Wild-Card Preview @ Dallas

Fancy seeing you here [Peter Read Miller / SI]

Opponent: Dallas Cowboys
Date: Sunday, 1/16
Location: that hideous dome thing in Texas
Kickoff: 1:30PM PT
TV: CBS, or wherever you stream it illegally
Line: DAL -3.0

Hello, old friend.

In a matchup that could garner better TV ratings in the Los Angeles area than the Rams home game, the Niners and Cowboys rekindle their long-time playoff rivalry in their first postseason matchup since the 1994 season—the third straight year the two met in the NFC Championship game and the prelude to the Niners’ last Super Bowl win.

In many ways, this Cowboys team should be a legitimate Super Bowl favorite. They lead the NFL in Total DVOA, are tops in the NFC in points differential, and have—by nearly all forms of measurement, advanced or otherwise—top 10 units on both offense and defense. But—fair or not—there are questions.

Some (many?) of those concerns revolve around the Cowboys’ reputation and recent playoff history. They haven’t advanced past the divisional round of the playoffs since 2Pac was alive (1995, their last Super Bowl season) and Jerry Jones is—you know—Jerry Jones, which many believe has contributed to some real butthole-clenched postseason flops throughout the years. 

But the other (likely more legitimate) questions revolve mostly around whether this is a team that’s a contender or a team that looks like a contender against lesser competition. The Cowboys are the champs of the much-maligned NFC East. While the division has improved since last season (mathematically it may not have been possible for them to get any worse) and sports two playoff entrants this year, the Cowboys got to beat the piss out of teams like the Racial Slurs and their backup quarterback and the New York Football Giants, which is basically a team of backups, twice a year. 

If you exclude a drubbing of the Eagles’ reserves last week, the Cowboys are 2-5 against playoff teams and 9-0 against everyone else. Granted, that stat is a bit misleading. Only two of those losses were by more than a single score—neither being blowouts—and the Boys lost two games in OT and another two by a combined five points. But it’s a stat that could be important nonetheless.

Realistically, the Cowboys probably lie somewhere in between their contender analytics and pretender meme status. Oftentimes, that kind of team—the one that just simply CAN’T breakthrough—is less a case of can’t and more a case of when. Perhaps it’s this year and the Cowboys finally make a run. Or perhaps our season of ups and downs through the NFC West gauntlet will have us battle-tested and ready for the upset.

Either way, this is a talented and dangerous Cowboys team and a matchup that—in some ways—is favorable, and—in others—potentially worrisome.

OFFENSE

No, you stop. No, YOU stop! [Matthew Emmons / USA Today]

33-year-old offensive coordinator Kellen Moore—who will likely be a head coach sooner rather than later—helms a Cowboys attack that leads the NFL in both offensive yards and points scored. Averaging over 400 yards of offense and 31.2 points per game, this Cowboys offense is unique in that its offensive identity is largely based on not having one.

The man with no name. In terms of personnel groupings, the Cowboys offense largely fits the mold of a typical modern NFL offense. They are a one-back team, with the majority—if not the entirety—of their two-back snaps coming on the goal line or when they want to get both of their talented tailbacks on the field at once. They’re primarily a three wideout squad but will run double tight as well. They lean more shotgun than under center. Nothing surprising there.

But while their personnel and general formation tendencies are expected, the Cowboys’ offensive scheme thrives in multiplicity and in doing a lot of things well. They’re largely middle-of-the-pack in terms of usage percentages for any kind of play subcategory—such as play-action passes, using motion, etc.—but their efficiency metrics are strong across the board, making them incredibly difficult to game plan against.

Whereas the Baltimore Ravens or a Sean McVay offense take the In-N-Out Burger approach—a limited menu done well—the Cowboys are like Cheesecake Factory. They throw an unbelievable amount of shit at you and hope that the sheer quantity of it all overwhelms you (and gives you diabetes).

For defensive game plans that are built around taking away an offense’s bread-and-butter and making them win a game by doing anything else, this can be a problem. By not knowing what the Cowboys want to do in any given week, there’s no real bread or butter to take away. It’s like a keto diet. And just like the keto diet, it kinda sucks to deal with.

