Oh, shit! Breaking down the first two days of 49ers free agency

Before dominating some poor interior lineman no doubt [Ezra Shaw/Getty Images]

There were always questions about how the Niners would free up the cap space necessary to retain and extend their core players. But after a flurry of moves on Monday, those questions have largely been answered.

Even if those answers came in shocking fashion.

Let’s get to it.

NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement

I won’t go in-depth into this deal (at least not right now), but — for free agent and draft purposes — the most important element of the new CBA is that while the players will get 47% of league revenue in 2020, that hops to 48% in 2021.

That may not seem like a lot, but with the continual growth in revenue from media deals, new stadiums, etc. the NFL has seen a salary cap increase of $10M or more in each of the past seven years. So, if the NFL’s next media deal is on par with its current one, the 2021 cap will see a one-time spike.

While that doesn’t mean a lot for staying under the 2020 cap, it does put a team like the Niners in a position where they would preferably retain their core players this year instead of next (as salaries should be looked at as % of cap spent rather than pure money). It also means there will be a lot of back-loaded contracts this off-season.

Okay, now let’s look at the deals (in chronological order)…

Re-signed Arik Armstead to a five-year $85M contract

Bringing back Armstead was thought to be a major priority this off-season, and while some may have seen that as a smokescreen or an attempt to maintain leverage in the case of a tag-and-trade situation, the Niners showed they were serious early on Monday.

We’ve already talked a bit about the risks of re-signing Armstead to a long deal and how — despite those risks — there was enough evidence pointing to 2019 as a season where he was coming into his own rather than balling out for a payday that such an extension would make sense. So in short, despite 2019 being his only strong pass rushing season (he has always been a great run defender), I’m a fan of the extension.

On paper, the contract is fair and (in stark contrast to the sticker shock of past Niners contracts like Kwon Alexander’s) openly team friendly. Armstead is averaging $17M a year over the course of the contract, a figure that makes him the 11th-highest paid defensive lineman in the NFL. Since he’s the most recent defensive lineman to sign a long-term deal, that ranking will certainly drop in the ensuing days, but — as it stands now — he’s making less per year than the 2018 signings of teammate Dee Ford ($17.1M), Trey Flowers ($18M), Frank Clark ($20.8M), or DeMarcus Lawrence ($21M), and is within $1 million a year of guys like Leonard Williams ($17M), Olivier Vernon ($17M), Geno Atkins ($16.3M), and Kawann Short ($16.1M). It’s also worth noting that Armstead is only 26 years old, and it’s well within reason to expect him to improve over the next few years. But even if he’s topped out, as long as he stays around the productivity level he set in 2019, this is a high value deal.

The salary cap structure of Armstead’s contract is back-loaded, speaking both to our limited cap space this year and the spike to come in 2021. His cap hits for the next five years are as follows:

2020 - $6M

2021 - $12.5M

2022 - $20M

2023 - $21.7M

2024 - $23.3M

But Armstead’s contract can’t be looked at in a vacuum, as his re-signing was clearly done in conjunction with the Niners’ next move…

Traded DeForest Buckner to the Colts for the 13th Overall Pick in the 2020 Draft

It’s tough to watch Buckner, who was the rock of our defense through the garbage years and one of the most consistent and durable defensive linemen in all of football throughout his career, get swapped out for a pick when all the talk leading up to this was how he would be a priority extension for the Niners. But… when the emotions settle and you look at it practically, the deal makes a lot of sense for both parties.

The Colts — a team rife with cap space that has been critiqued in the past for being too thrifty in their off-season spending — get a building block along their defensive line, a disruptive three-tech who can help offset some of their lower achieving players up front and a guy who gives them a young stud at each level of their defense. And — with a second-best $85M in cap space — they can afford it, signing DeFo to a contract that averages a whopping $21M per year over five years.

