49ers 32, Jets 19
it's fun to run
Who’s to say whether this Jets team will become the cuspy second-tier contender promised a year ago on an HBO reality show or the depressing also-ran potato they’ve been for much of the past two decades? All we know at the moment is that this team has an excellent defense and was 7-10 last year with a cheesecloth offensive line and a freshman squad quarterback room. So while questions remain about their ceiling, this Jets squad should at least be a better version of last year’s. And after an off-season of long drawn-out contract negotiations, it was nice to see the Niners come out of the gates with a solid, throwback win.
OFFENSE
D = m/v. After Jordan Mason’s breakout first start, George Kittle referred to him (in the most endearing way) as “dense,” as if our young sledgehammer’s atoms are packed so tightly that there’s no room in them for shoestring tackles, running out of bounds, or any other tomfoolery such as defensive backs. Which…
Fair.
For Niners fans, Mason’s emergence wasn’t particularly surprising. Since he showed up as a UDFA two years ago, he’s rushed for 400+ yards on 5.6 ypc and was actually PFF’s highest rated RB over that time span–in part because his microscopic sample size was limited to doing exactly what he did on Monday: run through faces. But Mason has improved greatly this off-season–particularly in the passing game–and is now able to showcase that in greater snaps.
Who knows how long CMC is out. Achilles injuries have taken away two Bay Area championships in the very recent past, so–by all means–let him rest as much as needed. We’re in good hands until he returns.
Hype Train Activated. Only a traumatized man would crank out highlights of a rookie right guard after one week of play. I am that man.
Puni was regarded as smart, versatile, and strong in pass protection out of college. He’s been all of that, allowing just one hurry in 34 dropbacks on Monday. But his ability and strength in the run game were on full display in his NFL debut. It’s still early, but we might have a dude. And at a position where not having a dude has really REALLY hurt us deep in the playoffs.
Chips Ahoy. Our offense is at its best and most explosive when we’re running wild on the ground and generating chunk plays attacking the middle of the field. When it’s working, that mix of ground-n-pound and dumping passes over confused defenders’ heads is poetry in motion. But sometimes we get greedy trying to set up intermediate passes and catch-and-runs when all we need to do is move the chains.
Which is why—even though it wasn’t our sexiest or most explosive outing—it was nice to see a patient, methodical passing attack that largely targeted the outside alleys and wasn’t afraid to take easy, quick completions against soft coverage. To be fair, Purdy still dropped some dimes over second-level defenders, and we still hard-targeted players in coverage (the Jets’ two starting safeties combined to allow 5-of-5 completions for 106 yards), but Purdy’s spray chart shows how heavily we operated outside of the middle of the field.
We weren’t forcing YAC yard plays against a defense that was expecting them. We weren’t holding the ball too long to get that perfect long-developing strike over the linebackers and exposing ourselves to a potent pass rush. There will be some games where defenses play us conservatively and crowd the middle of the field in pass coverage. When that happens, a little patience–both from Shanahan and from Purdy–could be exactly what we need.
Double Duty Deebo. Slimmed down and rocking #1, Deebo’s impact far outweighed his modest stat line (8 carries for 23 yards and 1 TD, and 5 catches for 54 yards), especially because we weren’t putting him in many easy YAC situations. It would have been nice if he’d been able to create more separation and secure more of those tightly contested slant routes, but Deebo looks good, and the longer CMC is out, the more important his play will be–especially early in the season as Aiyuk gets his sea legs.
I also love Deebo returning kicks in the new kickoff format. Now teams must decide whether to boot the ball into the endzone and allow our offense to take over on the 30-yard line or attempt to pin us to the 20 by kicking it into the landing zone and risking a return from the world’s most dangerous man with the ball in his hands. I expect many teams will just spot us the ten yards.
Holdout Holdovers. Both of our long holdout guys had moments of rust. Trent Williams’ was seen mostly when he had to get pulled for an IV on a 4th-and-1 we otherwise may have gone for. Otherwise, he played great.
The same can’t be said for Aiyuk.
As much as I was NOT a fan of his prolonged contract negotiation, I AM a fan of Aiyuk, but once you start making $30M a year you need to be able to take over a game when your number is called. This matchup against the Jets and their elite outside corner duo was never going to be that game, but–when Aiyuk had a chance to step up–he looked rusty and fatigued–particularly in the string of plays around his drop in the endzone. Hopefully, he can get back into game shape quickly as we’re sure to need him at the peak of his powers as the season goes on.
DEFENSE
New Faces, Familiar Results. One week in, the new guys along the defensive line certainly look like savvy additions. Leonard Floyd recorded his first sack as a Niner and had a QB pressure that led to Flannigan-Fowles’ interception. He doesn’t seem like the fanciest or the flashiest edge rusher, but he’s a grinder on the edge who wins with relentlessness. Opposite Bosa, that consistency is what’s the most important.
On the interior, neither Maliek Collins or Jordan Elliott brought what a healthy Arik Armstead does as a two-way threat, but both were strong against the run and Elliott flashed a little pass rush potential in registering a QB hit. Collins had 5 sacks and 18 QB hits last season, so he’s the one we should be expecting to round into a pass rusher as he gets settled. Anything we can get in that regard from Elliott will just be icing on the cake.
As for new DC Nick Sorensen, this game was not the biggest test. But, the defense played sound (13 points allowed if we disregard deep garbage time) and he showed the ability to make adjustments when needed.
On this third down on their first scoring drive, the Jets have diagnosed that we’re in a Cover 4 trips adjustment where the near linebacker (Warner) high-walls and runs with the No.3 receiver if he goes vertical. So to exploit this they send that No.3 receiver on a clear-out and have the No.1 break into the vacated space underneath.
DeVondre Campbell gets stuck in no man’s land, and the Jets get an easy completion for a first down.
A few drives later, the Jets once again go to trips on third down, and—after motioning their tight end into a bunch formation and seeing how our DB (Renardo Green) follows him—Rodgers checks into a mesh concept meant to run off the defender on the No.3 receiver to free up space for the No.1 receiver underneath.
While this isn’t the same concept, it’s similar in how it’s trying to vacate space with the No.3 receiver to open up the No.1 underneath. But we’re not in man coverage or the quarters adjustment we were in earlier, we’re in a funky rotation of Cover 3.
So when Rodgers snaps the ball and looks to the trip side No.1 receiver, he notices he’s running into—rather than away from—a waiting defender. The same goes for the second shallow coming from the top of the frame.
By the time his third read maybe comes open, Rodgers is already halfway to the ground as our pass rush has gotten home.
This isn’t full-blown, hacking-the-mainframe, DeMeco Ryans telepathy-level stuff, but it’s nice to see our new DC diagnose what the Jets are doing and adjust quickly and effectively to take it away.
Campbell’s Coverage. But it wasn’t all roses for the Niners’ new faces on defense. DeVondre Campbell had an up-and-down debut and got picked on quite a bit in coverage, especially on the Jets’ one long touchdown drive. Campbell had some issues with positioning–sometimes dropping too shallow and other times too narrow–and the Jets dink-and-dunked him for 5 of 6 completions for 38 yards.
This will be something to monitor moving forward. We’ve been lucky with Warner and Greenlaw, but there’s no longer a Kwon Alexander or Azeez Al-Shaair to fill in while Greenlaw’s out rehabbing. Perhaps when Dee Winters returns from injury he could provide a spark, but most likely we’ll have to hope Campbell improves with more reps in our defense.
Money Moody. Yes, he had a 53-yarder luckily doink inside the left upright, but Moody was an otherwise automatic 6-of-6 on field goals, with three boots over 45 yards, continuing his strong play through the off-season. Rookie kickers are rarely that good, so here’s hoping that Moody has figured it out and is a mainstay for us for the next decade.
Next Up: Sunday (9/15) @ Minnesota Vikings , 10:00 AM PT
As you may have heard, the Niners play eight games against teams with a rest advantage. Their four games against teams coming off byes and their -32 gross rest days are both the worst since 1990, while their -21 net rest days are the worst in the league for the second year in a row. The first of those games is this Sunday.
Despite a boner-killing preseason injury to first-round quarterback JJ McCarthy, the 2024 debut of a rejuvenated Sam Darnold under QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell made for an impressively efficient week 1 showing and a 28-6 victory over a NY Giants team that will likely compete with the Panthers for this year’s award of shittiest piece of shit on the shit heap.
Aaron Jones is a massive upgrade over the “scrubs by committee” approach Minnesota employed last year at the running back position, and—even without the currently injured TJ Hockenson—this is a talented offense led by a great offensive mind. If DeVondre Campbell is gonna be a problem for us, we’re likely to find that out as soon as this Sunday. When the Vikings are on defense, expect a whole lot of blitzing and a mix of man coverage and two high zones behind it.
This isn’t the most talented roster, but it’s a cohesive and well-coached one. The pieces they have fit within the schemes they employ, and that–along with a short week and a morning kickoff after an east coast road trip–has the potential makings of a trap game if we don’t approach it properly.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Outward and Upward
making the best better
Last season’s offense was easily the best of the Shanahan era, leading the league (or close to it) in nearly every metric imaginable. But improvement always starts from looking inward, and–with our multiple holdouts finally back in the fold and the season quickly approaching–it’s worth examining our worst offensive performances in hopes of staying ahead of the curve.
According to PFF, our offense graded out under 65 (their mark for average or below) in only two games all season. According to Pro Football Reference, our offense provided negative expected points in only two games all season. You know which games: losses against the Browns and the Ravens. But I’m also going to include references to our performance in the Super Bowl because the Chiefs clearly used the Browns’ game plan as the foundation for what they did and there are some parallels between the game plans of all three defenses.
What Worked Against Us
Amoeba Fronts + Run Blitzes: In general, last season’s offense was hyper-efficient against the blitz. This follows logical sense in that most blitzers come from the short alley or middle regions of the field–two areas that we love to target in the passing game–and that fewer defenders in those areas allow both for easier completions and more yards to run after the catch. But the Browns and the Chiefs were blitz-heavy outliers. The Chiefs in particular took this strategy to the extreme, blitzing on 60% of their defensive snaps–the highest blitz rate the unit has deployed in four seasons under Spagnuolo.
To me, there were two big differences between how the Browns and Chiefs deployed their blitzes where most everyone else faltered. The first difference is that they were blitzes with a run-first mentality. Both the Browns and the Chiefs showed five- and six-man fronts with seven in the box–the same sort of shell we’ve seen deployed against outside zone teams ever since the Patriots ran it against the Rams in the 2018 Super Bowl.
Their goal was to create walls on the outside with rolled-down linebackers or extra linemen in wide techniques while letting their linebackers sprint to the ball with simple reads inside the box. This forces the offensive line into one-on-one matchups rather than double teams at the point of attack and keeps the linebackers clean from offensive linemen who would otherwise be climbing up to obstruct them on second-level blocks.
This isn’t a particularly new strategy, but it worked so effectively against us because (the Chiefs in particular) paired this basic scheme with a litany of different fronts and a ton of five- and six-man pressures behind it. Instead of risking their linebackers getting confused with motion, misdirection, and other offensive window dressing, they simply blitzed them up the B gaps, figuring they could undercut any runs before we could hit the edges and–if it wound up a pass–our guard play was poor enough (particularly after Jon Feliciano went down) that they could get home as pass rushers as well. This overarching logic of setting a wider edge than we could block and aggressively pursuing from the inside even extended to their nickel corners, who would often come down and reset the edge as blitzers as we motioned down into condensed formations.
Effectively, the Browns and the Chiefs made it mathematically difficult to run on early downs and they dared us to complete passes on first- and second-downs to set up more manageable third downs. Teams know that our dropback passing game is our schematic weakness and features much less of the motion and misdirection that opens up so much of our offense. But while the blitz-heavy approach makes numerical sense against the run, it still doesn’t work without the right coverages behind it.
Man Coverage: Where every other blitz-heavy team was scared of getting absolutely roasted off and ran a soft zone underneath, the Browns (52%) and the Chiefs (41%) were the only teams to run more than 26% man coverage against us all season. To be fair, they were probably the only two teams who had the personnel to feasibly attempt it. But what allowed them to do that (other than talent and coverage disguises) was how heavily they keyed the areas we liked to attack in the passing game.