Usually, this kitchen-sink approach to offense leads to rickety or inconsistent units. You do a lot of everything and end up doing nothing well. The reason that’s not the case with Dallas—aside from Moore’s experience and talent in building an offense this way—is that the Cowboys are loaded in every offensive position group.

Big Uglies, pretty blocks. Save for an injury-plagued 2020 season, the Cowboys have had a legitimate claim to having the best offensive line in football for much of the past half dozen years. 

Tyron Smith—of “my arms are so huge I wear knee braces as my elbow braces” fame—has probably been the best offensive tackle in football not named Trent Williams this year. According to PFF, he’s been graded out as a top ten tackle in 7 of his 11 professional seasons. Bookending the opposite side is La’el Collins, whose horrendous draft day luck led to an absolute heist of an UDFA acquisition by the Cowboys. He’s a stud in his own right.

On the interior, Zack Martin has been a mainstay at right guard since he was drafted. He’s been a PFF top 5 guard for each of his eight years in the league, with the #1 ranking during this 2021 season. Opposite him at left guard is Connor Williams, who is less top tier than the three guys just mentioned but still grades out in the top 10-ish range. 

Filling out the front five is second-year center Tyler Biadasz. He’s a major step down from former point man Travis Frederick—who retired last year after coming back for one more Pro Bowl season following a bout with Guillain-Barré syndrome—but when you’re surrounded by the talent the Cowboys have, you can afford an average center.

Undoubtedly, much of what Kellen Moore is able to call—and the multiplicity in which this offense operates—is due to the strength of this offensive line.

When he’s drafting from his coke yacht, you know he’s taking a wideout in the first. This wouldn’t be a Jerry Jones team if it didn’t have an excess of exciting skill players, and the Cowboys are talented and deep out wide.

The veteran presence in the wideout room is Amari Cooper, a talented route runner and after-the-catch threat, who—up until this season—was their No.1 option. He’s consistent but seldom spectacular, which is one of the reasons he’s been passed up by the rapidly-ascending second-year wideout CeeDee Lamb.

Lamb—who we’d contemplated drafting at 15 in the Javon Kinlaw/Brandon Aiyuk class—is a long, slippery, and acrobatic three-level threat who excels both after the catch and when adjusting to the ball in the air. He lines up in the slot for nearly half his snaps and is at his best picking through the open areas of zones. Expect to see him on digs and crossers if they can protect it. He’s also their primary target on vertical routes. 

Elsewhere, Michael Gallup was the Cowboys’ designated ''fuck it, go deep” guy until he went down for the year with a late-season torn ACL. Soaking up his snaps is Cedrick Wilson Jr., the son of former Niner wideout Cedrick Wilson Sr.—who had his best professional season in 2004 when he was second on our team in catches. Yes, we sucked ass that year, won two games, and would go on to draft Alex Smith shortly after.

At tight end, Dalton Schultz has taken a big step forward this season. He’s a very effective pass catcher but a solid blocker as well, and his emergence as an underneath safety blanket has really helped this offense’s consistency. When Schultz is getting his looks, this offense is usually humming, in part because of his reliability working the short middle of the field.

Two guys who are fantasy relevant. While the hiring of Moore in 2019 has been an unquestioned success, the balanced nature of his attack has led to a production drop-off from one of the Boys’ top weapons.

While Ezekiel Elliott led the NFL in rushing yards per game in each of his first three seasons in the league (101.2 yds/game on 4.7 ypc), his production has steadily declined as the Dallas offense has shifted away from being so run-centric (69.5 yds/game on 4.3 ypc).

In fact, for the third season in a row, third-year back Tony Pollard—who emerged more on the national scale with over 1,000 yards from scrimmage this year—has actually outdone Elliott in most averages and advanced efficiency metrics. Granted, Elliott gets a lot more defensive attention when he’s on the field, which opens things up for other players—Pollard included—but the shift to Moore has made the need to spend big on a single running back less of a financial priority than during the Jason Garrett years. 

