NFC Champ Preview @ Los Angeles Rams
Eyes on the prize [George Rose/Getty Images]
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Date: Sunday, 1/30
Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Kickoff: 3:30PT
TV: FOX, or wherever you stream it illegally
Line: Rams -3.5
You can almost see it already.
The slow-motion, sepia-toned photos of Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay as friends. As colleagues. As opponents during post-game handshakes. While they slowly zoom in on each frame, a Keith Jackson wannabe—or some celebrity you didn’t know gave a shit about football (and maybe doesn’t)—waxes poetic about friends turned foes. Of a Niners team looking to avenge a Super Bowl loss. Of a Rams team just as eager to re-write their own Super Bowl history and break an embarrassing streak in the process. There might be a comparison to similar coaching rivalries of yesteryear. Or perhaps even an allegory to something. Sound bites from Aaron Donald mix in with those of Kittle, bulletin board material, as FOX scores it all to something poppy and kind of cringe in a desperate attempt to appeal to the youths.
As has been the case all postseason, this is just the latest moment in a long and winding narrative. While an NFC Championship against Tom Brady would have made it back-to-back matchups against Bay Area-raised, first-ballot HOF quarterbacks looking for revenge against the childhood team that spurned them, our trilogy fight against the Rams seems born out of its own kind of destiny.
Two months ago we were sitting at 3-5 after an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals’ backups. The following week’s 31-10 trouncing of the Rams—then the Super Bowl favorite—became a turning point in our season. There we found our offensive identity—running 44 times for 156 yards—while our defense—spurred on by a players-only meeting led by our defensive captains—reached a new level of cohesion and consistency that is just now peaking.
Three weeks ago, we needed an 88-yard drive in less than a minute and a half to send the rubber match to overtime. Robbie Gould’s game-winning kick launched us into the playoffs, where his latest game-winning kick has us right back where we came from. Regardless of how you swing it, our season has hinged largely on matchups against the Rams, with the third dictating the second Super Bowl berth for either team in the past four years.
Given our first two wins against the Rams—and our six-in-a-row dating back to 2019—it’s a matchup we like. But it’s important to note that three of those wins were decided on game-winning field goals in overtime or as time expired. While we certainly know how to beat this team, the Rams are in the NFC Championship game for a reason, and it would be wise not to forget that.
OFFENSE
Scoring tugs and slapping fives [Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images]
Another week, another offense built from the same bones as ours. But to Sean McVay’s credit, while he learned under Shanahan, it was his stylistic and personnel changes that have trickled more to the head coaching ranks around the league. Matt LaFleur of the Packers was the offensive coordinator in McVay’s first year in Los Angeles. Zac Taylor of the Bengals was an assistant WR and then QB coach for the Rams from 2017-2018. Shane Waldron was the Rams’ passing game coordinator for three years before getting the bump to a play-caller in Seattle. While Shanahan has had Mike LaFleur follow Robert Saleh to New York, McVay’s version of this offense—particularly following their last Super Bowl run—has been considerably more in-vogue among team owners.
Personally, I’m perfectly fine with that because I prefer Shanahan’s approach to this offense. But there’s a reason why McVay disciples have been in high demand across the league. When the Rams are clicking, they can score bunches in a hurry.
Atkins Diet Swiss Army Knives. The biggest calling card of McVay’s version of this offense—and the style of the Los Angeles Rams specifically—is their steadfast commitment to 11 personnel. They trot out three wideouts, one back, and one tight end a whopping 84% of the time, which is BY FAR the most in the league. The mindset behind that approach is two-fold.
First, they follow the mentality that it’s better to do a few things really well than a lot of different things at a less efficient clip. In many ways, it’s a professional evolution of the "college spread” mindset. They focus on fewer concepts, but employ tons of formations, pre-snap motions, and other types of window dressing to get into said concepts.
Second, the Rams believe that if all their wideouts are versatile enough to line up everywhere and do everything, they’ll have an innate advantage in the passing game against bigger defensive groups and in the run game when defenses adjust personnel to match DBs on their wideouts.
In the simplest of terms, while we ask big bodies like Kittle and Juice to flex out and do receiver stuff from time to time, the Rams ask smaller guys to mix it up in the box and do tight-end stuff on occasion (they don’t have any fullbacks. Hence, no fullback duties). We’re both relying on versatile players in hybrid roles, we’re just coming at it from two different perspectives.