Spot Dropping: With the Browns and the Chiefs, this meant keeping a hole defender on the second level who was specifically looking to jump the slant routes and quick-ins that are often best at beating blitzes and using a backside safety to rotate down into the middle of the field to take away digs and crossers.
Here, we’re trying to run a variation of a cross concept with Aiyuk (in blue) as our primary receiver and Jauan looking to clear him out and set a natural rub route with an outside release and out and up.
However, the Browns may be showing two-high but are in Cover 1 across the board with a high safety playing anything deep and the safety to the bottom of the screen looking to step down into the hole and jump any crossing routes.
Naturally, this doesn’t work well for us, and by the time Purdy has to move off Aiyuk and reset, there’s already pressure in his face.
These hole or rat defenders let the DBs in man coverage play aggressively and over the top, knowing that they had help on the YAC yard generators we so often love.
While the Ravens didn’t run nearly as much man coverage or blitz as often as the Chiefs and Browns, they were able to create a similar effect defensively by always making sure there was a new defender dropping into the hot zones we so often attack.
These sim blitzes and unexpected spot droppers helped force Purdy into the worst game of his career.
Masters of disguise: Spot-dropping and pressure is a great foundation to slowing down our offense, but it isn’t necessarily enough unless you can also mix up your looks. While the Chiefs’ defense had more coverage disguises and variety than I think I’ve ever seen in a defensive game plan, the Ravens defense as a whole is fundamentally built off of the idea of showing weird fronts and sim blitzes and dropping back into as many complex coverages behind it as physically possible. This creates confusion for the skill players but also for the linemen, who often get put into disadvantageous one-on-one looks due to misreading pressure–effectively creating the same advantage as a blitz would while still having numbers in coverage.
These weird fronts and back-end coverages were a notable issue for our OL and for Purdy, who (understandably) struggled to decipher the Ravens’ and Chiefs’ pre-snap looks–particularly when under quick pressure–whether the blitzes were simulated or not. It’s probably worth noting here that you can still get to the right receiver even if you have the wrong pre-snap read, but not when you’re moved off your spot before you can get there.
While our offense as a whole may have had only two games all year (out of twenty) that were graded by PFF as below 65, or “average or below,” our offensive line only had five games all year that were graded ABOVE 65. Our pass pro can be problematic in a vacuum, so it certainly isn’t helped by increasingly complicated fronts.
Countering the Counterpunches
I’m about to talk a lot about pass game stuff, but it’s important to note one caveat in all three of the games being referenced here. Yes, the defenses loaded up against the run. Yes, they made it harder to run with numbers and aggressiveness forced us to pass more in more situations where we’d rather not. But… we still ran the ball successfully against all of these teams. These are our rushing totals—excluding QB scrambles—in those three games:
Browns: 20 carries for 104 yards and 1 TD @ 5.2 ypc
Ravens: 16 carries for 110 yards and 1 TD @ 6.9 ypc
Chiefs: 28 carries for 98 yards and 0 TD @ 3.5 ypc
And in the Browns game, CMC, Trent Williams, and Deebo Samuel all went down due to injury. So we should not abandon the run. In fact, against some of these teams (the Ravens in particular), running the ball should be the first part of every game plan. But when teams go so far out of their way to key our run game and our middle-of-the-field passes, we need to be strong enough in our dropback game to make them play honest.
Get better along the OL: Loading the line of scrimmage and committing numbers and blitzers to the box is a sound strategy to force one-on-one blocks in the running game… unless the offensive line wins those one-on-one blocks. Then you’re just getting gashed. While our OL is largely the same unit that finished out last year and we (le sigh) still don’t have a young tackle to develop, there is some hope for improvement in the trenches.
I’m not going to pretend like Colton McKivitz is a future star at right tackle, but–other than an atrocious Ravens game–his best play was towards the end of last season. The ceiling’s not high but he may be just a tick better in his second year as a starter. We can still (I guess) hope for Aaron Banks to take another step in his development, but–after seemingly plateauing last season and missing all of training camp–I’m not sure how likely that is. But the biggest ray of hope lies in Dominick Puni–our third-round rookie and new starter at right guard.
In a draft where it seemed like we kept trying to trade down and couldn’t or wanted to trade up but missed our window, Puni was one of two offensive linemen outside of the first two rounds who I was excited about as a potential year one starter, and–through deft draft maneuvering–we were able to secure him in the third round after nine other linemen (who I largely thought were lesser prospects) went off the board.
After injuries to Jon Feliciano and Spencer Burford opened the door for him, Puni quickly locked down the first-team right guard spot, impressing coaches and veterans with his intelligence, maturity, and quickness, as he looks slated to start week 1 in a massive test against the Jets’ stacked defensive line. Every spot along our offensive line (other than Trent Williams) could be upgraded, but with the massively inflating salaries of offensive guards this season (four guards now make upwards of $20M/yr) the best way to do that is through the draft. If we found a keeper in Puni, we may be able to rest easy at the right guard position for the first time in the ShanaLynch era.
Take the Party Outside: Our offense thrives in condensed splits because they allow us to get across the field quicker, sell play action, and dig out defenders in the run game. None of that–nor our focus on the run game–should change. But we need to find ways to attack quickly outside when a team is too heavily keying motions and trying to reset the edge with blitzing nickelbacks. When teams go that far out of their way to stop our core offense, they’re opening up other things, and–in this case–that’s quick outside passes.
Some of this may be as simple as diversifying and evolving our dropback passing game, an idea that seems possible after some advancements last year and the first off-season in a decade(?) where we have a starting quarterback who we’re optimistic about. Other signs of an evolved dropback game include us rostering 7(!) wideouts in our initial 53–even if part of that was likely due to the Aiyuk contract situation at the time–and a run-pass ratio that skewed more towards balance by the end of last year.
But I think there are other ways where we can still incorporate motion and condensed splits into our dropback game and punish teams for over-keying our tendencies. I already mentioned one example in the Super Bowl preview:
Tic Tac Toe. One of the tenets of the Chiefs’ defense is that they almost always have a check or two prepared for different types of motion. The thinking goes that–if the offense is going to get more information and an advantage from motion–the defense can reclaim that advantage by adjusting from the motion just before the snap. That could mean players rolling up as edges (which we saw above), rotating safeties, receivers being handed off, d-line stunts, blitzes, and everything in between. Defensive checks are great, but if the offense deciphers what checks you’re making in what situations–either during film study or the game itself–the offense can spring people open in a hurry.
Here the Chiefs are in man and have Trent McDuffie running across formation with orbit motion. In order to keep a good angle on his man he has to really book it, so–knowing this–the Bills have called a play specifically to get the motion man loose the other way.
It will be up to Shanahan, our coaching staff, and our offensive line, to get a grasp on what checks are most likely to happen against what looks and attack them both in the passing game and the running game.
But there are various other ways to punish defenses for overpursuing backside of motion. Here’s an example of Georgia deploying a play action pass off of return motion to spring open a wheel route down the field in this season’s opener:
Even if the potential blitzing nickel peels off into coverage when they read a route release, their eyes can get caught up in the underneath route, and they’re still out leveraged by the slot receiver going over top.
And while the shallow crossers of a pass concept like mesh would seem to play right into the rat defenders and rotating safeties trying to take away slants and crossers, there are ways to use their leverage and expectations against them to get CMC out to the edge with a natural pick:
Whether it’s by playing more spread out and empty sets, mixing and matching our personnel to create mismatches on the perimeter, evolving our dropback game, or implementing more pass game counters away from motion, we need more options to attack the outside when teams commit so heavily to crowding the box.
Win on the Boundary: The Chiefs ran a ton of different bracket disguises, which–in conjunction with the pressure–made it harder for us to target our outside wideouts down the field. Ultimately, if pressure is coming early, you just can’t throw the ball down the field. But when the pass rush is picked up, there are ways to create isolation looks outside when you know a team is running man and clogging the box. We saw as much in a mid-season dismantling of the Eagles…
Win outside. Clouding the middle of the field to try and take away slants and digs isn’t something new or particularly innovative. Teams have been trying to do that to us for years. The big difference is we now have more answers and—on most days—a QB who can exploit defenses who play our tendencies too heavily.
The Eagles tried their best to take away inside-breaking routes when we played them earlier this year, and our response was to utilize trips and quads formations to isolate a receiver backside—usually Aiyuk—and force the defense to either give that backside player help or have a numbers advantage to the multiple receiver side.
With the inside players keying inside-breaking routes, they inevitably weren’t getting much width, but to make sure that linebacker at the top of the screen would clear out, CMC ran a spot route to the middle of the field and directly into his line of sight. That let Purdy and Aiyuk just chip away relentlessly on one-on-one coverage with no underneath help by throwing quick and intermediate passes outside the hashes.
And even in that disastrous Ravens game.
Even though it seemed like nothing was going right on Sunday, we actually had success doing something somewhat similar against the Ravens—albeit with concepts that created a high-low look to the backside rather than a pure isolation.
Since the Ravens are more likely to drop into something like Cover 2, we used a player coming across formation (or later, a running back) to keep the flat defender shallow, out of the way, and distracted, then basically let Aiyuk cook someone deeper down the field for an easy completion.
After the snap, you can see that the linebackers are looking to take away inside routes and haven’t widened at all. While the true flat defenders must play up to take away the motion man who has immediately threatened their zone (especially when that player is Deebo). The end result is a single corner with deep responsibility covering Aiyuk, and… as we should all know by now…
Aiyuk is always open.
My apologies. There is nothing lazier and more self-serving than using my rambling writing to quote my own rambling writing of months past, but this is just to show that these are all things we’ve shown we can do. We just need to continue to expand this facet of our playbook.
This is where Brandon Aiyuk needs to earn his money. After the longest, weirdest, and undoubtedly most annoying contract negotiation, he can earn his payday by absolutely EATING against man coverage and on clear isolation plays. Because our offensive scheme is good enough to get a lot of people these looks, but BA is the dude we’re relying on to routinely win those looks.
Read the Wave. I fully believe that sim blitzes are the next wave to take over NFL defenses, and–unfortunately–the closest thing to a godfather of that scheme is now the head coach of the Seahawks. This is annoying because we basically ate for free against the stagnant Seahawks defenses of late, but it does give Purdy a lot of practice against a defensive look that he struggled against and that he’s bound to see a lot of going forward.
This isn’t a knock on Purdy, nor a statement on whether or not he can figure it out. You can count the number of quarterbacks who quickly picked up disguised blitzes and complex backend coverages as a first-year starter on zero hands because it’s just something you have to see to understand. Now, he’s seen it. He’s seen multiple versions of it. Hopefully, last year was a learning experience for him and he’ll be more prepared and precise when facing these looks in the future.
The same goes for the offensive line. Even if Purdy can read and diagnose who’s open, it won’t matter much if the OL is letting defensive linemen and blitzers run free into the backfield.
Ultimately, these are small changes, not big ones. Little wrinkles to the playbook to punish those who don’t play us straight. There’s every reason to believe that our offense should once again be one of the league’s best and thus no reason to think of any real wholesale changes. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t continue to evolve as defenses adapt to combat what we do best.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Final Draft Thoughts
i’ll have another of these plz
Draft time is almost upon us. When teams are forged and contenders are built. When the filthy casuals are separated from the absolute loser football nerds. When every Eagles and Patriots mock draft gets stuffed with as many white players as is possible to defend in the year 2024.
Let’s start with John Lynch’s pre-draft press conference, which was more informative than I expected.
170. Several draft experts have talked about how this draft class falls off around the 150 mark. For the Niners, that number sits at 170. Lynch stated that the scouting department has 170 players in this class with draftable grades, a number that is lower than usual in part because of NIL.
Before the college season begins, the Niners evaluate players who they think have a 50% chance or greater of turning pro next year. This year, 83 of those players (35 of whom the Niners considered “starter grade”) decided to return to college. That doesn’t mean that at pick 171 we just call it quits and start throwing darts. Our 170 won’t line up with anyone else’s 170 (or whatever their number of draftables is), and if we have to spend a late-round pick on a guy we’d rather take as a priority free agent, then so be it, but the low number of draftable grades will likely lead to a lot of teams trying to leverage sixth and seventh-round picks into trade packages to move up higher in the draft.