That said, both backs are dangerous and utilized heavily in the passing game. They love to dump them the ball on shoot routes with natural picks/blockers downfield, motion them into empty for quick screens, or give them slip screens out of the backfield. They want to get these backs in space and for good reason.

Is Dak Dat Dude? Fair or not, most questions surrounding the Cowboys’ ceiling as a Super Bowl contender also involve Dak Prescott’s status as an elite quarterback. While many have come around to the idea that Dak is at least a Tier 2 signal-caller, he still has his doubters.

This year, many of those questions surround Dak’s mid-season calf injury. While it only kept him out of two games, he was noticeably off when he returned, and—although his play has clearly improved since then—the Cowboys passing attack hasn’t had the same punch in the latter half of the season. While Dallas may lead the league in offensive yards and points scored, they were 3rd in points from weeks 1 through 6 and only 13th in that mark from weeks 7 through 17. Similarly, Dak threw for 300+ yards three times in the first six weeks, but only twice in the last ten. While this is still an explosive offense and passing attack, that drop-off tracks with the Cowboys Offensive DVOA rating, which—at 9th, and a weighted 12th (before facing the Eagles’ backups)—is potent but doesn’t scream “best offense in the league” like its traditional counting stats might.

Additional questions surround the fact that Prescott can put up absolutely monstrous numbers, but the Cowboys as a team are typically better when he doesn’t. In games that Dak has attempted 40 or more passes this year, the Boys are 2-3. In games that he’s attempted 37 or fewer, they’re 7-0. Arbitrary numbers? You bet. But—just as the Niners are 7-0 this year when they log 30 team carries or more—that doesn’t mean they’re not relevant.

DEFENSIVE KEYS

I’m going with incomplete [George Rose / Getty Images]

Make them load up on carbs. As a team that can attack defenses in any number of ways, the Cowboys—and Dak—are at their best when they don’t have to attack a defense in one way repeatedly. Whereas a team like the Niners or the Ravens are happy pounding you on the ground with a diverse and effective run game that follows their offensive identity, the Cowboys strive for balance. When they’re forced out of that balance, they can struggle. I just mentioned the cherry-picked stat about the Cowboys’ record when Prescott attempts 40+ passes, but here’s another: when the Cowboys rush for less than 100 yards this year, they’re 1-5. That’s every single one of their losses.

While I believe Dak is a very good quarterback, the way to beat the Cowboys is still to force them to throw. That’s not just on the quarterback, but a potential inherent drawback of this kind of multiple offense. 

Save for a 73-yard fake punt against the Seahawks, the Niners haven’t allowed a team to surpass 90 rushing yards since week 9. Much of that credit is due to the play of Arik Armstead—who slid primarily inside about that same time—and DJ Jones—who’s having his best year as a pro, but improved play by Samson Ebukam on the edge, rotational snaps from Charles Omenihu, and Arden Key’s emergence as our svelte interior pass rusher have helped unlock a next level for our defensive line. Mo Hurst—who practiced in full for the first time all season—should also be back for this game. While injuries have limited him to only 41 snaps this season, if he’s actually healthy and in game shape, he could provide valuable spot snaps on the interior. 

Even though the Cowboys are no longer the run-first, run-heavy scheme of years past, forcing them into being one-dimensional is still one of the best ways to slow up their offense.

Turning greased-up pigs into bacon. The Cowboys are likely fine with being a high-volume passing attack if they’re breaking 6-8 yard gains off the wide array of quick screens and shoot routes that they use to get the ball quickly outside the hashes to their backs and wideouts.

We’ve had a few ugly showings when it comes to open-field tackling, with the game against Arizona’s backups being the most glaring example, and the Boys love to manufacture those “long handoff” type plays to the perimeter to test defenses early in games and get their offense in rhythm. 

Despite the Boys’ dominance upfront, every team will be looking to manufacture ways to slow up our pass rush, and one way is to get us running sideways enough to gas our D-line. If Dallas’ screen and quick perimeter game is humming, that softens the box for the run, and that lets them stay composed, on schedule, and—once again—balanced offensively. 