Hella tight. For those who ask their receivers to block heavily in the run game, tight alignments are nothing new. We use them plenty with our wideouts and there’s a reason that’s the most likely place for Kittle to line up when he’s not being used as an in-line tight end. But the Rams’ commitment to 11 personnel means they lean on tight alignments on more plays than not.
The tight alignments allow their wideouts to operate like tight ends in the run game, digging into the box as extra blockers and giving them the ability to motion quickly across the formation—whether for fly sweeps, shifting defensive run fits, or kick out blocks. In the passing game, tight alignments let them force mismatches with linebackers, who—against a traditional formation—would be covering tight ends and create natural leverage plays by creating more open grass down the field.
The Rams also love deploying their wideouts out of stack and bunch formations—largely to benefit the passing game. Stacks and bunches force defenses to communicate one more thing after every offensive snap, and the Rams have broken many a big play simply by wearing down defenses and attacking them when there’s a blown switch out of the bunch.
Against man coverage, bunches free up wideouts from press and sticky coverage by creating natural rub routes and allow the offense to force mismatches based on defensive rules (such as forcing a linebacker to cover Cooper Kupp). When defenses successfully switch on the bunch release, crossers and double moves and false stems can kill defenders that are already playing hard leverage to one side or another. Against zone, the Rams use bunches to pull defenders’ eyes, force constant communication, and target the open space that comes with two-receiver layered concepts and three-receiver triangle route combos.
Finally, tight alignments and stack and bunch formations make for easier access (and a higher likelihood of unguarded receivers) on deep crossers off of play-action, which—as we all know—is a major staple of the Shanahan/McVay offense as it complements outside zone action.
The Triple Crown (for humans). While an extra game certainly helped his efforts towards chasing a few longstanding single-season receiving records, Cooper Kupp has nonetheless had one of the most impressive wideout seasons in quite some time—becoming only the fourth player in the Super Bowl era to secure the coveted Triple Crown of receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. To put that in perspective of a 17-game season in 2022, here is his stat line.
145 receptions, 1,947 yards, 16 TDs
Kupp’s emergence has coincided with his healthiest season to date, and—in no small part—the team’s off-season acquisition of Matthew Stafford at quarterback. More physically talented and better off-script—and with valleys that don’t dip as low as the departed Jared Goff’s—Stafford started the season red hot and was an MVP front-runner a month into the season. While he cooled off since then and hit a rough patch of turnovers, he
While Stafford cooled down after a red-hot start that had him as an MVP front-runner a month into the season, he’s rounded back into form these playoffs, throwing for 568 yards, four scores, and zero picks over his first two post-season games. Of those totals, 246 yards and two tugs have gone to Kupp.
Unlike the All-Pro wideout we saw last week, Kupp gets his yardage mostly out of the slot, and about half of his targets are on short passes. That said, he’s efficient on all levels of the field—with 600+ yards at all three depths of the field—absolutely shreds man coverage, and is adept at getting open in the two-man games that the Rams like to employ underneath. But even when he doesn’t, Kupp’s gravitational pull opens up passing lanes for others.
On this play, the Rams are running a variation of a standard deep cross route combination, stretching the field horizontally with Cooper Kupp (teal) while creating a three-man triangle read with the hook and the post layering on top of them.
Despite showing two high, the Niners actually have a decent play call dialed up. They’re rotating down into Cover 3, with Jimmie Ward (red) stepping down into the middle of the field to wall off any crossers from the trips side.
As Kupp advances, Ward steps into his way, effectively taking away the crosser. But both Ward and Fred Warner—knowing how heavily involved Kupp is to this Rams offense—are eyeing the star receiver at his break point.
By the time Warner gets his eyes back to the field, he sees the hook forming in front of him and both he and the nickel corner take the bait.
With no inside help from the second level and the safety not jumping the route, the outside receiver is able to flatten out his post and secure the pass right in the hole of the defense—a hole created at least in part by the attention that Kupp gets on every play.
That’s a tiny glimpse into the impact Kupp can have on the passing game when he’s not even getting the ball.
Although he’s usually getting the ball.
A lot.