22. Of the 170 draftable players, the Niners have first-round grades on 22 of them, which is less than ideal but is a higher number than we’ve had the past few years. While that number might imply that the Niners are primed to move up in the first round to secure a guy with a first-round grade, I think it’s more likely that we move down to accumulate an additional day 2 pick.
On the block. I still contend that if we move up it should only be for a truly elite prospect and/or one of the Top 6 tackles (Mims or better). But let’s talk about what a trade down could look like. The bottom of the first is always potential trade territory because teams like to lock in the fifth-year option that only comes with first-round picks. And due to the high cost of quarterbacks and how fifth-year option rates are one of the initial starting points for negotiating contract extensions, the bottom of the first is particularly appealing for teams looking for a new QB.
Is there risk involved in trading down? Absolutely. You could drop down so low that you miss out on the next tier of prospects and—if you really play it wrong—a run on a position of need could leave you out in the lurch entirely. But the upside is gaining an additional top 100 pick, and in this class, we should be able to find as many legitimate contributors as we have picks in the top 100.
As a purely theoretical exercise, pick 31 is valued the same as picks 40 and 100 combined, two picks that Washington currently has (the last one coming from us in the Chase Young trade). If a run on tackles means we’ve missed on the Top 7 guys and are staring down the likes of Jordan Morgan, Kingsley Sumataia, etc. but don’t love any of them, we could trade down, snag any of those tackles if they were to fall to 40, or take best player available at 40 and pull the trigger on someone like Blake Fisher or Roger Rosengarten when we pick again at the bottom of the round.
Of course, this is all speculative. And if one of the 22 guys we like on day one falls to No. 31, the most sensible move is to just draft him, regardless of position. But at this point, I’d consider a trade down equally (if not more) likely than a trade up.
Needs vs. Wants. While Lynch noted that the team doesn’t have a lot of “needs” for this upcoming year, he also mentioned that there are probably more starting positions up for grabs than people on the outside may expect. To me, that means the Niners will be drafting value over need (aka they won’t reach on a right tackle they don’t love in the first) and that–in addition to right tackle–immediate competition to improve cuspy positions like corner, center, and guard is on the table.
Reading the Tea Leaves. While the Niners don’t always meet with the players who they draft, a pre-draft visit to Santa Clara is the strongest possible indicator of our interest. In both of the past two drafts, we’ve hosted five of the nine players we’ve picked (plus a lengthy on-campus workout with Jake Moody). In 2019, we hosted four of our top five picks and had a substantial workout with the fifth (Mitch Wishnowsky). But–of the 20 players who’ve had confirmed pre-draft visits to Santa Clara–none of them are consensus first-round talents.
Since teams are allowed 30 pre-draft visitors, it’s safe to say some chunk of those 10 missing names (maybe all 10 of them) are first-round targets, and that the team has simply done a good job of keeping it under wraps.
But even when these visits don’t tell us exactly who we may be picking, the players we host, visit with at the combine and Senior Bowl, and/or hold private workouts with tell us a lot about the different positions we’re targeting at different points in the draft.
So what do these visits tell us?
Offensive Line and Defensive Line will be prioritized on the first two days. We’ve hosted two offensive linemen who could be first or second-day picks and met with six others at the Senior Bowl and combine. We’ve hosted four defensive linemen who could be first or second-day picks and met with four others at the Senior Bowl and combine.
We like the depth at wideout on the second day–having met with seven wideouts with second- or third-round grades–but are plenty interested in guys on the third day as well.
Tight end, linebacker, and safety all seem like highly likely picks–even if they’re most likely to happen on the third day.
The Aiyuk Of It All. Thursday should also give us the merciful end to Aiyuk trade rumors, one way or another. Despite repeated claims that the Niners don’t want to move him and Aiyuk’s own agent speaking out against trade speculation, Aiyuk’s cryptic social media presence and a horde of beat reporters’ cited sources continue to stoke the flames of a potential trade.
My stance on Aiyuk hasn’t changed. In the short term, it’s nearly impossible to envision us being a better team a year from now without him on the squad, and we all know that big changes are coming after next season one way or another. Moving Aiyuk creates a gigantic hole on our roster, we immediately become one of the worst receiving corps in the country, and all of our man-beating ability becomes sequestered in the slot—with much of it coming from our running back. That’s not sustainable and will give us a massive matchup disadvantage against some of the teams we may have to battle with to contend for another Super Bowl (Ravens, Chiefs, etc.).
In the long term, it makes just as little sense. Yes, it saves us money, but you need a number one receiver in today’s NFL unless you have a scramble-y big-armed high-level quarterback who can regularly extend plays. The Chiefs’ offense wouldn’t have worked without Mahomes’ ability to do just that. And when they weren’t blatantly holding every other play, that offense didn’t work. The Bills still had Stefon Diggs—even if he wasn’t performing at a high level—when they went on their late-season push, and Josh Allen is their run game and their pass game put into one. The Packers may have not had a No.1, but Jordan Love thrives off buying time and launching rockets over defenders and the Packers have one of the deeper corps of receiving weapons in the NFL. Sure, four No.2’s can often make up for a lack of a No.1. But without Aiyuk, we have neither.
Reports state that the Niners are looking for at least a first-round pick (reasonable) and that they don’t want to pay Aiyuk upwards of $25M/year (unreasonable). While “upwards” is the keyword here, we should be perfectly fine with paying him something in the ballpark of $25M/year as that is fair value. Deebo makes just under $24M/year and that contract was signed two years ago coming off the pandemic. The salary cap has spiked by $47M(!) in the two years since. I agree that we don’t want to pay two wideouts big money long-term, but the wideout we do want to pay that money is Aiyuk, not Deebo. And while it’s more complicated than signing one and moving off the other, that’s why salaries are back-loaded so those moves can be dovetailed over multiple years.
This is also a bad year to trade a wide receiver because the draft class is so stacked at the position that it depreciates receiver trade value. The L’Jarius Sneed trade for a future third isn’t a good comp because the Chiefs very obviously didn’t have the money to pay him and thus had to move him, which dominated their leverage. Neither is the Keenan Allen trade, as Allen is five years and countless injuries older, is worse than Aiyuk, and the Chargers were in too shitty of a cap situation to retain any leverage. But those trades still happened and that still affects Aiyuk’s value on the open market.
My prediction? He stays and we ultimately hammer out an extension earlier than we’ve sealed recent deals with Bosa and Deebo. But that doesn’t mean we won’t be sweating it out come Thursday.
One Last Chance To Look Stupid
After breezing through some potential prospect profiles, getting a general sense of the draft landscape, and trying to read as much as possible into Lynch’s pressers and confirmed and rumored pre-draft meetings, here’s a complete theoretical of how the draft could unfold. I’m not going to mock out the exact picks I would expect because I don’t think that’s particularly useful or predictive given the many variables at play. This is more like a look into how the Niners may come to their decisions this weekend, and—since I’m writing it down—what actually happens is sure to deviate wildly from what I’m about to say.
Day 1
We’re entering this draft with 22 guys with first-round grades and we’d be more than happy to take any of them at pick 31. Due to the shape of the class, we also know that there’s a high likelihood that if any of those 22 falls to us, they play a position of need. But the “if” of whether or not they fall is the big question.
We’ll have our 22 guys broken up into tiers and before the draft starts, we should be 99% certain how high we’re willing to move up (or more accurately, how much we’re willing to give up) in a potential trade-up to obtain any one of them. I have no idea what that line is, but we’ll have one.
As the day progresses, we’ll be tracking our 22 with a specific interest in runs on offensive tackle–our biggest position of need–and eyes on teams picking 5-10 spots before us. The closer it gets to our draft slot, the easier it will be to project other teams’ picks and guess who may be available once we’re on the clock. While we’re tracking players we’re interested in, we should also be tracking the movement of quarterbacks and rooting for as many as possible to go in the first round before we pick. It’s almost certain that at least four will go before we’re on the board, with the highest possible number probably six. If any of those six are still available as our number starts to creep up, we should keep that in mind for potential trade purposes. Due to the fifth-year option that only comes with first-round picks, teams are more than happy to trade into the bottom of the first round for any position, but–due to how expensive QB contracts are and how the fifth-year option price is often the starting point for contract negotiations down the road–this is doubly true for quarterbacks.
If we’re creeping into the twenties, it starts to look like our 22 are going to be off the board, and we don’t like the value (or find the opportunity) for a trade up to secure a talent we’ve graded as a first-rounder, we start hitting the phones to gauge interest in trading down. I don’t know for sure but this seems like a draft where there are a good number of guys with second-round grades. So while looking for trade partners I think about how fat those second-round tiers are. The fatter the top tier is, the harder you want to trade down and the further you’re willing to go back into the second because a fatter tier means a higher likelihood that you can get the same level of player with a trade down that you would have otherwise picked at 31.
At this point, I would say the odds are about even that–if we keep our pick at 31–we wind up with an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman. I would guess that our preference looks something like this:
Top 7 OT (give or take a tackle, as we grade differently)
Jer’Zhan Newton, Chop Robinson, one or both of the interior OL, maybe Darius Robinson, and maaaaaybe Marshawn Kneeland
A cornerback
Ultimately, I don’t expect one of the top 7 tackles to fall to number 31. So unless our tackle cutoff goes to 8 (which it might) and/or our OT hierarchy is different from the consensus (which Lynch hinted could be the case), an interior lineman or a defensive lineman seems more likely to be there at 31. If those DL/interior OL options are also off the board, it is almost mathematically impossible that at least one of the three corners in this range (DeJean, Kool-Aid, Wiggins) is NOT available. And the only way that happens is if someone we thought we had no realistic chance of getting has plummeted to us. In which case, we should take that person.
I don’t know where the Niners’ first-round cutoff is and where “trade down” hops all other prospects on their priority list, but the idea is quite enticing. The greatest internal factor in determining whether or not it happens could come down to how we rank and tier our tackle prospects. If we think the difference between Jordan Morgan/Kingsley Suamataia and Blake Fisher/Roger Rosengarten is minimal, why not trade down, get another pick in the top 100, and still secure a tackle we may have taken at 31?
If we can’t manage a trade down, then we pick the highest-graded dude available at the highest tier available at 31, with a lean towards positional need. Yes, that result inherently leaves some value on the floor, and squeezing value out of every selection is the name of the game, but it takes two to tango.
Day 2
By splitting up the draft into three days instead of two, the NFL has created a feeding frenzy of trades at the top of the second round, as GMs, coaches, and owners (lol) now have an entire night and morning to look at who’s still available and convince themselves that they have to move up to secure “their guy.”
Just last year, two of the first three picks of the second round were traded. The year before, three of the top six picks were moved. As a potential buyer, this likely doesn’t concern us. But if we do end up trading down a few spots and out of the first round, it’s worth noting that (a) it’s harder than ever to predict who will be going at the top of the second because it’s harder than ever to know what teams will be making those picks, and (b) there’s typically demand for teams looking to trade up if we want to move down a SECOND time.
So how we approach this day will vary depending on what we did on day 1.
If we drafted an offensive tackle… We’re sitting pretty, as we’ve addressed our biggest position of need and now can let the draft come to us as we step into a two-round period flush with DL, WR, and CBs. I continue to think we’d be missing out on a golden opportunity by not drafting one of the defensive tackles in this draft, but is that someone like Fiske or Ruke in the second or someone more like Hall, Smith, or Dorlus in the third? Luckily the receiver class is just as flexible, with plenty of second or third-round targets, so there are various ways we can mix and match over the next two rounds.
Cornerback is an intriguing position because some guys fit our scheme well and others we probably see as slots only. I’m sure there are a few guys in this range (and later) who we see as smaller feisty players who have the makeup and skill set to play outside despite their size, but I have no idea how many of those slot-type bodies we truly think can make that DJ Reed/DeMo Lenoir kind of transition. While the safety class is not particularly strong, they could be worth mentioning in the same breath as the corners because most of the safeties of interest will be off the board on this day, and—if we’re looking at safeties and nickels—it could behoove us to hedge our bets and get a guy who can play both. I’m not sure how many of these guys have that kind of versatility, but we’ve shown the ability to play several different body types in the slot—including former safeties (Logan Ryan, Jimmie Ward)—and someone who can play would help justify spending a second day pick on a defensive back who isn’t an outside corner.