We’ve talked about it before, but ultimately the Niners could not afford to pay big money to three defensive linemen at once (with a fourth due up in a few years when Bosa can be extended). And while that talk was centered more around next off-season and whether or not Dee Ford would be retained if he wasn’t healthier in 2020, the Niners made the move now. They flipped Buckner while his value was high and they had contract leverage, figuring that an additional $4M in annual cap space, a mid-first round pick, and the outside-in versatility of Armstead were worth more than the (probably second round) pick they could have gotten for an Armstead tag-and-trade and DeFo’s longer track record of health and performance.

Make no mistake, this trade makes our defensive line worse, particularly in passing downs when the DeFo and Armstead combo on the inside was wildly unfair to the interior linemen of this world. But with DJ Jones’ emergence as a one-tech, with Jullian Taylor and Kevin Givens both young and showing tons of promise on the interior, and with Solomon Thomas — in the last year of his rookie contract — finally able to play his best natural fit position as a three-tech, the Niners are in as good a position as any team could be to mitigate the damage of Buckner’s loss.

Because ultimately, while I love DeFo, there are AT MOST four interior defensive linemen who could argue that they’re worth over $20M a year (Aaron Donald, Grady Jarrett, Fletcher Cox, and a healthy Chris Jones). And the only one of them currently making that money (and the only one who you are absolutely sure is worth it) is Aaron Donald. $21M a year is simply too much for DeFo, and as we added talent on the edges and shifted to the Wide 9 scheme, Buckner’s incredible physical gifts at his size were less on display as in his previous years. Frankly, his position just became a bit less valuable than before.

The move immediately frees up $12M in cap space and gives us the 13th overall pick in a historically good and deep draft class for wide receivers (and a class where many mock drafts don’t have a wideout going until #12). We are now right in the thick of this wideout class and still have our 31st overall pick, which — unless someone slides drastically — I expect us to package and trade down to accumulate picks in the second and later rounds.

It also shows that Lynch and Shanahan — while committed to building the team from the locker room out — are also willing to make the unsentimental decisions if they think it’s best for the long-term future of the team. That’s something that — to this point at least — has been untested, and something that they’ll need to do each year to keep us in contention.

But as fans, we’re allowed to be sentimental, and it’s tough to see Buckner, who helped anchor the squad on and off the field through some dark times and was a key component in getting us back to the Super Bowl, get shipped out of town. Even if the move makes sense.

Happy Trails DeFo. Best of luck in Indianapolis.

Re-signed Jimmie Ward to a three-year $28.5M contract

Last night, the Niners locked up 10 of their 11 defensive starters from last year by giving Ward a three-year deal with an average annual salary of $9.5M. That ranks him 13th highest-paid amongst safeties, narrowly edging Adrian Amos’ 2019 deal but falling well short of the deals handed out to Eddie Jackson ($14.6M), Kevin Byard ($14.1M), Tyrann Mathieu ($14M), or Earl Thomas ($13.8M) last off-season.

Like Armstead, Ward’s contract is backloaded. The cap hits for his three year deal are as follows:

2020 - $4.6M

2021 - $11.6M

2022 - $12.3M

It’s a good deal. If Ward plays anything like he did last year then we’ve got him at quite the discount. And if his significant injury concerns pop up once again… well, at least we have Tarvarius Moore behind him. As well as a contract that has only an $8M signing bonus and thus — if his availability and/or play require it — the flexibility to release him in 2022 and save $10M off the cap. I don’t know what availability / health bonuses and clauses are put into this contract, but — given Ward’s extensive injury history — I would hope there are many.

This also gives us a bit of consistency moving forward with our secondary. As mentioned before, while our top four cornerbacks and top three safeties are now all locked up for this season, 2021 has Richard Sherman, Jaquiski Tartt, K’Waun Williams, and Akhello Witherspoon all as unrestricted free agents (plus Emmanuel Moseley as an ERFA). There could be a lot of turnover in the near future, but at least re-signing Ward means we have someone locked up beyond this year.