DEFENSIVE KEYS
Detroit PTSD? [Mark J. Terrill/AP Photo]
DeMeco Ryans has been on an absolute roll this post-season, stifling back-to-back top 10 offenses with game plans built off of stopping the run and confusing quarterbacks via pass rush and coverage disguises. This week we’ll need more of the same, as familiarity (and recency) mean execution—and a few well-timed play calls—could be the difference in a matchup where the X’s and O’s are otherwise familiar.
Weird shit incoming? At times McVay can get pass-happy, which can lead to explosive highs—like the offensive outbursts the Rams were riding to start the season—and valleys of inconsistency. Ultimately, when the Rams drift too far away from the run (not because teams are loading up to stop it but due to their own accord), they lose some semblance of their identity and can have stretches where the offense seems inefficient or rudderless. That leads to more of a burden on Stafford’s shoulders, more one-on-one match-ups in pass pro along their offensive line, sloppy play, and turnovers (Stafford led the league in interceptions with 17 this season). Sean McVay knows this and wants to stay balanced. Needless to stay, we want the opposite.
In our two matchups this season, the Rams have averaged 58 yards rushing on 3.1 yards per carry. McVay is a smart dude. He knows that has to change this time around, and he also knows that the fix isn’t as simple as “sticking to it.” Don’t be surprised if the Rams start the game with an offensive game plan hell-bent on slowing up our defensive flow and preventing our DL from teeing off. That could mean a bunch of bootlegs and screens—like the second 2019 game—in hopes of softening up our pursuit in the run game and getting Stafford in a rhythm. That could mean a few early handoffs on fly sweeps opposite run action so that we can’t pursue the front side of their zone/stretch runs so aggressively. It could be both. Whatever the game plan, I’d expect McVay to lean into lateral misdirection to try and gas our defensive line by making them run side-to-side and cut the overall aggressiveness of our defense.
Per usual this post-season, if we can stop the run (especially with a light box), we’re setting our defense up for success. As was the case with the Packers, this is an excellent offensive line as a collective unit—and one that’s ranked #1 in pass win rate—but isolated (and without a run game to lean on) they have weaknesses on the interior in pass protection. In week 18, we pressured Stafford on more than half of his pass attempts. In 37 dropbacks, the Rams’ starting guards allowed a combined 15 pressures, ten hurries, and 3 sacks. Those are matchups we like, so—per usual—mug looks, inside twists, and overloads on long downs and distances will be our friend.
The shell game continues. Part of the reason why Ryans has been shutting down offenses in the back half of this season is that he’s been able to put himself in the heads of opposing play-callers. Against the Rams in week 18, he knew McVay wanted to establish the run and work off of that, so we slammed one-high looks on first downs when we expected the run. When the Niners climbed back to within one score off a 17-0 deficit, Ryans knew McVay would try to stabilize in the run game, so he dialed up first- and second-down one high looks the following drive to force a punt. Finally, after he knew the Rams would try to open up things to create spark, we came out—for the first time all game—with two-high on first and long to combat that.
Obviously, passing success is much more complicated than one-high or two-high safeties, but—in general—Ryans has been able to get into the mindset of opposing play-callers and that’s affected what his back seven shows, when, and whether or not our secondary rotates into another coverage post-snap. This is particularly important against someone like Matthew Stafford, who is as deadly as anyone when he knows your coverage. And in particular, when he knows you’re in a one-high look.
On the season, Stafford is #1 in the NFL in EPA when throwing against man coverage. He’s also #1 in the NFL in EPA when throwing against single-high coverages. In short, when he’s protected, he can put the ball anywhere on the field with the best of them. So if he knows you’re in 1 or 3 before the snap, he’s typically going to have success. But while he can also have success against two-high coverages, Stafford—and McVay—inherently want to throw the shot play. They want a big play that breaks open the game and they can get impatient when that doesn’t materialize. Against two-high, those plays can be a bit harder to come by, and when you can disguise the coverage well enough, Stafford’s impatience sometimes leads to him being late (and reckless) at getting to his check down.
Here, the Rams have dialed up what they believe to be a two-high beater. They’re running a hard play action bootleg with the full intention of splitting the safeties with the post, and—if the far safety rotates over—showcasing Stafford’s arm strength by hitting the post curl underneath him off the bootleg away.
Unfortunately for the Rams, the Niners have once again shown two-high before rotating into cover 3. By the time they snap the ball, Ward has snuck into the box and is ready to play the run.