There are some interesting linebacker prospects with speed around this area as well, and that’s a bit of a sleeper position on Day 2, even if it’s more of a luxury pick that could wait until later. Finally, don’t rule out interior OL here or at the top of the third day. McKivitz had a tough year and plays a more premium position, but it was our interior that had a tougher Super Bowl. Banks is only signed for one more year, Feliciano likely hangs it up after this season, Burford didn’t take the step forward that we wanted last year, and there are a lot of guys with high floors and plug-and-play vibes lurking inside on this day.
If we drafted a defensive lineman… The second round seems earmarked for an offensive lineman. Hard to imagine someone like Kingsley or Patrick Paul would be around at the bottom of the second but Blake Fisher or Roger Rosengarten? While some may consider either a slight reach in the second, the value seems right here and they’re both high-ceiling guys who fit our scheme like a glove. There’s also a world where we don’t get a tackle on this day and instead get a guard, although in a world like that someone like Dominick Puni–with some inside/outside potential–becomes a bit more valuable. Or perhaps we really push it and wait until the late third to take a guy like Caedan Wallace. I wouldn’t suggest that method, as it would be playing with fire and more of a reach than Fisher or Rosengarten in the second, but as the draft gets deeper, beggars can’t be choosers.
As far as wideouts, corners, et al., nothing here changes from if we’d drafted an offensive tackle in the first.
If we drafted interior OL… while a massive rebuild of our OL ala the Chiefs a few years ago is certainly possible given the talent of this class and our need to improve in pass protection, it’s probably not all that likely unless the chips just fall in our favor.
If we get an OT in the second or the third after drafting a C/G type in the first it's cause someone fell to us. Like Fisher or Rosengarten at the bottom of the third. Or maybe Puni in the third for versatility if our first-rounder is slotted for center. At that point, sure. It’s value and it’s need. You can’t complain much about that. And we’ll have still gotten a good player at another position in the second.
Otherwise, we’re still on that WR/CB train looking for best available.
If we drafted a cornerback… While I’ve come around a bit to the idea of taking a cornerback in the first round, one of the many reasons I don’t prefer it is that it really forces out hand on day 2. In this situation, we still have a desperate need at OL and are all but guaranteed to miss out on tapping into the day two depth of two of the following position groups (OL, DL, WR).
That’s far from ideal, and in this scenario, it feels like WR is the most likely position to get kicked to the third day–where there should still be a handful of slot receivers and developmental guys but no one who projects as a true No.2 down the road.
If we traded down… While it’s possible we could have traded down for future assets, let’s assume the compensation for a trade down included a second-rounder and an additional pick on this day, giving us four picks in the next two rounds. That would give us a neatly packaged four picks to address OL, DL, CB, and WR–hitting each of the deep positions of this draft and addressing needs with all of them. Granted, it’s not that simple, and I could see a LB or S sneaking in there somewhere. But if we were never getting a guy who we had a first-round grade on anyway, this is the best way to fill a lot of holes before the third day even starts.
Note: Third-round maneuvering seems likely regardless of what we did in the first round. If we have a good number of players with second-round (or cuspy third-round) grades, we’ll likely be aggressive in securing one of those dudes before we get a tier drop-off into the next round. We have the most picks of anyone in this draft but seven are on the third day, so this is likely where we start using them as trade fodder. For reference, our lowest fourth-rounder could move us up around 8 spots. Our fifth-rounder could move us up 5.
Day 3
Before the final day begins, it’s worth looking at our roster and the guys we’ve already picked so we can zero in on which positions could still use reinforcements and which are likely limited to guys we can stash on the practice squad due to roster size restrictions.
Every position is different and some can use more bodies than others. For instance, even if we extend Aiyuk and Jennings signs his tender, we’ll only have three locked-in wideouts for a position group where we usually roster five-to-six. Despite having Ronnie Bell and Danny Gray in the fold, we could easily add two receivers this draft. Similarly, at linebacker, we have Warner, Campbell, and Flannigan-Fowles but Greenlaw will start on the PUP list. And while Ezekiel Turner will likely be kept around for his special teams value, I wouldn’t be surprised if we want to throw a bunch of bodies at the position and see who emerges from the fray–whether it’s a rookie from this class or one of the two drafted last year.
Elsewhere it gets more complicated. Since this isn’t the year 1950, we only roster one fullback. Any fullback-type needs to be able to fit on the practice squad or also play tight end. A quarterback? On the practice squad at best. Even a third-day cornerback–despite playing a position of need–would have a tough time making the active roster with three returning starters, Yiadom, Luter, Womack, and Rock Ya-Sin already fighting over a likely five total roster spots.
This is where the math gets particularly difficult for talented teams who have fewer available roster spots. We may like a developmental player in the fourth, but if we aren’t confident he’ll make our active roster, we need to know we can stash him on the practice squad, and—until the sixth and seventh rounds come around—that’s often quite a gamble.
The workaround for this—which we saw with Cameron Latu last year—is to place a rookie on IR before the season begins. In that case, he doesn’t count against the active roster and is protected from opposing teams. But players placed on IR before the season cannot return at any point in that season, meaning this player—who needs development—won’t be seeing any of that development on the field. While they still benefit from being in a professional training program, attending all the meetings, and watching practice, development off the field can only go so far.
Given all that, here are the number of guys we could take at any given position and which positions seem the most likely to get picked on Day 3.
Quarterback (0-1): If we pick one, he’ll come off the board in the last two rounds
Running Back (1): we typically roster four running backs and a fullback, meaning an RB taken on the third day has a decent shot to make the team. That points to either a pass-catching specialist who might be able to get some third-down snaps (Dylan or Dillon) or an outsize zone scheme fit with the potential to take on lead backup duties a year from now (Guerendo).
Fullback/tight end (1-2): if he’s a tight end proper, he’s got a great shot to make the team, as we typically roster four, and only one (Kittle) is a sure thing. If he’s a fullback… well, hopefully, he can play tight end too.
Wide receiver (2-3): three wideouts sounds absurd, but that’s a testament to our lack of depth and the depth of this receiver class (also, the third would be a practice squad guy). One on day two and one on day three would be my guess, with the day three guy expected to make an immediate contribution on special teams. Cowin, McCaffrey, or Means seem the most likely on day three, but there are plenty of viable options here.
Offensive Line (2-3): at least one guy who can compete for immediate starter reps and another developmental body.
Defensive Line (1-3): we roster 9-10 defensive linemen at any time, so we can always take bodies here. In basically any year, we’re expecting to add at least two defensive linemen in the draft. This year, maybe we add a third. I’d expect a DT with down-the-road starter potential and either a developmental DE or a guy who we know is a subpackage rusher for life (cause we need that too).
Linebacker (1-2): As mentioned above, this is a position group where we have a type and we have no issue throwing bodies at the position and seeing who sticks. The Oregon kid seems intriguing as a late-draft flier.
Cornerback (1-2): Unlike linebacker, we don’t have a lot of roster spots to play with here, but if we don’t snag someone in the first two days, we may take a similar approach to the position—which would make for one of the better position battles of training camp.
Safety (0-1): Despite the need, we can always sign a veteran replacement if Gipson opts not to return, and the safety class as a whole isn’t particularly strong. If we draft a safety, hopefully, it’s Sione Vaki.
Specialists (goddamn better be zero, sheeeeit)
Given the lack of back-end depth in this draft class, anyone we pick up in the sixth and seventh rounds should be treated more like a priority free agent, meaning their position doesn’t matter nearly as much as early-round guys.
So What Would We Be Happy With?
Behold, the draft happiness index, an arbitrary point system for an arbitrary emotional response to a rookie draft which we can’t have a genuine informed opinion of until years down the road. Also known as “the vibe check,” “draft grades for Montessori students,” or “phoning it in because I don’t know how to end this write-up.”
Scoring works as follows:
+10: we have a new starting offensive tackle and we think he might be awesome
+5: we have a new starting guard/center and we think he might be awesome
+5: we have a new starting offensive tackle and we don’t think he sucks
+5: we draft one of the 22 players we graded as a first-round talent
+5: we successfully trade down for additional picks without giving up value
+2: we add a defensive lineman to our immediate two-deep
+2: we add a receiver to our immediate two-deep
+2: we add a corner to our immediate two-deep
+1: Roger Goodell says something lizard-like during the draft proceedings
+1: a guest picker gets hyped and goes way over their time
-1: a second guest picker gets hyped and goes way over their time
-1: an old man is tasked with announcing the selection of Ruke Orhorhoro, a name he will inevitably butcher. The older he is, the more likely he is to follow that up with a flippant comment about how he butchered the name.
-5: we pick someone in the first who we could have gotten in the second
-5: we don’t draft a wide receiver or defensive lineman until the third day
-10: we don’t draft an offensive lineman until the third day
-10: we draft a running back in the first two days of the draft
-15: we draft a specialist
-20: we trade Brandon Aiyuk
Once you tally up the score, your suggested emotional response can be found below:
Scores above 20 = LFG!!!
Scores above 10 = let’s go!
Scores below 0 = shit
Scores below -10 = fuck
Scores below -20 = your daughter has brought home her boyfriend, and it’s Bill Vinovich. She claims that the age difference doesn’t bother her so it shouldn’t bother you. They are moving into a studio apartment in Starksville, Mississippi without air conditioning because they “like the culture” there. She is pregnant with octuplets and Bill has convinced her to star in a reality show that will document their rearing. The show is titled: “Good Father, Better Ref.” It runs for twelve seasons.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Day 3 Watchlist
/fullback
While it may take place during Saturday morning cartoons (are these still a thing?), the third day of the draft is critically important—especially for us. Of the 24ish players we could consider starters, exactly half of them were found on the third day of the draft or later. We’ve drafted this day as well as any team in the NFL, which is a big reason why we’ve been able to offset the many misses we’ve had in the first three rounds. As a perfect example of this, after signing Trent Taylor last week, all eleven of our fifth-round picks since Shanahan and Lynch took over seven years ago are currently on contract in the NFL. Five of them start for us. That’s an absurd stat.
I think one of the reasons why we’ve done so well in unearthing late-round and undrafted talents is that once the third day rolls around, we have historically swung more on players whose traits may be in question but whose character is not. Hufanga was too slow to play safety. Lenoir was too small to play corner. Greenlaw was a bit undersized and ran a slow forty (lol). Kittle, uh… yeah, not sure what happened there. But the fact remains that these guys have vastly overperformed their draft position because they were scheme fits and because high-character dudes are much more likely to put in the work to vault above their selection. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t take any swings on guys with tantalizing traits (there are many listed below). The dream is always to get guys like Greenlaw and Kittle who have sky-high potential and character. But the latter seems to power our late-round decision-making more than the former.
Continuing to find legitimate contributors out of the last four rounds will play a big part in our ability to sustain our success. That said, the depth of this draft is clustered in its top 100-150 and some believe there is a steep drop-off after that. Add in the fact that we have ten total picks for 5ish (max) roster spots and we should be expecting to wheel and deal a lot of these late-round picks to maneuver positioning and (ideally) add picks for next year.
I’ve clustered players by the best-guess round that they’ll be selected below. This is always an inexact science on day 3, but probably more so in a year when there’s said to be a steep talent drop-off before the last rounds. Don’t be surprised if someone listed in the sixth round winds up going in the fourth. That could mean it’s a reach, but—in this class more so than others—it may simply point to a lack of late-round depth and variance in scouting opinions.
4TH ROUND
When your nickname is Bort, you are required to have a mullet
While the three-day draft split has drawn an imaginary line between the third and fourth rounds, I still believe you should be able to consistently find contributors in the fourth. While it seems unlikely that we’ll keep all of them, we have three picks within a 12-pick span at the end of this round (124, 132, 135). The names below aren’t typically listed in any particular order, but I am going to lead off with players who may be able to start as rookies.
