Sim To End
Well, that was fun. Except for all the parts that were absolutely miserable.
The loss to the Rams was perhaps a fitting end to this season, and–in many ways–this era. I don’t believe the “Last Dance” narrative, as that was always a lazy metaphor spoken by people who didn’t watch the doc and don’t watch the Niners. But there was always going to be some player movement after this season, and–based on how poorly things have gone–there might be more of it now than we would have expected a year ago. But don’t expect the Niners to be down for long.
Football is a sport of attrition, where injury luck and depth are paramount to success. The NFL is a sport of variance, where a single elimination tournament decides its champion every year. Because of all this, team-building in the NFL is much different than the feast or famine (sell or buy) dichotomy of the NBA. Contention is not binary. Super Bowl windows aren’t just wide open or shut and sealed. The teams that find themselves perennially in contention understand that. Because every one of the winningest teams of the past ten years has seen its schemes adapt and evolve, its assistants and coordinators move on, its All-Pro/HOF players retire, and–as shocking as it may sound–its starting quarterbacks change at least once. Because the beauty of the NFL is that if you play your cards right, any team can contend quickly. And if you build a winning culture and a sustainable roster, that contention window can be extended indefinitely.
So while the Niners may have an expensive roster, they also have the most cap space in the NFL. And while we may be one of the oldest teams in the league, the difference between the average age of our roster and the second-youngest is about a year and a half. This is not a rebuild. Nor are we tearing down everything but one wall for tax purposes. This can–and should–be a genuine re-tooling. Because even if we let every single one of our free agents walk in the off-season, we’d still have six players returning who were named to an All-Pro team in the past two years–with four of them 28 or younger–and a 24-year-old quarterback who was an MVP finalist a year ago. That is a foundation that is built to last. And while we’ll need to make the right moves to stay there, there’s no reason to believe we can’t get back to contention as soon as next year.
The most obvious comp to a successful (and reasonable) rebound year in 2025 would be this year’s Eagles, who–despite some very legitimate passing game issues (issues which could be season-ending if they get the wrong draw in the playoffs)–followed up a miserable 2023 with a genuine shot at the NFC’s top seed a year later. Now, there’s an argument that the Eagles’ superior depth–and their desperate need to switch out both coordinators–put them at a better chance for a quick turnaround, but–once again–note our All-Pros. The Niners have superior top-end talent, and–with an excellent rookie class and ten expected picks in the upcoming draft–an adrenaline shot of viable youth is very much in play.
All this to say, I don’t believe this off-season will (or should) result in the kind of massive roster turnover that many seem to be expecting. Deebo and Hargrave (and potentially Juice) could be veteran cuts. Aaron Banks and Ward will likely leave for healthy markets in free agency. We’d be smart to keep Huf if we can. Greenlaw’s the only dude I’d consider a mandatory re-sign. Hopefully, all our guys get paid well, regardless of where they wind up. And, of course, there’s Purdy’s incoming extension, which will mean we must cut spending elsewhere but not as severely as many people think. That will be the topic of my next write-up as I officially shift from this blog from this season to the next.
Come September, this roster will likely feature many of the same leading actors as before but its general make-up will look different. Frankly, there’s a sense of freedom to that. An excitement for what’s next. “Run it back” made sense for a while, and it’s a fun mantra when you’re holding championship parades. But it tires on you when you’re not. The silver lining of this bottom-out of a season is that it gives us a chance to finally reset things that aren’t working and push us to evolve our roster and scheme into our next contention era. So yes, the present is bleak, but the future remains quite bright.
Go Niners 🏈👍