Despite initially biting on the run, the second-level defenders drop quickly into their zones and find their marks. At this point, the play is already busted. The safety rolled into a single high and is cutting off the post. While the linebacker has gotten great depth on his drop and is directly cutting off the throwing lane of the post-curl.
This is 100% a play where you turf it or—because Dennard continued to bail out wide—run for a few yards and call it a day. However, Stafford spots the one “open” man (teal) all the way across the field for a would-be zero-yard gain.
Stafford rips it across the field but it winds up a bounce pass behind the receiver. Which is probably lucky, because an accurate pass in this situation could have easily been completed to Jimmie Ward and taken the opposite way.
The Rams are a team that wants to take the top off, so if Ryans can get a beat on when the Rams are feeling more conservative vs more aggressive (or better yet, stop the run with a light box), we’ll always have the flexibility to show two-high and rotate to a one-high look (like above) or vice versa.
Two guys, one Kupp. Just like with Davante Adams, we need a plan on how to slow down Cooper Kupp, but it’s a different challenge than last week because of where he lines up and how the Rams use him.
Since the Packers relied so heavily on “alert” plays to Adams when they would isolate him out wide, we could effectively force their hand in regards to whether they were throwing his way or not based on the pre-snap look we’d give them. So when they chose to line up in a formation that would isolate Davante and spring a matchup problem on our end, we’d often give them a bad pre-snap look and force them away from their #1 wideout. The Rams don’t employ anywhere near the number of isolation “matchup hunting” looks that the Packers do, instead relying on their receivers to get open within the greater structure of the play.
Since they’re not just looking for a slant or a fade, it’s harder to just erase Kupp from a play presnap. And even if you do, the Rams’ supporting receivers are head-and-shoulders above the Packers’. A rejuvenated OBJ is their number two—and the guy they love to target when Kupp draws safety help and double coverage—Van Jefferson is a talented overall third option, and Higbee is basically a jumbo wideout. All three supporting receivers are better than their Green Bay counterparts were last week.
Second, since Kupp plays largely out of the slot, if you bracket him with double coverage it’s easier for the Rams to use him as a decoy to open up space for someone else. Whereas the Packers would often isolate Adams away from other wideouts, giving them a numbers advantage but on the opposite side of the field, the Rams often keep Kupp working alongside other wideouts, so the actualization of a double team happens within the quarterback’s field of vision and—naturally—opens space up for another receiver. We already saw how too much attention to Kupp can open things up for other receivers. When doubled, that impact is only amplified.
The hope is that having K’Waun healthy this time rather than Dontae Johnson in the slot and—once Tartt got hurt—Darqueze Dennard(!) in the slot and Johnson at SS—will allow us to survive a bit better when we’re not sending extra help Kupp’s way. Will we still double Kupp in this game? Absolutely. Especially when we’re blitzing and/or forced to go into man coverage and/or on money downs. Stafford wasn’t only #1 in EPA against man coverage but #1 in EPA against the blitz, dicing us in the few snaps where we sent extra men against him, so it’s unlikely that blitzing is a heavy part of our gameplan. But you can’t go an entire game without any blitzing or any man coverage, and—when blitzed—Stafford has targeted Kupp on upwards of 40% of his passes.
If we’re already sending extra guys to get Stafford off his spot, springing a few sneaky double teams while we do it is likely part of the game plan. But just like against the Packers, we need to pick and choose when to double, when to show double, and when to bait a trap to generate a possible turnover.
DEFENSE
Intimidating entrance or crowded club on the west side? You decide
While there’s plenty of familiarity with the Rams’ offense, there’s just as much on this side of the ball, where Raheem Morris—a long-time friend and colleague of Shanahan (and a rumored DC candidate for us when Saleh was hired away)—mans the defense. Typically happy to sit back in a four-man front and two-deep shell, the Rams like to dare teams to run on their light box—a box that still employs the otherworldly Aaron Donald—and force opponents to slowly drive the length of the field and score.
That is until they played us. Running the ball and bleeding clock with double-digit play drives is kind of our thing, and that’s exactly what we did in our week 10 matchup when Jimmy completed over 75% of his less than 20 pass attempts and we bled them out on the ground. So by the week 18 rematch, the early-down fronts that the Rams were showing had changed.