Offensive line mentions will continue until morale improves. Even if we snag a guy in the first two days we are almost certain to take either (A) a developmental player later in the draft or (B) another dude (likely on the interior) who can at least push for starting time now. As a four-year starter at right tackle, OT, Caeden Wallace (Penn State) is more the latter. He’s a high-floor player with a workmanlike approach to the game who tested better athletically than many expected and one of the few potential rookie starters at right tackle who might still be around at this point in the draft.
Another guy who could play sooner rather than later on the OL is OG, Zak Zinter (Michigan). He’s not huge nor the most impressive athlete, but he’s strong, smart, does a great job with his hands, and would only be around at this point in the draft because he suffered a broken tibia and fibula in late November. While the talk with our linemen is almost always more about mobility due to our affinity for stretch running, that’s a bit more relevant on the outside. At guard, we often prioritize strength (Aaron Banks, Laken Tomlinson) over a guy who lacks punch in the run game. Besides, we are running more and more gap schemes each year.
If you’re drafting Zinter for his floor, you’re taking C, Tanor Bortolini (Wisconsin), aka “Bort” (lol), for his ceiling. He started 28 games in his four years in Wisconsin, playing every position along the OL except for left tackle. Entering the year, he expected to be a starting guard before an injury forced him inside to center. The last-second move led to some expected hiccups, and his shorter arms and lack of power mean he must do everything else better to compensate, but his athletic potential is truly sky-high.
That’s as a guard. When compared to other centers he gets a perfect 10 out of 10 grade. According to Next Gen Stats, Bortolini is only the 5th interior lineman to record a 99 athleticism score since 2003, a group that includes Jason Kelce, the man whose 3-cone record (for interior OL) Bortolini just beat. But he’s not all traits. He’s also one of the smartest linemen in this class, is plenty skilled, and offers some positional flexibility if he doesn’t start right away. We could do much worse this late in the draft than swing on a dude with elite upside at the pivot position.
Every year we look for a guy who could be the heir apparent to Juice and/or a reliable backup to Kittle with some pass-catching ability. TE, Ben Sinnott (Kansas State) is one of the better options we’ve seen. He’s got average size and length and will always be more of a positional blocker in the NFL, but he’s a super smart, fluid athlete, with good change of direction skills (topped all TEs in three-cone, vert, and broad jump at the combine) and the ability to play out of the backfield, in-line, or anywhere else in the formation. He may not be for everyone, but he’s a slam-dunk scheme fit for us.
LB, Trevin Wallace (Kentucky) is a speedy linebacker who could wind up in the late third round, especially after running a 4.51 and posting a 37.5” vertical at the combine. His size, length, and athleticism are undeniably impressive, but–at the moment–he’s a traits guy, which is why I put him here. His consistency, instincts, and awareness are not there at the moment. A lack of instincts on tape doesn’t always mean you won’t get there. Sometimes a player just needs more reps and/or the right coaching to unlock them mentally. But lack of instincts scares me in linebackers like lack of vision scares me in running backs.
Another rangy development linebacker is LB, Cedric Gray (North Carolina), a tackling machine (100+ tackles each of the last three seasons) who stuffed the stat sheet through college. He’s not particularly strong, which can be a problem when he has to take on and shed blocks, but he’s got sideline speed and is an ascending talent in coverage. Even if he has to be protected, he’s got plenty of tools to work with.
While it may seem surprising that USC’s defense had any draftable players last year, S, Calen Bullock (USC) was a Freshman All-American back in 2021, before following that up with second-team and first-team All-Pac-12 selections. With 32 starts over three years, he’s a long cover man with excellent athleticism who plays the ball like a receiver, has the positional flexibility to line up at safety or nickel, and will only be 20 years old by draft day. But he is very skinny for a safety (6’2” 188 lbs.) and–while a willing tackler–that lack of size has shown up in the run game. He’s got genuine ballhawk potential in the NFL, but he’ll need to improve his strength, pursuit angles, and tackling technique to avoid being a liability versus the run.
Now that we’re out of the first two days, we can look more closely at pure slots, and there are a lot of them in this draft. WR, Jacob Cowing (Arizona) is a diminutive player with excellent speed and athleticism, which he routinely shows after the catch. He’ll always be limited by his size and lack of play strength, but a guy who can get open underneath, push vertically, and run after the catch is intriguing on Day 3. And he at least seems willing to block in the run game.
If you’re looking for a different kind of body and a whole different skill set, WR, Brenden Rice (USC) has the size and physicality to make grabs in traffic and in the red zone (one TD for every 5.2 catches in college) but he lacks the quickness and burst we usually require of our receivers to get open underneath. The son of the GOAT is still putting the pieces together and could be a better pro than a college player, but he might find a better fit in a different scheme.
5TH ROUND
Finding a starter in the fourth is a big (yet possible) ask, but finding one in the 5th is simply unrealistic. Yes, Greenlaw, Kittle, and Huf all started as rookie fifth-rounders, but you never want to enter the round expecting that sort of outcome. We only have one pick in this round (176) and will likely be looking for someone with developmental upside who we can bring along slowly. This is also where the ability to play special teams becomes hugely beneficial to any pick’s chances at making the active roster.
We just left the fourth round with a legacy name, so let’s start the fifth with another (kind of). WR, Luke McCaffrey (Rice) is a former QB turned wideout with nice quicks and short-area burst and shockingly good contested catch ability given how new he is to the position (his contested catch rate was second-best in FBS behind only Rome Odunze of Washington).
Despite being CMC’s brother, his athleticism doesn’t always turn into separation at the moment and he’s got a lot of stuff to shore up considering he’s only played the position for two years. But his growth during that time has been explosive, and his upside is legitimately intriguing. McCaffrey is 6’2” 198 lbs., had the fastest short shuttle among all wideouts and the second fastest 3-cone, and already shows great hands, toughness, and work ethic. He also has some experience returning punts. This is more than a legacy play. There’s something here.
WR, Tajh Washington (USC) is more of a slippery, athletic slot who can create after the catch. That YAC ability–plus his knack for getting behind defenders–made him an excellent pairing with Caleb Williams as one of USC’s top big-play threats. While vastly undersized, he was remarkably durable in college and his ability as a return man and gunner would help his chances of making the roster.
We know we’re interested in adding a tight end, and If we’re looking to try and “build one” out of traits, TE, Tip Reiman (Illinois) could be the way to go. At 6’5 271 lbs., he dwarfs a lot of the other tight ends in this class, but he also happened to run a 4.64 at the combine (and–according to NFL.com–his full athletic testing ranked 1st of all tight ends). His character and work ethic are lauded, he played largely in-line (also not common in college) and is a physical blocker both in-line and in space. But he isn’t particularly sudden and–despite starting the past two years–he’s only seen 59 targets in his career(!). Are we likely to be scheming up YAC looks for him anytime soon? No. And he might just top out as a bigger Charlie Woerner who presents little to nothing as a receiver. But with his size and speed, there’s at least some potential for him to be a guy who can bang in the box and threaten with the occasional seam, corner, or crosser in the passing game.
CB, Kalen King (Penn State) is projected anywhere from the 4th to the 7th round, which is wild considering this time last year he was largely considered a first-round pick. A horrid junior year and some poor testing numbers have plummeted his stock, but somewhere in there is the guy who had 21(!) passes defended as a sophomore. At this point in the draft, the upside is high and the downside is minimal.
While King’s stock has been falling, CB, Elijah Jones’ (Boston College) has been rising. With his height (6’1” 185 lbs.), athleticism (4.44 forty, 42.5” vertical), and ball skills (28 broken-up passes and 7 picks over the past two seasons), it’s easy to see why. But he’s got a good amount of sloppiness and inconsistency in his game so is more of a developmental guy—albeit one with tremendous potential.
CB, DeCamerion Richardson (Mississippi State) is another tall (6’2” 188 lbs.) and athletic (4.34 forty, 6.96 3-cone) developmental prospect. His physical tools are as impressive as anyone in the class and he’s an excellent tackler, but you really shouldn’t have as many tackles as he did in college at corner because that means you’re giving up a lot of receptions, and his ability to find and play the ball in the air is a major question. He’s got the right size, tools, and physicality to fit well in our scheme, but if he can’t find the ball in the NFL the floor is quite low.
When is it too early to draft a running back? For us? At any point earlier than right now. RB, Isaac Guerendo (Louisville) is this draft’s size-speed darling, and–in that regard–he is undeniably impressive.
As the chart makes clear, Guerendo’s combination of size, speed, and burst is rare and he’s a home run threat from anywhere on the field, but his career production leaves a lot to be desired. He has a single career start (this year’s bowl game), doesn’t play as big as his size, and his instincts, vision, and patience are all lacking. Yes, those traits can develop, and yes they’re likely easier to develop in a zone and stretch scheme such as ours, but there’s a lot of projection needed for him to move from prospect to player. The intrigue is obvious. If he puts it together he could be like a bigger Mostert in our scheme. But—like linebackers with subpar instincts—running backs with subpar vision have very low floors.
RB, Rasheen Ali (Marshall) is another good schematic fit for us, as his burst, wiggle, and explosiveness (FBS-leading 7 plays of 50+ yards this season) can spring big plays in our zone/stretch-based scheme. He’s undersized, lacks power, runs upright, and has fought injury issues throughout his career, but he’s got a little Matt Breida in him.
If you want tools and upside DE, Jalyx Hunt (Houston Christian) is from a school I quite literally have never heard of, but his length, athleticism, and closing speed are all intriguing. Right now he’s more of an athlete than an edge and is facing a massive jump in competition, but–if we can afford to–he’s an interesting stash and develop guy.
While Hunt likely wouldn’t contribute as a rookie, it’s not hard to see DE, Mohamed Kamara (Colorado State) carving out a subpackage role early. His size (6’1” 248 lbs.) and length are way under what NFL teams are looking for in a full-time starter, but he tested well, has a non-stop motor, and was super productive in college. Just last year he was a Second-Team All-American and he’s racked up 45+ TFLs and 30+ sacks over his college career. While it’s hard to see him being a full-timer at his size, it’s easy to see him being at least a serviceable sub-package edge rusher, and it’s impossible to have too many of those.
6TH ROUND
Dude plays primarily defense and this is his team photo
With picks 211 and 215 in a draft in which the back-end talent is questionable, we’re really just looking for someone with a fighting chance to make the practice squad. Given our roster crunch, it’s honestly easier if this guy can be stashed for the year without getting swooped up by someone else, which means we’ll be looking at a lot of developmental projects and a sprinkling of productive college guys who we’re willing to bet on despite subpar size/speed ratios. The later you get in the draft the more special teams become important (and the more likely I am to pitch every player as a potential fullback), which is why I’m going to lead off this round with…
S, Sione Vaki (Utah), who everyone and their mother has been mocking to the Niners, and—to be fair—we haven’t exactly been hiding our interest. Vaki spent three years on a Mormon mission before joining Utah and–in his second and final year in college–he was named a second-team All-American and a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award for college football’s most versatile player. While starting full-time at safety, he also played running back, rushing for 317 yards and two scores on 7.5 ypc and catching 11 passes for 203 yards and three scores. Against Cal, he rushed for 158 yards and his 72-yard touchdown was the longest of the season for the Utes (lol). He’s fast, aggressive, tough, and wired right, but he doesn’t have the fluidity, instincts, and experience in coverage quite yet. If those tools don’t develop he may never get major reps at safety. But maybe he’s a subpackage box safety? If his frame wasn’t likely maxed out I’d say maybe he’s a future starting linebacker. Or maybe we’re talking the wrong side of the ball and he’s a fullback? Honestly, this late, we should probably just draft him and find out. At worst, he’s an excellent special teamer, and even if he never starts, a special team mainstay with some positional flexibility as a depth piece is a win in the sixth round.
WR, Ainias Smith (Texas A&M) is another smaller slot who started five years at A&M, lining up inside, outside, and even–a little–in the backfield. That sort of versatility, plus his return skills, could intrigue the Niners–even if he has a lengthy injury history and may top out as a special teamer and gadget player in the NFL.
