-gapper is much more dire, there are plenty of options for both types of bodies. If we don’t pick at least two defensive tackles this draft, with at least one coming in our top three picks, I’d be shocked.

Linebacker: Fred Warner will man the middle and should benefit greatly from the time off to heal the broken bone in his ankle that he played three months on last year. He was a different player in the first month of the season. Dee Winters will get the first crack at taking over Dre Greenlaw’s vacated spot. He’s got the will, the speed, and the coverage ability to excel there, but he’s been hit-or-miss against the run and has struggled to stay healthy. It’ll be a tall task to replace Greenlaw’s fire and emotional impact, but I expect us to try by taking a linebacker somewhere in the mid-to-late rounds. There are several speedy undersized types and converted safeties in this class who may fit our mold. How ready may they be to play right away? That remains to be seen.

Cornerback: With Ward gone, we need another starter on the outside. Or the inside, if we find a better fit and decide to move DeMo to the boundary. I don’t know if our solution is on the roster already, but I don’t expect this to be a premium need. Spending a high pick on the position doesn’t seem to be our preference, and we can likely get by with a late add veteran if need be. The one way this changes is if someone with genuinely elite traits falls. Will Johnson of Michigan is the name to watch here, but depending on how the draft shakes out, there could also be a value play at this position at the top of the second. Cornerback feels like a big wildcard position this year in that we have bigger needs but could get the best value by picking one earlier than we’d prefer.

Safety: I think we’re pretty set here. Mustapha is entrenched as our strong safety, while the Niners quietly added two veterans in Richie Grant and Jason Pinnock, who’ve started a combined 70 games across the past three years. They’ll compete with Ji’Ayir Brown to hold down the free safety spot. We’ve gotten great value from low-cost vets at this position in the past, and my guess is that’s the plan this time as well.

Kicker/Punter: My favorite text from a friend amid our free agent purge read “Interesting that Jake Moody hasn’t been dragged out into the parking lot and given the Old Yeller treatment.” We’ll add competition for Moody. Hopefully, that’s from a veteran leg or an undrafted rookie, or–if we have to–someone taken in the 6th or 7th round. Mitch’s job isn’t quite safe either. Regardless, we won’t get clarity until we get through the inevitable kicker competitions in training camp. Just please god no more specialists taken before the last rounds.

Go Niners 🏈👍