NFC Playoff Preview

With a well-earned No.1 seed locked up, we now have the freedom to treat the next two weeks as byes. Shanahan has already said that they’ll be resting some guys against the Rams. Trent and CMC are the most obvious candidates, and—if there’s no Trent protecting his blindside—I would contemplate sitting Purdy as well. Regardless of how we approach it, NFL rosters are small so there will be plenty of starters suiting up. There’s a chance we practice the week with the ones to keep them sharp then roll out mostly twos. There’s a chance we treat this like a preseason game and play the majority of our starters for a few series before they give way to the backups.

Regardless of who plays, who doesn’t, and for how long, our goal in week 18 is to have a good week of practice leading up to the bye and exit the week healthy. As an added bonus, there’s not a single other team in the NFC that has the same luxury, as all will be vying for playoff entrance or seeding.

NFC

Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

With a win, the Cowboys will lock up the 2-seed and perhaps no team needs it more, as Dallas is 8-0 at home and 3-5 on the road. While that stat is skewed by the fact that they’ve played four of their top five opponents on the road, there’s no denying that this Dallas team—which relies so heavily on their explosive passing offense—prefers turf, domes, and nice weather. 

This is an offense that averages 37.4 points and 426 offensive yards per game at home—two figures that would easily be tops in the league if spread out across an entire season—and they’ve done so by unlocking Dak with the west coast offense. One fewer loss and Dak—who leads the league in passing TDs and is top five in every meaningful statistical category, from interception % to completion %—would likely be the front-runner for the MVP, and his emergence after an early season adjustment period means the Cowboys can put up points with anyone.

However, one of the main reasons Dallas struggles on the road is that their passing attack has to take on too much of their offensive burden. A year after running for nearly 2300 yards and 24 scores under Kellen Moore, the Cowboys have only scored 13 times on the ground and have yet to surpass 1800 yards rushing. Simply put, their rushing attack is a shell of what it once was, and that’s most evident on the road. In the six road games since the start of October, the Cowboys have only had a single 100-yard rushing performance, and that was when they narrowly eked out 107 yards against the NFL-worst Carolina Panthers. 

They say that defense and rushing attacks are the two things that travel in the NFL playoffs. Luckily for the Cowboys, they hold the tiebreak over both the Eagles and the Lions, so if they can win in Washington this weekend, they won’t have to do any traveling until—at earliest—the NFC Championship game.

Detroit Lions (11-5)

After the absolute shitshow that was the end to the Dallas game, the Lions need a win, a Dallas loss and an Eagles loss to secure the 2-seed. Any other outcome and they’re locked in as the 3-seed. But either way they’ve won their division and will host a playoff game in (at least) the first round, a feat that the franchise hasn’t achieved since 1993. That is absolutely insane. That fanbase promises to be rabid, and I fully expect Detroit to be an absolute nightmare for opposing teams to play in during the playoffs. 

The Lions have one of the best young play callers in the business in Ben Johnson and—when they can run the ball and protect Goff—they can score on anyone. They have a physical mindset in the trenches and—with their two-headed running back tandem—they’re fully capable of road grading teams. They’ve only failed to surpass 100 yards rushing twice this season—once in a game where they were torching the Bucs through the air and their starting RB went down in the first quarter, and again the week after when they got so far beyond the Ravens so quickly that they had to abandon the run game altogether. They’re not only committed and capable in the run game, but it’s where they hang their identity.  

When they choose to pass, Jared Goff is playing his best ball and Johnson does a great job of catering the offense to his strengths. But he’s still Goff. If you can get into his body, get him feeling pressure, and force him off his spot, he can turn over the ball in bunches. This Lions offense has five games of three or more turnovers. They’ve actually won two of those games, which is a testament to their offensive firepower and their ability to throw the ball down the field, but things can get loose in a hurry.

While Dan Campbell’s coaching style has led to an emphasis on running the ball and stopping the run, preventing rushing yardage is basically the only thing the Lions do all that well on defense. This is a bottom-ten unit in terms of points per game allowed and yards per play allowed and their takeaway numbers aren’t strong enough to offset those figures. Given the competition last week, they’re coming off one of their best defensive performances of the season, but this is a team whose defense has registered in the negatives in expected points added for eight consecutive weeks exiting their bye week. To be fair, this is far from a bottom-dwelling unit, it’s just not a strength. Its highs are solid and its lows are not great. I imagine they have another level of play that they can hit, but they might not have the talent to get there this year.

Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Despite losing four of their last five games—including at home to a then three-win Cardinals team who is fighting for a high draft pick—the Eagles still have a legitimate shot at the 2-seed. They just have to beat the Giants this week and have the Cowboys lose to the Commanders. I wouldn’t say it’s a likely scenario, but that’s the silver lining for an Eagles team who’d been skirting by their competition for most of the season before the wheels fell off over the past month. 

This is a team that is 8-3 in games decided by one score or less, which is a classic indicator of a team that isn’t as good as its record. While the Eagles could finish the season with the same record as us and may have the most talented roster in the league, the answers have not been there schematically after they basically tried to run it back with in-the-building promotions after losing both of their coordinators in the off-season.

Last year’s defense always felt like a mirage—buoyed by a dominant pass rush and a schedule that faced a never-ending slate of backups and below-average quarterbacks. But under Sean Desai and now Matt Patricia (lol), teams have exposed its back end and the Eagles have been getting carved up. If you include the 394 yards the Cowboys put up on them at home, this Philly defense has allowed 400+ yards on six separate occasions—including four times in its past six games—and now they no longer have their best cover man in Darius Slay. While Slay is expected to be back in time for the playoffs, there are clearly problems with this unit beyond the absence of just one man.

Offensively, the Eagles have had one of the more predictable and least creative attacks in the league. Granted, it’s still a top-ten unit. That’s what you get when the scheme was built specifically to your quarterback’s talents and you have one of the best offensive lines and set of skill players in the country. But Shane Steichen, the actual architect behind the scheme, is gone, and so too it seems is the core understanding of why the scheme was built the way it was and how to attack defenses as they adjust to it. So instead of seeing the Eagles’ offense grow and evolve in what would effectively be year two under this particular offense, the coaching staff has turtled further into its tendencies (shotgun, no motion, few personnel sets, etc) and is basically playing the tribute band version of the offense Steichen ran so well last year. This is an offense that always had things that it simply could not (or would not) do, but at least last year, the man pulling the strings knew that and called games accordingly. In 2023, those shortcomings are now just blindspots. 

This is still a team loaded with talent, and that shows in its individual highlights—be they on the defensive line, the offensive line, or in one-on-one matchups with their talented receiver corps. But they’ll need to right the ship in a hurry to be a genuine threat in the playoffs—especially if they can’t secure the 2-seed this weekend. They have the players to do so. Do they have the X’s and O’s? That remains to be seen. But their ability to hit big plays off impressive individual efforts is still around, and—as long as that remains—they’re a threat in a post-season shootout. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)

Ah yes, the NFC South. For a while, the Bucs looked like they were going to run away with the division (which isn’t saying much) and assert themselves as a tier 2 conference contender in the process, but their four-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in an embarrassing home loss to the Saints. Now they must win their final game in order to secure the NFC South title and host a first-round playoff game. Luckily for them, their last game is against… Carolina. 

The Bucs—like the Saints team they just lost to—are very much as their .500 record would indicate. Middle-of-the-pack. Their defense has shown flashes, with points allowed and takeaway figures hovering around the top ten, but they’ve also surrendered more passing yards than any team in the country. Their offense has been buoyed by some strong play (at times) from Baker Mayfield and Rachaad White, but they rank—at best—average in most offensive metrics and they have—by far—the worst yards per carry mark in the entire league.

Perhaps the Bucs know as well as everyone else how bad their division is and have simply been sleepwalking through it? There are glimpses of a team that is better than its current 8-8 record, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled off a home upset over whichever NFC East team lands the five seed—especially if its a stumbling Eagles squad—but it’s hard to imagine them making a deep run in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams (9-7)

I always felt like Sean McVay had the youth and the energy to be a good candidate for a rebuild, and that seems to be the case in a season in which the Rams started as a top-five pick contender but have now clinched a playoff spot a week out. Yes, it took some luck for the Giants to miss that last-second field goal, but this is a Rams team that is at worst a seven-seed and—with a win against our backups this weekend—would move into the sixth spot in the conference.

Embarrassing showing against the Giants notwithstanding, I actually think this Rams team is pretty good. They’re 6-1 in their last seven games, dropping 36 on the Browns’ vaunted defense before putting up 31 on the road in Baltimore the week after. Yes, shit got ugly when they were banged up in the middle of the season, and this team definitely lacks the depth to have much success if any of their stars go down again, but at full health I think the Rams have an argument for being a top four team in the conference. That makes them especially dangerous if they can pitch an upset in the first round and force a divisional round matchup against us. 