If you squint hard enough, you might be able to see some Kendrick Bourne in WR, Bub Means (Pittsburgh). He’s a good-sized dude (6’1” 212 lbs.) with strong hands and long arms to highpoint the ball and sneaky speed once he gets going. He’s not a dynamo after the catch but he can get yardage with a runway and he has kick return experience. You might have to rebuild his route-running ability from the ground up, but he’s a stash-and-develop player who gets an uptick in value for having the build to play inside or out.
At just under 6’1 and 246 pounds and lacking elite burst and closing speed, DE, Javon Solomon (Troy) was never going to be that high up on anyone’s draft board, but he’s got the arm length of a much bigger dude and leaves Troy with the single season (16) and career (32.5) sacks records. This is the rare player with TWO double-digit sack seasons on his college resume, and it could be worth taking a swing on him as a special teamer and rotational pass rush specialist.
He may be more of an H-back or move tight end in the league, but TE, Erick All (Iowa) is a nice athlete who—in the most Iowa sentence of all time—led the Hawkeyes in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns despite being a tight end and missing the final seven games with an ACL tear. He’s got good movement and ball skills all over the field and is at least capable as a blocker, but the medicals are a massive question mark after missing 18 games over the past two seasons with season-ending injuries.
If you told me there was an undersized white running back playing for New Hampshire named Dylan Laube whose closest comp was Danny Woodhead, I would say it was a bit on the nose. But RB, Dylan Laube (New Hampshire) does exist and his two-way ability is intriguing. He’s short but stocky (5’10” 206 lbs.), quicker than he is sudden, and doesn’t have the power or the deep speed and elusiveness to be a full-time running back. But he’s got return game value and–most importantly–is a highly capable receiver who can run routes out of the backfield or in the slot. While the level of competition is a concern, in his one game against an FBS opponent, he recorded 12 receptions for 295 yards (yes, neither of those are typos) and two scores.
All jokes aside, we are constantly looking for a way to take some of the load off CMC with another back who can contribute in the passing game. While a lot of guys have shown signs of contributing through the air, Laube has already done it.
Speaking of guys who can run and catch the ball, RB, Dillon Johnson (Washington) played three years in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense before becoming the lead runner during Washington’s 2023 National Title game run. The result is a guy who may not be a homerun threat but excels as a pass blocker and receiver (173 career grabs, 0 drops in 2023) and has the quick feet and feel to be effective in zone/stretch concepts.
Most corners coming out of college have the caveat that they “get grabby” at the top routes, but not CB, Chau-Smith Wade (Washington State). Listed as Bleacher Report’s top-rated slot corner(!), Wade had zero penalties as a senior and is a smooth cover man who breaks hard on the ball and is physical run support. He only played outside in college, and at 5’10” 184 lbs. he’s undersized for the position, but he’s got a little DeMo/DJ Reed undersized feistiness in him and that’s worked well for us in the past. Potential sleeper for sure.
If you’re looking for a developmental stash player along the OL, how about a dude who didn’t play OL (not even in high school) until three years ago? OT, Josiah Ezirim (Eastern Kentucky) certainly looks the part, plays with power in the run game, and was good enough to be named Second Team All-American (FCS) in just his third year ever playing the position. He’s got some questions in terms of lateral quickness and A LOT of technique to hammer out, but if there’s any way he can be stashed on the practice squad or IR, the returns could pay dividends down the road.
7TH ROUND/UNDRAFTED
Three of our seventh-round rookies were on the active roster at different points last season and both our starting QB and (almost) Super Bowl MVP Jauan Jennings were seventh-round picks. So this round is nothing to scoff at, even if simply making the active roster at some point down the road is a more reasonable goal for players picked in this range.
With Josh Dobbs and Brandon Allen competing for QB2 and QB3, picking a quarterback in this draft is far from a given. But there’s always a chance that the loser of the backup battle gets swooped up by a QB-needy team, and–this late in the draft–picking someone can’t hurt. Once considered a potential first-round pick, QB, Kedon Slovis (BYU) lit it up as a freshman at USC before falling down to Earth and bouncing between schools in the ensuing years. With solid size, underrated athleticism, decent arm talent, and a breadth of starting experience, there’s reason to think he could develop into a serviceable backup.
Despite this being his first year as a starter, RB, Emani Bailey (TCU) was a bright spot in a largely disappointing season for the Horned Frogs. He’s undersized (5’7” 202 lbs.) but is a well-built, quick-footed, and decisive gasher in the run game who shows some nice potential as a receiver (0 drops on 25 targets). The scheme fit is nice and we could do much worse this late in the draft.
Speaking of scheme fits, the diminutive RB, Keilan Robinson (Texas) will likely go undrafted but his speed, all-purpose special teams ability, and receiving potential could make him an intriguing practice squad stash.
Converted safeties who can run have been a pipeline for us at linebacker and LB, Michael Barrett (Michigan) fits that mold. Aided in part by the extra COVID year, Barrett set a school record by playing in an unimaginable 64(!) college games. A former safety, he slid down to linebacker and started the past two seasons. He doesn’t do anything splashy, nor is he as athletic as many other converted safeties, but he’s got range and smarts and never left the field for a reason.
Sticking with the whole safety turned linebacker thing, LB/S, Jamal Hill (Oregon) played safety/nickel for his first four years before moving over to inside linebacker as a super senior. Unsurprisingly, at 6’0” 216 lbs. and with a background as a safety, he had some issues dealing with bodies in the box. But he’s got great range (4.45 forty), is an experienced cover man, and flies around as a consistent, powerful tackler. He’d need developmental time and–if he can’t pack on pounds–could top out as a subpackage LB on passing downs or a Marcell Harris-type matchup-dependent tweener, but he projects well on special teams right away.
Another linebacker with 60+ college games under his belt, LB, Tatum Bethune (Florida State) is undersized (5’11” 229 lbs.) and lacks the high-end speed and athletic traits to make scouts disregard that, but he finds the ball well, plays bigger than his size, and processes incredibly well. He does the “read key -> attack” thing awfully well, and if he can stick in the NFL it’s likely because of that.
An XXL high school quarterback turned walk-on tight end turned offensive tackle, OT, Tylan Grable (UCF) is understandably raw and unrefined but he’s got excellent athleticism and has improved vastly in his short time along the OL. He’s a stash player with highly intriguing upside who may wind up at center.
OT, Garrett Greenfield (South Dakota State) has considerably more experience, with 55 starts over six years in college. A two-time FCS First-Team All-American, Greenfield is a smooth mover with good athleticism who is at his best blocking zone and stretch plays. He’s an older rookie and lacks heft and length, but he’s a nice scheme fit with some swing tackle potential down the road.
Another 25-year-old but one with a vastly different college story, CB Shon Stephens (Ferris State) was a student at five different schools over a seven(!) year period, with family health problems, eligibility, and NCAA issues causing much of the movement and preventing him from ever playing D-1 (despite mutual interest). He’s undersized but very athletic and has a knack for big plays. He started 22 games over the past two seasons (at two different schools) and was named All-American at both as he recorded 26 pass deflections and 16(!) interceptions. He also returns kicks.
WR, Isaiah Williams (Illinois) is another slot type with return capabilities. A former QB who led his team in receiving all three years that he’s played receiver, he’s savvy and good in space but is quicker than fast and his lack of top-end speed and size/strength have capped his draft stock. But he stuck out on an Illinois offense that was otherwise severely lacking in weapons and could carve out a subpackage role as an underneath guy.
Of all the Texas pass catchers in this draft WR, Jordan Whittington (Texas) is–by far– the least talked about. Despite being a five-star(ish) recruit, injuries ravaged his first three years of college before he finished his last two largely healthy. A good-sized target with decent athleticism, his professionalism, physicality, and toughness are the qualities most likely to earn him a roster spot, but he’s got some YAC ability as well.
If we’re still looking for a Juice-type, TE, Jack Westover (Washington) is a former walk-on who was third on the Washington team in receptions this year despite them having three wideouts likely drafted in the top 100 picks of this draft. He’s not a plus athlete or a powerful run-blocker, but he could carve out a niche in a scheme that asks its H-backs to do a bit of everything.
Let’s close out the watchlist with one of the more interesting deep sleepers in this draft. DE(FB?), Joe Evans (Iowa) is a quarterback turned linebacker turned rush end who didn’t get a combine invite despite leading the Hawkeyes’ top-ranked defense in sacks (9.5) and finishing his career with the fourth-most all-time in school history (28). He’s small (6-1, 246 lbs.) and pretty stiff, but he’s a high-effort guy and he put on an absolute show at his pro day, with a 4.67 forty, 6.98 three-cone, 24 bench reps, and a 41.5” vertical(!). Is he that athletic on the field? Absolutely not. But those traits plus the intangibles he’s known for could make him worth a flier, whether that’s as a subpackage DE or–potentially–at fullback (where he’s been training a bit leading up to the draft).
TLDR
We currently have seven picks on the third day but don’t expect us to use all of them. Addressing any remaining urgent needs from the first two days is the top priority before filling out the rest of our draft with guys who can contribute immediately on specials or get stashed for a year for their upside. While some argue that the third day of this draft features a steep talent dropoff and that there are fewer “draftable” players this year than in the past few, there are a bunch of guys in these latter rounds who look like possible scheme fits.
Those scheme fits include—but are not limited to—running backs with pass-catching ability, zone/stretch specialists, rangy linebackers who have potentially been converted from safeties, subpackage edge rushers, undersized but scrappy overachieving corners, bigger developmental corners, and—of course—potential fullbacks.
Go Niners 🏈👍
Day 2 Watchlist
More big guys and maybe some small ones too
With two picks (No. 63 and No. 94) on the second day, we should be looking to add two guys who can either play significant snaps this season and/or fill major holes a year from now. The positions we’ll be targeting will obviously depend in part on who we picked on day one, but I think our goal should be to address three of these four positions by the end of day 2: OL, CB, DL, and WR. Filling only two of those positions is fair game if we find tremendous value somewhere else. The only position we 100% HAVE to address within these first three rounds is offensive line. If not, I will lose my shit.
With this class having notable depth at OL and WR, plus a cluster of cornerbacks with 2nd-to-3rd round grades, it would make a lot of sense for our first three picks to be at those positions. But we don’t want to reach for need and there are more than a few defensive linemen who seem to be hovering a bit under the radar given their talent level
For this write-up I’m going to look (mostly) at players ranked in the consensus top 100 (# next to their name). Anyone outside the top 100 will be labeled with an estimated selection round. Players will be clustered based on their positions for ease of discussion and reading (and so you can skip entire sections depending on who we drafted the day before).
OFFENSIVE LINE
We’re starting with the big boys again simply because if we didn’t draft an offensive lineman in the first round I will be shitting bricks consistently until we do on day 2. After the Top 9 offensive tackles mentioned (or alluded to) in the day 1 watchlist, only three tackles remain in the top 100 (with a few others knocking on the door).
First up, two mammoth tackles with ideal frames and plenty of athleticism. Kiran Amegadjie (Yale, #66) is one of the great question marks of this draft. He didn’t play football until midway through high school, had one year of college ball canceled due to the pandemic shutdown, and only played four games last year before going down with an injury that kept him out of nearly the entire pre-draft evaluation process. The red flags are obvious and it’s unlikely he could contribute as a rookie, but the traits teams covet are equally as apparent.
I dunno where the shit Morgan State is, but pancakes in pass pro off redirects are always chill. Amegadjie’s size, length, and athleticism are all elite, his work ethic and smarts are universally lauded, and there’s no question his best football is ahead of him.
Meanwhile, Patrick Paul (Houston, #67) has a slightly bigger frame and slightly worse athleticism, but—despite starting four straight years at Houston, three of which he was named First-Team All-Conference—he’s also got plenty of technique work to clean up. He plays too high, struggles on redirects, and can get sloppy, lunge, and lose balance—particularly in the run game—which has led to several penalties throughout his career. Like Amegadjie, he seems to be wired right, but he’s not as game-ready as you’d expect after 44 collegiate starts.