It’s not out of the question to think the Cowboys may come out with an initial game plan similar to the Cardinals’ in their second matchup against us: tons of quick perimeter passes paired with some power running inside. Thus, sound tackling will be key, especially early on as the Cowboys attempt to establish their identity. While Azeez Al-Shaair’s development and knack for the splash play has been welcome (and crucial) this year, Dre Greenlaw has been one of our soundest tacklers since he entered the league, and his return should help us track down plays on the perimeter.

If we can flow to the ball quickly and tackle well in space, we’ll take away a lot of the easy stuff that the Cowboys like to employ to steal yardage on early downs. If that happens, they’ll be forced to manufacture their offense through more difficult means.

[Another terrible food analogy]. Dak is a smart quarterback who excels at audibles and pre-snap adjustments, which makes him a really good fit for the variety of plays featured in Moore’s multiple offense. When he’s reading defenses well, Dak can chip away in the quick game, take deep shots down the sideline, and do basically everything in between. So why does Dak sometimes get knocked as a dude who seems “out of rhythm” in games?

If there’s an area where Dak struggles, it’s when his pre-snap read is off. That’s when you start seeing issues in the timing of Dak’s progressions and more scattershot decision-making. Often, you see these issues materialize on intermediate and deep throws across the middle. Dak’s never going to be the most accurate quarterback—with his misses typically sailing high—and—when a coverage dupes him pre-snap—he can be late to recognize and trigger on second and third reads between the hashes. Late throws high over the middle make for a sketchy combination and that’s led to the majority of his turnovers this year.

Dak’s completed 68.8% of his passes with 37 TDs-to-10 INTs on the year. On intermediate and deep passes in the middle zones, he’s completing 50% of his passes for 4 touchdowns and 8 picks. Over the last three seasons, 18 of Dak’s 25 interceptions have come on passes in the middle of the field. While most quarterbacks throw the majority of their interceptions across the middle—where there are more defenders lurking and less open space to work with—Dak’s numbers on second-and-third level inside passes are a legitimate trend. 

This is where the healthy return of Jaquiski Tartt—who has considerably more range than Hufanga (also injured)—and K’Waun Williams will be crucial. For the past few years, the 49ers have done a great job of hiding their coverages pre-snap, utilizing a number of different looks against trips formations, and regularly rotating their safeties after the snap. That skill set could be especially important in this matchup, as confusing Dak at the LOS may throw off his timing just enough to keep the Cowboys’ offense off-kilter, or—even better—lead to late/ill-advised throws over the middle that could swing the turnover battle in our favor.

If we can hide our coverages, rotate safeties post-snap, and make Dak a beat slow on his reads, that might be enough time for Nick Bosa and Co. to get home against the Cowboys’ stellar offensive line. While Dallas’ offense has underachieved in the second half of the year, this is still a unit with as much explosive potential as nearly anyone in football. It just hasn’t broken out yet. The best way to make sure that breakout doesn’t happen against us may reside in how well we hide what we’re doing on the backend.

Misc.

• The return of Emmanuel Moseley makes our defense a totally different unit, but hopefully, Ambry Thomas continues his slow (but consistent!) growth on the opposite side. Thomas went from “get burnt” (@ CIN) to “get burnt sometimes but get mossed” (v. ATL) to “usually in good position but sometimes getting mossed” (@ TEN) to “good position, nearly making plays on the ball” (v. HOU) to “game-winning interception to seal a playoff bid” (@ LAR). It would be ignorant to think this means he’s suddenly a lock-down corner, but I’m glad the coaching staff let him work through his issues during the season, as he’s bound to be heavily targeted in this matchup. If Thomas can hold up, we should be in good position.

• While the Cowboys have a great offensive line, we still need to find ways to get pressure on Prescott and flush him out to where he makes those late throws that get him into trouble. Look for Ryans to dial up some well-timed blitzes, mug looks to create one-on-one blocks off the snap, and inside twists in an attempt to isolate and confuse Biadasz in pass pro.

• Cedrick Wilson Jr. is 5-of-5 for 111 yards and a touchdown over the past two years. Just sayin… If you see him on a fly sweep or a deep outlet pass don’t assume it’s legit.