Re-signed Ronald Blair to a one-year deal

As recently as this morning, Blair was said to be linked to the Browns — where former Niners coaches Joe Woods and Chris Kiffin now reside — but apparently that’s no longer the case. According to Ian Rapoport, Blair will be returning to the bay on a one-year prove-it deal, with the idea that he can play well and cash-in on the free agent market in 2021.

This is a major win for both parties, as Blair had really come into his own in 2019 as an outstanding second-line defensive end who also had the heft and ability to slide inside. With Buckner gone, expect to see even more of Blair at tackle, particularly on passing downs. And while he didn’t play enough snaps to qualify for end-of-season rankings, Blair’s 77.5 PFF rating through 8.5 games would have ranked him 25th in the league among edge defenders.

From Blair’s POV, while he had a career year in 2019, jumping ship to another team and scheme while coming off an ACL injury was bound to limit his market. Matt Maiocco has noted that other teams may have been wary because the coronavirus didn’t allow them to bring Blair into their facility for a medical checkup, and — likewise — Blair may have been discouraged with the thought of complicating his rehab with a timetable and a process that is entirely unpredictable as the country continues to deal with the effects of the current pandemic. With the Niners he can continue his rehab with the people he knows on a set schedule, and he can try and leverage a strong 2020 into a more lucrative free agent contract. And, since he is an edge rusher and those contracts are always high, that could mean a substantial compensatory pick for us in 2022 if he does indeed net a big payday.

Re-signing Blair was an under-the-radar priority move, one made even more important once Buckner was traded. Hopefully we can also retain Damontre Moore, whose 75.0 PFF rating (albeit through only two games) would have ranked him 28th in the league among edge defenders. Moore doesn’t have the versatility nor the two-way ability of Blair. But he is a pass rushing presence off the edge, and due to the fact that he was unemployed until midway through the season, we’ll hopefully be able to re-sign him for cheap.

Restructured Jerick McKinnon’s contract

Like Blair’s contract, the details of McKinnon’s restructuring have yet to be publicly released. But it’s safe to say that he’ll be getting paid far less than his would-be cap hit of $8.6M and likely less than the $4.6M that they could have saved in cap space if they were simply to cut him. With the amount of money we’ve paid out to him and the fact that we stuck with him (and paid him) through last year when we really didn’t have to, I wouldn’t be shocked if he takes something closer to the veteran minimum. 

And while that may sound like an unreasonable loyalty discount, a running back who has missed both of the past two seasons to knee injuries is highly unlikely to net much more (if any more) than that on the free market. Besides, McKinnon should know that the best way to rejuvenate his career and his value is to play within Shanahan’s system in a running back-by-committee role where he doesn’t have to shoulder a huge amount of punishment.

While it would be unreasonable at this point to expect McKinnon to contribute given the past two years, if he can return to form, he is still the Niners’ best pass-catching back. So perhaps that long-awaited marriage of receiving ability and Shanahan’s scheming can finally come to fruition in 2020. And if not, at the very least this restructuring will save us more money than if we were to release him.

Bourne and Breida Given Second Round RFA Tenders

This afternoon, the Niners tendered both Kendrick Bourne and Matt Breida with the second-round RFA tender. That means both players will make $3.3M in 2020 unless another team offers them a better deal. Then, if we don’t match, that team would have to give us a second round pick. For either player, that seems highly unlikely, but especially for Breida, who was a total non-factor down the stretch last year. 

Perhaps this is a CJ Beathard-esque situation, where the Niners don’t want to give up a player who they consider to be an NFL caliber athlete for nothing. But with a tight salary cap, a crowded backfield, and Mostert (who himself is only counting $3.2M against the cap in 2020) as the clear bell cow, $3.3M is a lot to spend on someone who could be a fourth or even fifth back in 2020.