To something different, but all-too familiar.
I Got Five On It. In our last trip to LA, the Rams trotted out a bunch of five-man fronts with two stand-up ends out wide, hoping to cover up every gap, minimize double teams with outside eye alignments, and prevent the OL from getting to the second-level so that their linebackers could fast flow to ball. Simplified, this was the Rams’ version of the defensive scheme that Vic Fangio (and then Bill Belichick) used so successfully against them during their 2018 Super Bowl season.
And if that front sounds familiar…
It’s cause we literally saw the same thing last weekend.
While the gap assignments and D-line alignments will vary from snap-to-snap, we’re likely going to see a whole lot of what we saw last week. Five-man fronts with single-high safeties on early downs (and any downs where they’re expecting run), giving way to four-man fronts with more linebackers/nickels on the second level and two-high safeties on passing downs.
Both the Packers last week and the Rams in week 18 found early success slowing down our running game using this front, but both times we were able to find seams in the second half. Considering how the Packers just held us without an offensive touchdown using this plan a week ago, I’d expect Morris to show us these same five-man (or six-man, depending on personnel and how many gaps we’re throwing out there) fronts on early downs.
We’ll have to attack the front more successfully than we did last week.
At least we’ll always have that hilarious GQ interview. Despite massive whiffs on half of their big contracts, the Rams still have elite high-end talent on their roster, and they get the most out of their blue-chippers by deploying them all over the field.
Aaron Donald is unquestionably the best defensive tackle in football—and arguably still the best overall player in the NFL. He is basically a machine made for leverage and explosive burst, and their ability to put him wherever they want along the DL is a genuine reason why they run the scheme that they do. They’ll matchup hunt with him along the line and pair him with either of their edge rushers on twists and two-man games on passing downs.
In the secondary, Jalen Ramsey—who should be required to play against Golden Tate twice a year—is likely the best cornerback in football. The Rams will flip him outside or in the nickel (aka, their “star” position) depending on offensive personnel, and he’s one of the rare corners who is big enough, fast enough, and good enough to truly excel at either position.
To the Rams’ credit, they’ve been able to surround those blue-chippers with excellent complementary players, acquiring low-cost veterans and draft day finds despite being cash-strapped and never having a first-round pick. But—since the NFL is a hard salary cap league and something has to give somewhere—they do adhere to the popular analytics trend on where to cut costs on defense: linebackers.
Their off-the-ball linebackers are clearly the weakness of this defense, and part of the Rams’ defensive scheme involves protecting these linebackers from what they do poorly while freeing them up to do what they do well. Both are plus pass-rushers and willing run defenders (even if their metrics in that department aren’t super impressive). In essence, they have two two-down linebackers manning the middle. Which is something we’ll rotate back to later.
Don’t let them do as we do unto others. While Aaron Donald is the frontman—and rightfully so—the Rams’ front four is as dangerous (and deep) as any in football. After returning to health mid-season, Von Miller is back to torturing offensive tackles, registering 7 sacks in the past six games (including the post-season). People forgot about him because of the general irrelevance of the Broncos and the fact that he missed all of the 2020 season due to injury, but Miller has rebounded with the Rams to grade out on PFF as a top 5 edge rusher. Opposite him is Leonard Floyd—a bargain acquisition from two years ago now playing on a big-ticket contract. His 9.5 sacks and 18 QB hits are second on the team only to Donald. Behind them, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo has slid into Samson Ebukam’s old off-the-bench pass rusher role and has largely excelled.
Unsurprisingly, the strength of this defensive line—which is rated #1 in pass rush win rate—and the pass rush ability of the Rams linebackers means the health of Trent Williams looms large. The Rams just decimated the Bucs up front—largely by putting Aaron Donald at left end opposite their replacement right tackle—and we struggled at times keeping Jimmy G upright against the Packers. That was WITH our All-Pro left tackle. While our game plan will certainly call for avoiding long downs and distances, we’ll need to drop back and pass at some point. When we do, we’d feel a lot better having Williams guarding Jimmy G’s blind spot versus Colton McKivitz—who allowed 4 pressures and 2 sacks in his spot start in week 18.