DEFENSE

A not-that-rare sight this year [Tom Pennington / Getty Images]

Familiarity runs deep on this side of the ball, as Shanahan takes on his old boss in Dan Quinn. The former Falcons head coach has rejuvenated his brand in a hurry, taking over a defensive unit that was absolutely horrid last year and building them into Football Outsiders’ #2 overall defense in terms of DVOA.

Since their last playoff appearance in 2018, the Cowboys defense had been sliding. The promising young linebacker duo of a rookie Leighton Vander Esch and a fully-rehabilitated Jaylon Smith never became the cornerstones of a defensive revolution—the latter finally getting cut mid-season after his play plummeted following his big-ticket contract extension in 2019. Things bottomed out last year with the hiring of Mike Nolan to run some kind of 3-4 hybrid-esque scheme—a pairing that barely lasted a single season and left the Cowboys in historically bad defensive company.

To be fair to the former Niners headman, the fit was poor from the jump. The Cowboys had basically been a 4-3 unit since Rob Ryan got the boot in 2012. A shift to a 3-4 base would have required years of personnel adjustments, and Dallas—as they are known to do—wanted results immediately. In the off-season they turned to Quinn, who brought them back to a 4-3 scheme with Seattle 3 roots. By simplifying assignments, putting players in the right positions, and coaxing the emergence of a few young superstar talents, the Cowboys’ defense is now a strength rather than a liability.

As one of—if not the singular—hottest names in the coaching carousel, this is likely a one-and-done season for Quinn in Dallas, with the Cowboys hoping the foundation he laid can be repeated in years to come. But, this is probably not the type of airtight defense you’re used to seeing top the ranks. There is variance in this Cowboys unit, and with that comes a potential weakness that can trickle down to everything else they do.

And by god we will do our best to exploit that.

Cavemen vs. the NEW iPhone 13 Pro Max with XDR Retina Display. The Cowboys defense is good. That is largely inarguable. But how you view them beyond that is in part based on your opinion of what makes a great defense in 2022.

By many traditional counting stats, the Cowboys aren’t particularly impressive. They’re 7th in points allowed (a highly respectable number) but an unimpressive 19th in yardage. Often times that difference is due to a stingy redzone defense—you know, the whole “bend don’t break” thing—but inside the twenty, the Cowboys rank only 21st. So what makes for the difference in the gap between the Boys’ yardage allowed and their points allowed? Just as importantly, why is this considered an elite defense?

Like an NBA team trying to only take shots at the rim or beyond the arc, the Cowboys excel at the two things advanced stats groups love: third down, where they are ranked second in the nation (34.08% conversion) and takeaways, where they are tops in the league (34). This makes up for their other, less impressive, counting stats, and makes them quite the advanced stats darling.

Many people believe that a modern-day defense is all about possessions, the thought process being that—due to the league’s heavy shift in favor of offenses—you can’t actually have a lockdown defense anymore. From this perspective, pass defense should be prioritized above all else, and physicality, yards allowed, and stopping the run are exponentially less important than increasing the likelihood of generating turnovers.

This isn’t to say that the Cowboys defense is undisciplined or wildly inconsistent, but their emphasis on hunting for “havoc plays”—sacks, tackles for loss, and takeaways—means they lean into variance in a way that elite defenses of the past have not. The Cowboys are near the top of the league in taking the ball away, getting off the field on money downs, pressure rate (5th), and have a #2 rank in pass DVOA. That means they’re an elite defense.

But there is another—more old-school—train of thought from a group that is less bearish on the idea of playing defense in the post-PI, post-roughing the passer world. While often disregarded as traditionalists who have yet to update to the times, these believers continue to stress physicality, stopping the run, and fundamental play over the higher variance, higher risk world of takeaway chasing.

It’s important to note that the two ways of thinking aren’t mutually exclusive. Offensive rule changes or not, it’s impossible to be an elite defense if you aren’t generating takeaways. Likewise, if you can’t tackle anyone or are always out of position you’re never going to cause turnovers. Typically, today’s best defenses fall somewhere in between these two belief systems. The Cowboys are just one of the first defenses to be considered elite that leans so heavily towards the new way of thinking. They want to generate pressure and create takeaways, and they don’t particularly care what happens other than that.