Maybe they’re trying to trade him? Perhaps to a team who has the cap space and is willing to give up a late round pick? I dunno, but tendering Breida seems a bit odd.

The Rest

• The Niners continue to work on a contract extension for George Kittle. That is likely their top priority at the moment.

• With contracts given out to Armstead and Ward, I don’t expect Emmanuel Sanders to get re-signed. The third and fourth round picks we gave up for a half year rental was a steep price, but given we never would have gotten to the Super Bowl without him (and that in said Super Bowl he ran a dirty route to free up from double coverage for a would-be game-winning touchdown), I still believe it was worth it. If he’s not signing here, root for him to get PAID, as a hefty contract — in conjunction with our likely lack of activity in free agency — should net us a third or fourth round compensatory pick in 2021. 

• I would still expect Marquise Goodwin to get moved one way or another. But with this draft class of wideouts and his underwhelming performance given his contract, the most likely scenario for that move is through biting the dead cap and cutting him.

• Tevin Coleman remains on the books for $4.9M, none of it guaranteed. He’s another name to watch, although the tenuous situation with Matt Breida means the Niners are likely in no hurry to make a decision on Coleman.

• So long Levine Toilolo, our jumbo blocking tight end who ran a pass route on only 33 of his 232 offensive snaps last year. He joins 2019 Niners’ draft pick Kaden Smith in New York. As evidenced by our reported interest in Austin Hooper this off-season, don’t be surprised if we sign another tight end to replace him.

• I’m not going to do a real free agency preview since we don’t have the cap space to make any big moves, but Taylor Gabriel is a potential name to watch. He had success with Shanahan in Atlanta, and could fill in slot snaps for Emmanuel Sanders as well as provide insurance in case Trent Taylor / Jalen Hurd continue to be hampered by injuries. 

Elsewhere

• The DeAndre Hopkins - David Johnson trade is the worst NFL trade in recent memory: David Johnson, and his albatross contract, was a clear candidate for a Brock Osweiler-esque salary dump (where you give up a player AND a pick so someone else can shoulder the cap burden) or — at best — a deal where you give up Johnson for a late round pick, with the agreement that the Cards are biting a large chunk of his salary. Instead, the Cardinals swap Johnson, a second rounder, and a future fourth rounder for Hopkins and a fourth rounder. Truly absurd. Bill O’Brien has absolutely no idea what he’s doing as a GM.

• Vikings double down: By giving a contract extension to Cousins and trading Stefon Diggs for a bevy of picks, the Vikings are clearly trying to make their roster a bit more balanced, likely using the picks and leftover cash from the Diggs trade to fill in holes like on their interior line or at cornerback. That being said, they’re also relying on Cousins to play like he did in the second half of the season (and not the playoffs lol), despite the loss of his most dynamic pass catching target and the offensive playcaller who settled Cousins in the first place. Sure, Gary Kubiak is a proven commodity and could maintain Cousins’ success, but the Vikings are still doubling down on Cousins. Which… yeah.

• Jaguars fire sale: Speaking of Brock Osweiler-esque salary dumps… does anyone want Nick Foles? Anyone at all? After getting injured then going 0-4 in four starts, the Jaguars are handing the keys over to resident deviant Gardnew Minshew and are now stuck with Foles on a $22M annual salary and an insane cap hit of $34M (!!!) if they were to cut him this off-season. And after getting rid of AJ Bouye for a fourth round pick, Calais Campbell for a fifth round pick, and Yannick Ngakoue currently asking for a trade, they may start 2020 with only three defensive starters from their 2018 AFC Championship game squad. As I’ve said before, the Jaguars are the blueprint for a talented team who simply cannot sustain winning because they lack the proper culture and management.

• Ravens continue to do what they always do: Getting Calais Campbell for a fifth round pick? Swapping a fourth round pick and their third tight end for a second and a fifth? This is a team that understands how to play the market and is constantly making proper value bets (except for that Joe Flacco contract lol)