Blake Fisher (Notre Dame, #75) is a naturally talented and athletic tackle who is at his best blocking on the move in zone and stretch run games. He has the athleticism to deal with redirects and countermoves, but he needs to shore up his technique and angles and can sometimes struggle to shift to plan B when things get dicey. Due in part to that, his projection is more positive as a run blocker than a pass blocker.
Rounding out the tackles, Roger Rosengarten (Washington, 2nd-3rd round) is an athletic and aggressive tackle with great quicks in the trenches and ability in space, but his lack of play strength is always going to be an issue. Mel Kiper keeps mocking him to us in the first round, which is, uh… a bit high. Brandon Coleman (TCU, 2nd-3rd round) is a tough brawler who plays well in space but could benefit from cleaning up his technique so he doesn’t have to brawl as much.
The interior line has a few more options, including two high-floor guard prospects. Cooper Beebe (Kansas State, #62) is a savvy and accomplished 48-game starter whose lack of length and ideal athleticism may cap his potential, but his floor is starter-level. Comparatively, Christian Haynes (UConn, #61) has a bit more size and athleticism but gives up some consistency to Beebe. Both are safe prospects. Both are likely starters.
At center, Zach Frazier (West Virginia, #46) could be a sneaky find despite being a four-year starter in a major conference. A four-time state champ in wrestling, Frazier’s got a good first step and (unsurprisingly) super strong hands. He rarely makes mistakes, erases dudes once he latches on, and is well-versed in both zone and gap schemes. Despite his lack of length and middling athleticism, in most other classes he’s probably the first center off the board. He just happens to be in a class where two centers who could go in the first round overshadow him.
Finally, if versatility is what you’re looking for, Dominick Puni (Kansas, #87) has started games at both guard and tackle in his six(!) years in college and has even played snaps at center. He probably doesn’t have the athleticism to line up outside full-time, but could be a starter on the interior and has the power and versatility to be the rare swing for all five spots along the OL.
Shot in the Dark: I like the kid from Yale but think he may go overdrafted by a team out of contention who has more time to develop him. It’s easy to see him and Patrick Paul going off the board before we get our first pick on day 2. Fisher and Rosengarten are both nice scheme fits and are especially intriguing if we can snag them in the third round after the mad run on tackles. The interior guys aren’t sexy but they all seem safe, with Frazier being the most appealing.
WIDE RECEIVER
Like cornerback, wide receiver is a position that we may not need immediately but could desperately need a year from now. Unlike cornerback, it’s a little harder for us to pinpoint exactly what we want this position group to look like moving forward, which in turn makes it difficult to determine which type of prospect we’re looking for.
With how many snaps tight ends and fullbacks get in our system and how run-heavy and physical we are, my guess is that the Niners don’t want to pay multiple receivers big money at the same time and that they’d rather spend their cap on a single alpha (Aiyuk) and surround him with a deeper crop of receivers whom they can mix and match situationally. Think of it like the Packers receiving corps but with a true No.1.
Because of that, I don’t think we’ll be as interested in pure slot guys without game-breaking gadget play speed and/or excellent YAC ability. That could drop Ricky Pearsall (Florida, #49) and Jalen McMillan (Washington, #81) on our boards, but I wouldn’t quite close the door on Roman Wilson (Michigan, #44). While Wilson has a slot body like the others and didn’t show a ton of wiggle in the open field in college, he’s got legit burner speed, cuts on a dime through his routes, and–super important for any slot trying to cut it with the Niners–is already a physical and willing blocker. Once he learns to tempo and sell his routes, he could vastly overperform his college production and shape himself into a genuine three-level threat. While the best place for him to do that would likely be in a wide-open offense that likes to throw vertically, he may appeal to the Niners more than most slots.
When it comes to bigger-bodied X receivers, Tez Walker (North Carolina, #74) is a smooth, long-striding vertical threat, but when he has to break down, make hard cuts, and basically do anything short of 15 yards, he’s a different (much worse) player. Intriguing, but likely too one-dimensional for us. Javon Baker (UCF, #88) is another strong athlete who can win both down the field or on screens and other schemed-up “room-to-run” plays. He averaged an FBS-second-best 21.9 ypc this season, but his game has a lot of inconsistencies and inefficiencies. Interesting talent but a developmental one, so the price has to be right.
If I had to guess, I’d say our most likely day 2 receiver would be one of the three names below—all of whom have vastly different skillsets.
Ja’Lynn Polk (Washington, #69)—the third Washington wideout to be in the top 100 this year—isn’t anywhere near the kind of athlete that Tez or Baker is, but he’s a much more polished and physical presence and thrives on the underneath routes we love so much. His lack of top-end speed and burst are question marks in terms of separation—and some wonder if he’ll be relegated to a zone-beater role because of it—but his footwork, physicality, and route-running skills are advanced and his ability to play strong from his route through the catch point means he can get by with less separation than most. He’s cut more from the Pierre Garcon/Anquan Boldin mold.
If you’re interested in size-speed combos then Xavier Legette (South Carolina, #58) is your man. At 6’1” 223 lbs. he looks more like a power running back than an X receiver and his game has a lot of DK Metcalf to it. Dude is an absolute athlete (4.39 forty, 40” vertical), is a load to bring down in the open field, and flashes some truly impressive ability at the catch point. I don’t know how quick and slippery he is and there’s a legitimate real chance he never becomes a good route-runner. That’s typically not the sort of guy we look at, but—given his vertical ability and YAC skills—we may just call a fuck it and deploy him as a “three S” (streak, slant, screen) guy, knowing we can scheme up those kinds of looks as good as anyone in football.
The last wideout I’ll mention has been mocked to us a bunch, and–when you see his highlight–it’ll be easy to see why. Malachi Corley (Western Kentucky, #56) is the closest thing to Deebo Samuel that you’ll find in this draft. At 5’11” 215 lbs., he looks and runs like a running back, fully earning his “YAC King” nickname.
As the most talented dude on the Western Kentucky offense (by far), Corley mostly played out of the slot and had a high percentage of his targets schemed up for him so that he could get the ball as much as physically possible. Like a HIGH percentage. As in nearly half of his catches occurred BEHIND the line of scrimmage.
Due to that, his route-running needs plenty of work. He’s also had drop issues and–due in part to his average catch radius–hasn’t shown that he can thrive catching in traffic or stretching the field vertically. Is Corley the closest thing to a 1-for-1 Deebo replacement? Yes. And it would be endlessly entertaining to see him deployed in our offense. But it’s worth noting that the last two players drafted as “Deebo Samuel types” were Laviska Shenault and Lynn Bowden Jr. so… replacing Deebo is easier said than done.
Outside of the Top 100, Malik Washington (Virginia, 3rd-4th) is definitely just a slot receiver, but he’s twitchy, tough, forced more missed tackles than any other wideout in FBS, and (unlike the dudes mentioned earlier) is highly likely to be around at the end of the third round. Jermaine Burton’s (Alabama, 3rd-4th) on-field highlights belie his inconsistency and won’t offset his off-the-field lowlights. Pass.
Shot in the Dark: As someone who realizes how entertaining it would be to see him in red and gold, I’m legally required to say Corley, but Polk seems like just as good a fit—if not more so—and is probably getting slept on in this class due to how many “high ceiling” types he’s surrounded by. While perhaps the most exciting of the prospects, Legette is likely in third, with our best chance of landing him likely involving a slide to the third round and daydreams involving him becoming a vertical threat, elite blocker, YAC guy, and the mythical Lisan-al-Jumbo Slot all in one.
I’d be more than happy with any of those three, and if they’re off the board and we’re picking a wideout at the end of the third, I’d likely be cool with Malik Washington as well.
CORNERBACKS
How much do we value the nickel corner position? We certainly know what can happen when play there is poor (Isaiah Oliver) and we’ve gotten a considerable boost when we’ve had a genuine stud at the position (Jimmie Ward, K’Waun Williams). We also just brought in a guy who knows a thing or two about deploying big-time players to the best of their abilities in the slot (Jalen Ramsey, Derwin James) and how that can open things up schematically. But then again we’ve also started some random vets off the street in big-time games (Dre Kirkpatrick, Logan Ryan) and haven’t missed a beat.
Outside corner will ALWAYS be a higher priority, and—if we’re taking a corner on the second day—we’ll likely be looking for someone who can start outside in nickel packages and—potentially—be a full-time starter a year from now. But nickel corners who are versatile and can be plus disruptors rather than just “guys we don’t want getting beat deep and missing tackles” are still a valuable weapon defensively, so they shouldn’t be written off.
At 6’1” 189 lbs. and with long arms, T.J. Tampa (Iowa State, #57) is an outside corner through and through. He’s physical, sees plays develop, breaks hard on the ball, and his length regularly muddies up the catch point. He has press-man potential but is at his best in zone coverage, with his weaknesses (lack of top-end speed and average athleticism) showing up most often in off-man trail technique—where he can give up too much separation down the field. So his strengths fit our scheme and his weaknesses show up most in the coverage we rarely play. As long as he passes our athletic minimums for the position, he feels like a good fit.
Conversely, Mike Sainristil (Michigan, #65)—at 5’9” 182 lbs.—is a nickel through-and-through. While his size will be an issue and will take him off some draft boards, he is massively impressive in basically every other way. Despite not moving over to defense until 2022(!), Sainristil immediately became a full-time starter, team captain, splash play specialist, and first-team All-American by 2023. He’ll give some stuff up against bigger wideouts, and there are some red flags regarding his forced incompletion rates and down-to-down consistency, but his instincts, ball skills, and knack for generating big plays at timely moments are as good as anyone in this draft.
If you’re looking for someone with positional flexibility, Max Melton (Rutgers, #71) has plenty of reps as an outside corner and in the slot and is adept at both press man and off coverage. When playing off zone, he does a good job of seeing routes develop and breaking on them with his plus ball skills (30 pass deflections, 8 picks over his last three years). He also presents immediate special teams value (4 blocked punts). He’s a little tight/linear, could stand to add some play strength, and he was arrested and suspended in 2021 for a paintball incident that led to multiple injuries, so we’d have to do our homework.
There are six corners in the final dozen spots of the consensus Top 100. Andru Phillips (Kentucky, #89) is an inconsistent but ascending corner with a physical presence and some inside-out versatility, but his ball skills leave much to be desired (10 PD, 0 picks in college) and he was charged with robbing a frathouse(!?) two years ago. The charges were later dropped and frat houses are kind of set up to be robbed, but still… it bears investigating. Renardo Green (Florida State, #92) is all over the place on peoples’ big boards but he has enough supporters to land in the consensus top 100. Those supporters all likely saw the excellent work he did against LSU last September. He’s a press-man specialist who gets a bit too grabby and lacks ideal top-end speed or athletic traits but is probably coverage-savvy enough to stick in the NFL for a while.
DJ James (Auburn, #93) has a projectable blend of athleticism but his lack of size and strength may keep him off the field initially and relegate him to long-term nickel work. Similar story for Kris Abrams-Draine (Missouri, #91), whose got great ball skills (three straight years with 10+ PDs) and has both return and gunner value on special teams, but—like James—is thin-framed and plays at under 180 lbs.
If you’re looking for bigger, more developmental guys then Cam Hart (Notre Dame, #98) has the size (6’3” 202 lbs.) and athletic ability that teams covet. He needs to clean up his technique and footwork and doesn’t show elite burst at the break point, but it’s worth wondering if his size and athletic makeup would fit better in a zone scheme like ours versus the man-heavy defense he ran in college. At 6’3 194 lbs., Khyree Jackson (Oregon, #99) is another “looks the part” guy, but he didn’t really play the part until this past season. Jackson was part of the class of 2017 and will be 25(!) by the time he plays in his first NFL game. His story—which includes leaving his JuCo squad as a freshman to go home, bag groceries, and train for NBA 2k tournaments—is fascinating and so is his vast potential, but these types of prospects—who bounce around, sit out of football for a while, and have clear maturity issues that you can only hope are in the rearview—flame out more often than not.
Shot in the Dark: Looooot of character checks are needed for these middle-round corner prospects. The most obvious match—but probably also the most coveted player—is TJ Tampa, who seems to fit our scheme like a glove. I also like Sainristil, but I assume he’s swooped up before our third-round pick, and—despite loving the player—that’s a bit high for a nickel unless our plan is to highlight that position more in our scheme.