The three-layer cake method. As has become commonplace in a hard salary cap league with exorbitant quarterback contracts and a constant lean towards offense, the Cowboys’ defense is built off of a few studs at every level of play who help mask the presence of some of their less impressive teammates.

On the front line, we’re likely all familiar with Demarcus Lawrence, the Cowboys’ star defensive end. Despite missing the first 12 weeks of the season with a fractured foot, he hasn’t missed a beat upon his return. Through the season, the Cowboys have shown a willingness to blitz with regularity if the moment calls for it, but—since Lawrence has come back from injury—those blitz figures have dropped. They are still more than willing to send extra men, but the combination of Lawrence and fellow disruptive defensive end Randy Gregory has made it less necessary on a regular basis.

On the second level, linebacker Micah Parsons is a shoe-in for DROTY and an All-Pro selection in his first year in the league. Despite opting out of his last year of college, the 6’3” 246-pounder who runs a sub-4.4 forty has slid effortlessly into the Cowboys’ SAM linebacker position. His size/speed combo makes him an obvious sideline-to-sideline chase down threat, but where he really excels is as a pass rusher. Dan Quinn loves to slide him down as a stand-up edge—especially in their traditional 4-3 under fronts—as well as send him as a blitzer from the second level. That’s led to 13 sacks and 30 QB hits—an unreal number for a guy who spends the majority of his snaps as an off-ball linebacker. Even if the rest of the team isn’t blitzing much, they’ll be sending Parsons plenty, and whether he plays more snaps off-ball or as a stand-up end is largely dependent on the matchup. In the 16 games he played in this year, he totaled more snaps on the DL than at LB four times.

The Cowboys’ third big-ticket item is much more polarizing than the first two. While there’s little debate about the prowess of Lawrence and Parsons, cornerback Trevon Diggs is another story. If the Cowboys are a test of what makes an elite defense in 2022, Diggs is that question personified in a single player. Diggs has 11 picks this year, the most interceptions in a single season over the past 40(!) years. But while he led the league in picks, he also led all cornerbacks in penalties (somehow, even more than Josh Norman) and yardage allowed. By A LOT. He’s given up over 1,000 yards receiving this year, a feat that—per PFF—has only been reached by nine other cornerbacks over the past ten years. While some advanced ranking sites have Diggs as a top 5 corner based on his interceptions, PFF has him ranked 84th out of 120 cornerbacks. Among players who have played over 100 snaps at outside corner this year, Trevon Diggs ranks 98th out of 100 in yards per target, and when the ball does get completed, the average gain is a whopping 18.2 yards per reception.

Clearly, opposing teams have not been afraid to target Diggs in coverage despite his tremendous ball-hawking ability. When he isn’t taking the ball away, he’s regularly giving up big yardage, touchdowns, and first downs—whether from completions or penalties. Like Lawrence and Parsons, Diggs is a huge reason why the Cowboys are 11-5 and their defense is ranked as highly as it is, but if you needed a portrait of the variance that we’re talking about with this Cowboys defense, Diggs is a prime example.

That soft nougat interior. When you’re prioritizing the pass rush and generating takeaways on the backend, it’s natural that you’re going to have some weaknesses elsewhere. And usually, that weakness presents itself in the run game. The Cowboys are no different.

The Boys have allowed 100+ rushing yards in 11 of the past 12 straight games. To be clear, that’s not actually that crazy in 2022. They rank 17th in rushing yards allowed per game, 16th in DVOA against the run, and their yards per carry allowed (4.5) is about league average. By all accounts, they are just that—an average run defense.

Their guys on the interior are just guys, even if the scheme and rolling into 4-3 under fronts allows them to be hidden at times. Their corners are not particularly strong tacklers in the open field. There’s space to be had here, even if the defense has stood up well to the challenges they’ve faced. Speaking of said challenges…

That soft(er) offensive schedule. We’ve talked briefly about the Cowboys’ suspect slate of victories and the issues they’ve had in closing out some of the stronger teams on their schedule. But the most legitimate worry that comes from their strength of schedule (or lack thereof) is on the defensive side of the ball. Not because their defense hasn’t looked good in these matchups, but because they’ve faced so many horrendous offenses.