OFFENSIVE KEYS
The most beautiful sight in football [Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images]
Counter the counter before they can counter it (potentially with counters). Against the Rams in the season finale, one of the ways we attacked their five- and six-man fronts was by just getting into gigantic personnel sets and pounding face. We spent parts of the third quarter—including plays leading up to and following Deebo’s marvelous WR-RB-jump pass touchdown—in 22 personnel (two backs, two tight-ends) and just mashing for small-to-medium gains on the ground. This was great for team psyche and clearly led to some success (and gets the fanbase going), but it’s better as a mix-up than as the engine that keeps our run game going.
While sprinkling in some 22 personnel certainly makes sense in a game where we want to force the issue on the ground, where we really started to find a groove in the running game was when we started cranking up the diversity of formations and pre-snap looks and using all that glorious Shanahan window dressing to get into the counterpunches to our bread-and-butter outside zone.
Whether it’s split zone handoffs, cutback tosses off of split zone action, or Shanahan-style counter runs where Juice/Kittle/Wilson bend back against the grain to replace the pulling linemen of a traditional counter play, these mix-ups all utilize pre-snap motion and lots of misdirection to pull the eyes of the second-level defenders and prevent them from filling confidently and aggressively at the point of attack.
Once we found success with our interior misdirection runs, the Rams could no longer key so heavily on our core toss and stretch plays, which then opened up what we wanted to do in the first place. Run our core toss and stretch plays. Basically, we used inside-hitting misdirection runs to open up our staple outside runs.
It’s always tough to tell when to start off with your bread-and-butter and when to lead with the counter punch to open it up. If you get to the counter too early, it’s naturally not effective and you end up overthinking yourself into second- and third-and-long. But because this is a three-match and the Rams’ defense is so well-prepared for what we do best, it could make sense to hit them inside with the confusing stuff before we get to our stretch game.
So you wanna play defensive back… Theoretically, every run play is meant to either have a pure numbers advantage or force a safety or cornerback to be the fill defender. The Niners just do a better job than anyone else of making sure your DBs have to play the run.
This is a standard stretch play out of 11 personnel with Troy Reeder (teal) as the second-level defender at the point of attack. While we don’t hate running stretch against this front because of numbers being even, we decide to motion to shift the matchups along the OL.
Sherfield goes in motion opposite the run action. The Rams are probably less afraid of a Sherfield fly sweep and more so of our 220-pound special teams gunner running a kickout block on the backside end like Jeff Wilson often does when Deebo is in the backfield. Nonetheless, they need to shift their gap assignments to the defensive right in order to account for the added “box” player. This shifts Reeder further inside and Ramsey—who was lining up in the nickel—now enters the box as the second-level player at the point of attack.
While the offensive line’s rules haven’t changed, their assignments have, with Brunskill no longer taking on the bigger Troy Reeder. Now he has Ramsey.
Don’t take it personally, bro. It’s just physics.
The result is a seemingly innocuous five-yard gain, but it’s a body blow both to the defense and (literally) the DB tasked with filling against the run. While the DBs have to worry about the physical toll they’re taking from getting beat up in a phone booth by someone ten weight classes their superior, their involvement in the run game also starts to chip away at them mentally. After all, defensive backs are still your best (and last) line of defense in the passing game. And when they start playing the run too heavily, that can lead to problems.
While the most obvious example of this was the Deebo jump pass over Jalen Ramsey after ten straight runs, here’s another play that shows how forcing corners to regularly act as primary run defenders can spring dudes open.
This is an under center, hard play-action, max protect play with only two wideouts as options. Deebo and Aiyuk are basically just going to sell their releases like they’re blocking, get to their depths and find space behind the second level of the defense. The Niners actually shifted Juice to the position where he starts in this frame and will send Kittle in motion the other way, which is key because this changes the defense’s run responsibilities.
Since the defense is already in a one-high look, they can’t exactly roll down a safety into the box to the side of the motion. Nor do they want to overcompensate at the linebacker level with Juice on the opposite side of the formation. That’s asking to get gashed the other way.
That means the cornerback at the top of the screen could very well be the unblocked player tasked with filling against the run. So as he sees Kittle motion across, this is what’s going through his head:
The corner is expecting a simple power look, with Kittle kicking out the end, Aiyuk releasing inside and crack blocking on the second level, a double team at the point of attack on Donald, and Mack getting a good angle on the trailing linebacker. With the safety way-way deep, the corner knows that he’s really the only guy who is gonna have a chance to fill against this type of run his way.