Tired of constantly being bullied in the trenches, McVay spent the off-season shifting Los Angeles’ offense away from the wide zone tendencies of the Shanahan scheme and more towards a power-gap scheme. It was a bit clunky to start, but the change proved fruitful when the Rams fully invested in bowling ball dual-threat Kyren Williams, who—despite missing four games due to injury—is second in the NFL in rushing yardage and first in yards/game.

In the passing game, the emergence of another young skill player in Puka Nacua has greatly opened up what the Rams can accomplish through the air. The presence of a genuine second option opposite Cooper Kupp has let the Rams mix and match with their slot receivers in a way that they hadn’t been able to do in the past, and Stafford—while still turnover-happy at times—has taken to the scheme change well in a rebound from his injury-plagued 2022.

Defensively, they still have Aaron Donald, but all-in-all I’d say they just get by on that side of the ball. However, their offense is a top ten-ish unit, and that—paired with a signal caller who can play elite at times, a physical downhill running game, and a smart play-caller who attacks defense’s weaknesses—will make them a difficult out. 

Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Similar to the Rams, the Packers have had a resurgent season now that they’re out from under the shadow of Aaron Rodgers. Make no mistake, if you’re an NFL head coach you’d rather have Rodgers than not, but it seemed like things in Green Bay had gotten to a point last season where—especially once they started losing—Rodgers’ happiness or lack thereof became a specter looming over the team. While the Packers didn’t get a crazy return in exchange for their future HOF quarterback, they now get to run the offense they want with young talent that can develop alongside Jordan Love.

Offensively, this is a squad with a lot of young skill players and tremendous potential. Love has been inconsistent and at times streaky in his first year as a starter, but he’s progressed tremendously as the season has gone on and shown more than enough upside to excite the fanbase. Entering the final week of the season, his 30 passing touchdowns are third-best in the league and his physical tools stick out often when you watch their games. Surrounding him are a bunch of B-level young targets with the potential to develop into much more, making them reminiscent of watching a young basketball team go through a rebuild. You know they have solid players on rookie contracts but you wonder how many of them will develop into legitimate stars. In the NBA, a roster full of B-level talent likely gets you a top three pick in the draft. But in the NFL—which is much less star-centric and which admits players at an older age—a bunch of B-level guys working together can get you to about where the Packers are now—a win away from one of the last spots in the playoffs.

This is at least a top 15 offense, and—when Aaron Jones and more of their receiving corps are healthy—they can look more like a top 10 unit, but the defense holds them back. Their raw numbers against the pass are decent, but they have one of the worst run defenses in the league, don’t take the ball away enough, and have had some truly ugly moments on tape. While the offense seems to be cresting at exactly the right time, the defense is less than a month away from getting diced up in the fourth quarter by Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito and two weeks removed from allowing 394 yards and 30 points to the Carolina Panthers—both season highs for a Panthers team that averages 269 yards and 14.75 points scored per game.

I like their talent and love the direction that the team is going, but they’ll likely need to win some shootouts and have some positive turnover luck in order to advance further than a first round upset this year. 

NFC South Randos - Atlanta Falcons/New Orleans Saints (8-8)

These guys get clumped together because I don’t really think either of them is any good. Both have their moments defensively—but not so much to put a scare into you—and are—for 75% of the time—completely unwatchable on the other side of the ball.

If there’s something the Falcons offense does well, it’s run the ball, as they’re top ten in attempts and yardage and have one of the more exciting young running backs in the league. If there’s something the Falcons offense doesn’t do well, it’s everything else. They’re best known for not scoring points (19 ppg), murdering fantasy teams with their player usage, and having a quarterback rotation so pathetic that their team has as many interceptions thrown as passing touchdowns on the year. Three weeks ago, they lost to the Carolina Panthers 7-9 in a vintage TNF debacle. 

Meanwhile, the Saints under long-time OC Pete Carmichael are one of the few teams still running Sean Payton’s Drew Brees scheme. The only problem? Drew Brees retired three years ago. Their offense involves a lot of stick routes and slants, and—when Derek Carr is playing well—it can be decently effective. But it lacks creativity, is a tough watch, and they haven’t really sniffed any offensive success except when they’ve played a team from either the NFC South or AFC South. 

These two teams play each other this week, and—if the Packers or Bucs lose—the winner will slide into the last playoff spot in the NFC. If that happens, I would expect them to go one and done. 

Go Niners 🏈👍