Below is a breakdown of every single offense the Cowboys have faced since the beginning of December (5 teams, 6 games). This includes the offense’s DVOA plus its starting QB, starting RB, and #1 receiver who played in that contest.

So… yeah.

The Cowboys have had their moments against strong offenses, generating four turnovers against the reigning champion Bucs (#1 DVOA) and holding the #4 DVOA Chargers to 17 points, but they did allow over 400 yards in both those games, and it’s safe to say they haven’t been tested in quite a while.

OFFENSIVE KEYS

you know it had to be this picture

Two Tickets to Pound Town. It should come as no surprise that we’ll want to pound the rock in a matchup against an elite unit with an average—and largely untested—run defense. While I wouldn’t expect anything like a “Raheem Mostert on god mode versus a bottom five rushing defense trotting out nickel personnel and six-man boxes in the 2019 NFC Championship Game”-level performance, we’ll need to run the ball effectively to win this game.

Give the Cowboys credit, they’ve stepped up before when they know the run’s coming their way—holding Dalvin Cook to 78 yards on the ground in their matchup against the Vikings—but Minnesota’s rushing attack wasn’t what it has been in previous years. Make no mistake, the Boys haven’t seen a ground game like ours.

Teams that are inconsistent against the run can rise to the occasion when they know it’s coming—especially if their plan is to fast flow hard against our stretch game and not get beat outside. But if we utilize misdirection and backfield cross-flow early, it becomes harder for defenses to keep up on just effort and hustle alone. That’s when you can find cracks in their run D.

While untested against the run, this defense is likely too good to just be bludgeoned to death (at least right out of the gate), which means misdirection in the run game and some key plays through the air may be key to unlocking the kind of ground-and-pound game that we’re looking for. I also have to imagine that Shanahan and Mike McDonald are scheming up as many ways as possible to make the Cowboys’ cornerbacks the unblocked man. Whether it’s unbalanced and closed formations or shifts and motions when we diagnose man coverage, there’s nothing our coaching staff would like more than to make Trevon Diggs spend the majority of this game filling in run support rather than covering down the field.

Beat man coverage on early downs. I have to assume Dan Quinn will take a page from Pete Carroll and the Seahawks and load up against the run with 4-3 under fronts, tons of single-high safeties, and seven-to-eight guys in the box on every down that isn’t third-and-long. That’s why—despite it likely leading to some frustrating “why didn’t we run it there?” situations—we’ll need to attempt (and complete) some passes on early downs to keep the running lanes open.

Despite coming from the Seattle 3 system, Quinn has actually employed a ton of man coverage in Dallas this season, good for third-most in the league. That’s a surprising development for a team whose star corner is clearly better in zone, but I think part of the reason why that strategy has been so successful is that loading the box and calling man 1 and man 1-robber on early downs allows a team that isn’t that great against the run to play above their means be just fitting lots of hats in gaps. It gives them numbers and keeps things simple, which—after their many issues against the run last year—is a great place to start.

I fully expect Quinn to start the game out with single-high loaded boxes and press coverage. Lockdown man with a loaded box, plus a pass rush that can abuse the right side of our line (to be fair, Compton has improved a decent amount in pass pro) has been our Achilles heel on offense. For all his incredible contributions as an offensive Swiss army knife, Deebo’s only real drawbacks have been the occasional drop and the fact that he is considerably less effective against man coverage than zone. Deebo is a slippery dude and incredibly tough to tackle, but he’s not the most electric route runner. Against zone coverage he does a nice job of finding the open lane and building up steam to abuse everyone in his path. Against man coverage, he’s less likely to generate that kind of space and momentum. While Deebo is sure to be involved in this matchup—be it as a receiver or as a runner (hopefully both)—Kittle and Aiyuk may need to step up as our man beaters.