Worth noting: this is one of those benefits of tight splits that we talked about earlier. Not only does Aiyuk’s split make it much more viable for him to crack block to the second level and force this cornerback to think run, but it also opens up space for the eventual play-action pass.
On the snap, everything looks exactly like the cornerback had feared. Kittle is kicking out the end, Aiyuk has released inside as if to block the second level, and there is a deep hand-off, downhill play-action look coming straight at him.
Unfortunately for him, he took the bait, and Aiyuk—who is so often the man who the Niners spring open in their hard play-action looks—is wide open for a massive gain. Also of note: Deebo has basically drawn triple coverage on his side because (a) he’s Deebo, (b) his slightly wider split and the rolled down safety to his side allows his cornerback to play off and see the play develop, and (c) Kittle’s motion away gives the defense numbers to Deebo’s side if Juice doesn’t release.
In the video you can see, the corner to the play side (who is a very solid player) basically goes back and forth between run and pass multiple times in his head before finally getting beat over the top
This is a great example of how the constant shifts, motions, formations, and battering of defensive backs in the run game can spring open receivers off of play-action, and how Shanahan’s mastery of the details is such a difference-maker in scheming up these plays.
When the run game can get going, these kinds of opportunities open up down the field.
Jimmy “Goddammit, You Get in Rhythm” Garoppolo. Lost in all the talk of bully-ball and pounding the rock is the fact that—in each of our recent wins against the Rams—the run game hasn’t been dominant with explosive runs and big plays. It’s been incessant and draining with an array of short-to-medium yardage body blows. That’s fine (and is mentally exactly what we’re looking for), but that sort of gameplan requires Jimmy to be on point.
If our misdirection runs can open up our outside running game, so too can our intermediate passing game. The Packers defense played a great game last week, but drops by Brandon Aiyuk and a would-be touchdown to Kittle kept our offense off the field for the majority of the first half. We knew entering that matchup we had to complete some short passes underneath early in order to get them off the run. We didn’t and that led to zero offensive touchdowns.
In our first matchup against the Rams, Jimmy was 15-of-19 for 182 yards and 2 scores. In the rubber match, he threw two ugly picks but was also 23-of-32 for 316 and the game-tying touchdown. As much as we’ve liked this matchup over the years, we can only succeed if Jimmy is efficient, and that is doubly important with the Rams likely selling out to stop the run.
When they’re loading the line of scrimmage, there will inherently be room to throw the ball in the short-to-intermediate game. When they back off into more 4-2 looks, space will open up on those digs that we layer over shorter underneath routes and in passes out of the backfield opposite that two-man action. They want their linebackers to be playing aggressively and instinctively downhill. Making them work in coverage—in particular, Troy Reeder, who has always been more of a pass rusher from the second-level—can not only give us advantageous matchups but slow their ability to key hard on the run.
Jimmy needs to hit those underneath passes to open up the rest of our offense, and—when he sees someone open but lacks the arm strength and or space to get them the ball (like the first pick against the Rams in week 18 and the redzone pick last week)—he needs to throw it away and keep us from losing yardage or possession.
Game flow and staying on schedule are ALWAYS important for a team that’s built like us, but it’s especially important against a squad that has the top-rated pass rush in the country. Staying on schedule means Jimmy playing smart, efficient football and keeping long drives alive.
CONCLUSION
Have more of these than the other guys [Kyle Terada / USA Today]
It’s important to note that all streaks end. The Rams will (eventually) beat us again. They’re too talented and too well-coached not to. But much like the general stereotype comparing Los Angeles and San Francisco, I think the Rams’ offensive scheme is sexier but the Niners’ is smarter. While that opinion on offensive theory makes me bullish on the Niners as a franchise and our trajectory schematically, in order for it to actualize into a second Super Bowl berth in the past three years, Jimmy needs to bring it in a way that he hasn’t quite shown since his game-tying drive against the Rams to cap the regular season.
Eager to wash away their own Super Bowl shortcomings and their recent record against us, the Rams are sure to fire out of the gate swinging. If we can match their intensity and execution—and not spot them another 17-0 lead—we’ll be in great shape to book return flights to Los Angeles two weeks from now.
Go Niners 🏈👍