In the third round, Abrams-Draine intrigues me—especially if we think he has the frame to gain any weight/strength whatsoever. I could also be convinced to swing on the developmental upside of Cam Hart in hopes that he’s a better fit in our defense than the scheme he ran in college. But I’ll admit that his lack of ball skills scare me and I’d rather take that kind of player on Day 3.
DEFENSIVE TACKLES
I’m gonna split the DL up. The interior guys feel a bit more proven than the edges in this class, and—due to that—the depth through the second day looks quite strong.
While scouts often disagree on prospects, how they disagree on Braden Fiske (Florida State, #43) is quite fascinating. As a sixth-year senior who was productive in his first year in Tallahassee but is still raw in many ways (like hand usage) and has short arms, some believe he’s a low-ceiling player. But as a guy who shows excellent hustle, played only one year of Power 5 ball, and tested out of his mind at the combine, others believe there’s another level to unlock with time and the right position coach. I’d tend to agree with the latter. He could be pretty filthy.
Another high-effort DT with the athletic traits to take another step in the NFL is Kris Jenkins (Michigan, #54), the son of a former Pro Bowl defensive tackle whose professional work ethic and athletic traits earned him the nickname “The Mutant” in Ann Arbor. Despite his great movement skills, they don’t always show up on tape, and his game is currently rooted more in power. He’ll enter the league immediately as a plus run defender and has the versatility to play inside in a one-gap scheme or outside in a two-gap scheme, but he’ll need to develop his hand usage and pass rush plan to hit his ceiling as a pass rusher.
For better or worse, Ruke Orhorhoro’s (Clemson, #63) play-style can be considered messy. His high effort, strong first-step, and impressive athletic traits help him muck up the works along the line of scrimmage, but he rarely beats blockers cleanly and his wins require a considerable amount of effort. The effort is great. The technique and pass rush plan? Not so much. If he can put it all together and stop making every snap a dogfight, he’s got an impressive ceiling as a two-way defender.
The latest pupil from renowned defensive line coach Larry Johnson, Mike Hall (Ohio State, #76) has impressive movement skills, a great first step, and—on a pound-for-pound basis—good strength. His splash plays are impressive and it’s not hard to see how he could translate into a productive NFL pass rusher. You only wish he was a little bit bigger. He’s a bit of a tweener, which could cause issues against the run and be particularly problematic against NFL size. Our scheme is better than most at hiding some of those issues, but if he could get better with his hands and more adept at keeping blockers off him when he doesn’t beat them off the snap, it would go a long way to making him a lineup fixture rather than a rotational pass rusher.
Speaking of tweeners, Brandon Dorlus (Oregon, #82) is a long, smooth athlete with excellent movement skills and good strength, but his size (6’3” 283 lbs.) makes him difficult to place. He could wind up a power end, but does he have the appropriate burst and closing speed? He seems too small to play the three-tech full-time. He might fit best in one of those amorphous front defenses like the Ravens, but the dream (from our perspective) is that he could become an Armstead/Key/Omenihu-like inside-out threat. The tools are there. It would just require a very specific developmental plan.
If you asked two years ago, Maason Smith (LSU, #83) might have been slotted for a top 15 selection. But following the former five-star recruit’s Freshman All-American season, he tore his ACL ten snaps into the first game of his sophomore year and spent the majority of his junior season working back to full strength. His size is excellent and he’s got a great first step, but he’s obviously a developmental project—albeit one with an impressive ceiling.
Finally, I’ll mention T’Vondre Sweat (Texas, #47)—the only guy on this list I do NOT want the Niners to draft on Day 2. I don’t know what the hit rate is for overweight defensive tackles with maturity issues who only put it together right before they can score an NFL payday, but it ain’t good. And it’s much harder to convince yourself that something clicked and he “finally figured it out” given he just got a DWI last week. Hard pass.
Shot in the Dark: I am much more excited about this position group after completing their write-ups. Fiske seems like the best value in the second round, but I wouldn’t be against Orhorhoro either. At the bottom of the third, Mike Hall seems like a nice scheme fit, and a flier on Maason Smith is quite intriguing considering we’ve got one of the top DL coaches in the world and we don’t need a DT to play meaningful snaps this year. Realistically, I would be happy with any of these guys other than Sweat.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
I wouldn’t consider the defensive end crop to be nearly as deep as the defensive tackles, either in this round or in the draft as a whole, but the position group still presents plenty of intrigue and some high-upside talent.
Tasked with the unenviable position of replacing Will Anderson, Chris Braswell (Alabama, #51)—in his first season as a starter—led the SEC in pressures (56) and is only scratching the surface of his potential. A former five-star prospect, Braswell can squat upwards of 700 pounds and has been clocked at running 21.9 miles per hour, so… yeah. He’s an athlete. He’s got a great first step, can convert speed into power, and is a rugged, high-effort player. But his size (6’3” 251 lbs.) is a concern—particularly against the run—and needs to find more ways to string together rush moves to win when he can’t blow by people. There’s a world where he’s better as a stand-up edge in a 3-4 scheme, but it’s not hard to picture him slotting immediately into our Turbo sets.
Going from a former top twenty player to a guy who was ranked 3,427th nationally out of high school, Marshawn Kneeland (Western Michigan, #59) is a small-school end whose college production doesn’t jump off the stat sheet (28 TFLs, 13 sacks over four years). But the scouting community is high on him because he’s got good size and athleticism and his tape looks much better than his numbers. There’s projection and development needed, but most signs point to a late bloomer whose best football is ahead of him.
Bralen Trice (Washington, #60) was the tone-setter for the Huskies’ defense this year and he was all over the place on film, leading his team in sacks and being named the CFP Semifinal defensive MVP. A team captain who brings a physical presence, a non-stop motor, and refined hand usage, you’d think he’d be higher on lists, but there are genuine concerns about his lack of burst, length, and fluidity capping his potential in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him become either a try-hard rotational rusher or a dude who vastly outplays his draft position.
The last three guys are on the smaller side. Both Adisa Isaac (Penn State, #64) and Jonah Elliss (Utah, #77) are high-effort outside rushers with good first steps and the potential to develop into productive pass rushers, but both are undersized, are good—not great—athletes, and may be better suited for stand-up 3-4 duties. Look, we played Dee Ford on the edge, so the wide 9 can absolutely find snaps for a smaller dude if he’s fast and slippery enough. But guys of that size always have a lower floor because they run the risk of being relegated to subpackage rushers if they can’t outplay their size.
Finally, Austin Booker (Kansas, #85) is also in the ~240 range, but—unlike the guys just mentioned—he’s got the length and frame to add considerably more weight. Also unlike the guys just mentioned, he’s only played 505 career(!) snaps of college football. He sat on the bench in Minnesota for two years before transferring to Kansas and leading the team in sacks… off the bench. His sample size is insanely thin and truly alarming, and you have to wonder how in the hell a guy like this couldn’t have seen the field in Minnesota. But you rarely see that type of length with those type of movement skills and the ceiling is quite high.
Shot in the Dark: I have faith in Coach Kocurek, so I rarely question our defensive line picks, and—unless there’s a true pass rush technician on the board—I often lean towards swinging for traits and character on the edges and hope the rest comes together. Plus, while 2025 could be a different story, none of these guys will be asked to start this season. At best, they’ll be our first end off the bench in Bravo sets. So we’ve got a year to develop a guy if need be.
EVERYONE ELSE
Round 2 seems pretty high for a safety given our roster, scheme, and team-building approach. Honestly—given our current depth chart and the veteran safeties available—so does round 3. But there will likely be some options. Both Cole Bishop (Utah, #86) and Jaden Hicks (Washington State, #68) are physical, scheme-versatile types. Tyler Nubin (#45) was a four-year starter with good coverage range and impressive ball production (24 PDs, school-record 13 career INTs). Whereas Javon Bullard (Georgia, #55) could be more of a slot/star/nickel type. Again, I doubt we’re interested in any of them unless they fall to the bottom of the third (or lower).
Tight end is another position we’re clearly interested in and one that’s been floated as a possibility on the back end of the second day. There is an absolute talent chasm at the position after Brock Bowers, but a cluster of options late on day 2/early on day 3.
Ja’Tavion Sanders (Texas, #50) is the best of the non-Bowers bunch, almost entirely for his receiving ability. He’s an excellent athlete, is silky smooth, shows great burst, and has good top-end speed. He’s undersized, is a meh blocker, and will need to improve his route running beyond spamming seams and RPOs, but the physical tools, adjustment ability, and reliable hands (only player in FBS with 45+ catches and 0 drops) make for a prospect with genuinely impressive potential in the passing game.
Potential and upside are also the primary pitching points for Theo Johnson (Penn State, 3rd round), whose size and testing numbers would indicate he’ll immediately be one of the most athletic tight ends in all of football. I know he’s green and is just scratching the surface of his potential, but I just don’t see the athleticism on tape. Maybe it comes with time, comfort, and confidence. But that’s a gamble.
Jared Wiley (TCU, 3rd round) isn’t nearly the athlete Johnson or Sanders are, but he’s got great size, a frame to hold more weight, and the wingspan, adjustment ability, and hands to excel as a post-up man and redzone threat. Now, does he have the burst to get himself free on anything underneath? TBD. But if you’re looking for a dude who could grow into a solid blocker and still threaten teams on seams, posts, and corners once in a while, Wiley can do that with his size—even if his athleticism and separation ability are lacking.
Another reliable—albeit unspectacular—option around the end of day 2 could be Cade Stover (Ohio State, 3rd-4th round). The former linebacker catches everything smoothly and is adept at getting open on underneath routes, but he won’t wow anyone with his explosiveness as a receiver or ability as an in-line blocker. There are two more tight ends who have been often linked to the Niners but they're cuspy here so I’ll leave them for the Day 3 write-up.
Finally, with Dre Greenlaw in rehab and entering the final year of his contract, it’s worth noting a few linebackers. Junior Colson (Michigan, #48) is a rangy, physical, tackling machine with plus athleticism who continues to make strides in coverage. His ball production and turnover-generation are lacking but he’s a rock-solid, high-upside type.
Edgerrin Cooper (Texas A&M, #39) is another speedy guy with coverage ability. He has more splash plays than Colson, racking up 8 sacks last year and leading the SEC in tackles for loss (17.0), but also has more whiffs and overruns. Given the pass rush numbers I would assume he finds his way to a 3-4 team that utilizes heavy blitzing or sim pressures.
Last but not least, Payton Wilson (NC State, #42) has truly impressive athletic traits (4.43 forty) and big-play production (15 career sacks, 20 pass deflections, 7 interceptions), garnering more than a few Leighton Van Der Esch comps. Unfortunately, Wilson’s lengthy injury history and lack of size make that comp accurate in more ways than one.
Shot in the Dark: Drafting any of these positions isn’t likely until—at the earliest—our pick at the bottom of the third round. At that point, I’d guess tight end becomes the most probable, and when we draft tight ends we typically look more for traits than immediate pro-readiness. There’s some data to back that up.
I like Sanders a lot, but he will almost certainly be off the board at this point, which seems to point to someone like Theo Johnson, who… I don’t love. At that point, I’d rather take a dude in the rounds that follow or one of the safeties—who all seem like future starters. My guess is none of these positions get picked until Day 3.
TLDR
Right tackle continues to be the position of choice in the first round, and we’re all but certain to address the OL somewhere in the first two days. That would leave two other picks, which—if I had to guess—I’d say would go to DT and WR due to the depth at the two positions. Depending on how the draft shakes out, DE is always a possibility instead of DT. Drafting either would be operating with an eye toward the future. The recent signing of Rock Ya-Sin seems to signal that drafting a cornerback in the first two days is less likely than it was a week ago unless someone falls into our lap. Similar to corner, safety and tight end are highly likely selections during this draft, but my best guess would be they’re all addressed on day 3.
If we can exit the first two days of the draft with a new starter along the offensive line, a high-potential defensive lineman with immediate subpackage ability, and a scheme-fit wideout who we can imagine starting a year from now, we should be ecstatic.
Go Niners 🏈👍