Aiyuk was always drafted to be Deebo’s long and explosive counterpart—a more traditional wideout who could develop into a deep ball threat and run everything in the route tree against any coverage. This is as good a time as any for him to play that role. If we want to get our underneath chunk yardage game going, Aiyuk will need to win some battles against Diggs and fellow outside cornerback Anthony Brown—who is no slouch himself. Early separation against press will be key.

Kittle has been our man-killer all year, and we’ll need him to be that once again in this game. My guess is the Cowboys throw the kitchen sink at our All-Pro tight end, rotating a bunch of looks his way with safety/big nickel Jayron Kearse getting the first shot at locking him down. I personally think that slot and tight end defense is a weakness of this Cowboys defense and that they don’t have a particularly strong answer for Kittle. Kearse is a solid player, but slot corner Jourdan Lewis is just too small to cover Kittle and I wouldn’t trust any of their linebackers to be able to hang.

Shanahan will undoubtedly do his best to move Kittle around and get him matched up on as many linebackers as possible, but regardless of who gets the nod to cover him, Kittle needs to win when his number is called.

Stay on target… It may seem overly simplistic to say that avoiding negative plays and turnovers against a defense that is built on generating those very things is the best way to beat said defense, but… it is.

The Cowboys have forced two or more takeaways in all but five games. In games where they haven’t forced any takeaways, they’re 1-3. Conversely, we’re 5-0 in games where we don’t turn the ball over, 8-2 when we win or tie the turnover battle, and 1-5 when we lose the turnover battle. The Cowboys are an opportunistic defense that uses takeaways as their primary means of obtaining field position. The Niners are a run-heavy outfit that wants to play physical, complementary football. It is more likely than not that whoever wins the turnover battle in this game, wins the game itself.

Offensively, that means keeping on schedule in drives through incremental gains, minimizing losses, avoiding penalties, employing an efficient—even if not spectacular—passing game, and delivering a few well-timed play-action shots. And—of course—not turning the ball over.

Looking at you, Jimmy.

Misc.

• People seem optimistic that Trent Williams will play. Needless to say, having the best offensive tackle in the game—whose PFF rating of 98.3 is (I think) the highest PFF rating ever for any position over an entire season—against a pair of talented defensive ends would be critical.

• Trey Sermon was activated off IR on Tuesday, which was at least a little surprising. Elijah Mitchell was limited in practice this week, and there’s a chance the roster move was done in case Mitchell can’t go this weekend? But perhaps it was just to keep the running back room stocked in case we can make a run at things.

• Tom Compton is currently ranked as PFF’s #4(!) overall tackle, based largely on his impeccable run blocking. That’s pretty generous, but Compton has done a great job of filling the “Mike Person on roids” role for us this year. He’s even better than Person in the run game and—after improving throughout the season—less of a liability in pass protection.

BONUS CATEGORY: The Thumb. Mike McCarthy, head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, looks like a thumb. You know it’s true, and now you can’t unsee it.

CONCLUSION

long live the run game (in all its forms) [Getty Images]

If you don’t love the Cowboys, you probably hate the Cowboys. And if you’re twenty-five or younger, you probably don’t know why anyone ever cared about the Cowboys in the first place. But despite the internet’s penchant for meme-ing the Boys, this is a more dangerous and complete squad than Dallas has fielded in quite some time. They’re balanced, talented, piloted by two top-flight coordinators, and certainly hungry to make some noise in the postseason. Soft schedule or not, it would be unwise to underestimate a team that was a Week 17 loss to the Cardinals away from genuinely vying for the #1 seed in the NFC.

If there’s anything we know for certain about this year’s 49ers, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next. This isn’t the 2019 squad, which was a buzzsaw from the jump and was basically destined to win the NFC. Sometimes we come out slow, or shoot ourselves in the foot, or—in a few unfortunate cases—do both, but—to be perfectly clear—we have a very good football team. And we can hang with anyone when we’re on our game.

We are the NFL’s new (old) unicorn, a physical run game paired with a quick passing attack, and that’s a hard thing to prep for when no one else does it. If we can protect the ball, I think our grind-it-out style, punishing ground game, and successful maneuvering of countless “wtf” games this season make us a tough out for anyone and a particularly bad matchup for the Cowboys.

Go Niners 🏈👍