Mid-Summer Questions

A lot of this last year [Niners Wire]

With NFL football still theoretically a thing and the Niners expected to report to the facility on July 26th, here are a few lingering questions before training camp begins.

Where’s Kittle’s extension and should we be scared yet?

The hang-up in getting Kittle signed to a long-term deal is likely due to a number of factors, most of which we’ve already discussed. 

Nothing has changed in terms of the poorly paid tight end market, whose highest-paid player makes $10.6M and whose franchise tender value—since its calculated by the average of the top five salaries in regards to cap percentage—is currently $10.5M. This gives the Niners leverage because they can lock in Kittle for 2020 and—if using the franchise tag—for 2021 at a grand total of about $13M. It also presents a starting point for contract negotiations. Since the tight end market is so low, even a second consecutive franchise tag—which would likely mean a 20% increase of the previous tag’s rate—would put the Niners out something like $26M over three years. And while there’s no way the Niners are pitching a $8.3M/year contract to Kittle, you can understand why they’d be hesitant to blow all other deals out of the water considering the power they hold.

On Kittle’s side, his agent wants a “Kittle deal, not a tight end deal,” which is totally fair given Kittle is definitely the best tight end in the league and his role on the Niners makes him vitally important given his skill set. There is not a single tight end in the league who could replicate Kittle’s receiving and blocking impact, and there’s an argument that there isn’t one who could replicate either given how well he fits into our scheme and what he brings to the table.

Add in the fact that sweet sweet coronavirus continues to rage on and that there’s been no concrete solution as to what the NFL plans to do to offset losses in revenue in regards to future salary cap figures, and it’s easy to see the impasse.

Am I worried about Kittle being traded for picks? Absolutely not. But I will be worried if the Niners don’t iron out a deal before the season starts. While the franchise tender may give a team control, it has burned many a bridge and usually leads to either a messy divorce or an absolutely gigantic long-term salary. Considering Kittle has been a top performer for multiple years on a fifth-round draft pick salary, he needs to get paid, and doing so this off-season would be cheaper, easier, and better than doing it later down the road.

Some expect the deal to wind up at a team-friendly $13M/year. If so, that would be a major win for the Niners.

Should we trade for Jamal Adams?

No. 

He’s both a great player and the guy we realistically should have drafted instead of Solomon Thomas back in 2017 (Pat Mahomes clearly being the player we unrealistically should have drafted), but—in terms of salary and capital lost to acquire him—we can’t afford it.

Since Adams is entering the fourth year of his rookie contract, any trade that includes Jaquiski Tartt (which I would assume would have to be the case), would actually help our cap situation for 2020 but would kill our books long-term. Adams is demanding a trade because (a) he plays for the Jets, (b) he wants to get paid as one of the top safeties in the NFL, and (c) he plays for the Jets. The five highest-paid safeties in the league average just over $14M/year. Jimmie Ward, who—despite the increased interchangeability of our safeties last year and a greater shift towards quarters coverage—plays the deep middle and is thus the more important safety for our scheme, is making $9.5M/year. There’s just no way to make the math work, especially for a scheme that ultimately wants to save money on the strong safety position.

Additionally, the amount of draft capital we’d have to give up would be untenable, especially considering how many picks we’ve lost in the past season. The Jets’ starting price is a first round pick, but—while Adams can be worth that for a team that asks for a more versatile chess piece and playmaker from the SS position—given our cap situation, scheme, and the fact that Adams has already used three years of his rookie discount years and would want an extension after this year at the latest, it’s an unfortunate no from me.

Please, for the love of god, no more trading picks. 

What will/should happen with Raheem Mostert’s contract?

I’d off-hand mentioned earlier this year how Mostert’s deal now looked like a brilliant move for the Niners since he was one of the top backs in the league last year and is making approximately $3M/year over the next two years. Well... apparently Mostert’s agent realized that as well, and—after an undetermined length of behind the scenes negotiations—went to Twitter to request a trade last week.

From the Niners’ perspective, Shanahan’s system has been churning out runners for literally decades, they run a backfield-by-committee approach, and they don’t want to set the precedent of renegotiating contracts that were just signed one year ago. They also see a 2020 salary cap that needs to juggle possible extensions to Kittle and Kendrick Bourne and a 2021 off-season that will feature a ton of key free agents and a very cloudy salary cap situation.

From Mostert’s perspective, he has clearly outplayed his contract, wants to finally get paid after a journeyman special teams career, wants more guaranteed money, and—if rumors are true—legitimately only wants to be paid like the rest of the 49ers backs (aka Tevin Coleman). That would mean a bump in $2M or less, which seems deserved.

Bridging that $2M gap seems doable, although it is annoying that it has gotten to this point for so many reasons. First off, while Shanahan’s system can create backfield production, Mostert is the prototypical ideal for it as a runner, and—while 28–he has very little tread on his legs and could theoretically age well. Mostert is a guy we should want to keep, and I think it would be presumptuous to think we can replace his production with a full platoon when he so clearly outperformed that platoon last year. Secondly, much has been made about Tevin Coleman’s lack of guarantees on the remaining $4.55M of his contract and how he could have been (or could still be) cut to save money. But since we’re so late in the process, that is no longer entirely the case. $2M of Coleman’s deal became guaranteed in the spring, and while cutting him would free up $2.55M to potentially send Mostert’s way, there is no outcome that involves moving Coleman where we’re not left disappointed that—if he was gonna get moved anyways—it wasn’t done sooner.

Obviously, this is a case where Mostert has zero leverage, but whereas a team like the Patriots has created a culture of business-first, second, and also hand jobs, sticky contract situations could be more damaging to a Niners locker room that has been repeatedly lauded as being more family-like, personally close, and transparent. While I get the worry about setting a precedent of restructuring deals one year in, I also don’t expect many guys to go from special teams to star running backs overnight (Moseley and Brunskill had similarly meteoric rises but are also ERFA, thus they’re boned regardless). Finally, while Mostert has a short track record of elite play and would almost certainly see a drop in production anywhere else, we just traded Matt Breida, Jet McKinnon hasn’t played in two years, and Tevin and Jeff Wilson are more inside runners. We need Mostert’s speed and skill set to really hum as an offense and would likely get very little in return in a trade. Coleman was seen as a discount deal for signing a 2-year deal worth ~$5M/year last off-season. Retaining a back who could potentially be an elite performer at the same rate would still—despite the running back market—make for a great deal. The goal should be to retain him.

So what would that look like? My first order of business would be to guarantee the $2.58M of his 2020 base salary, which is entirely non-guaranteed at the moment. There is zero chance we’re cutting Mostert in 2020, so guaranteeing his salary would be a nice gesture that wouldn’t affect our cap and give him a sense of security that is particularly valuable for a player whose been a journeyman most of is career, during a year where we might not even have a season. I’d then look at adding onto the pre-existing contract with incentives. For as great as Mostert’s been in his limited touches over the past two years, he only rushed for 772 yards last year. It would be incredibly easy to structure NLTBE incentives above his 2019 numbers, which would then move over to next year’s cap if actualized (if that’s what we want), while protecting the team if he gets injured, doesn’t perform well, or the season is cut short. If the Niners believe more so that the season will be cut short or not played at all, they could set lower marks and make those incentives LTBE, affecting this year’s cap but giving us a potentially-much-needed boost to next year’s figure if those marks aren’t hit. I don’t know what Mostert’s team wants after this year, but a similar move—and/or an increase in non-guaranteed base salary—could likely be managed for 2021, and seeing as the Niners would be doing a solid by restructuring a contract a year in, I would push for an additional, team-friendly option year to tack on to the back of the contract. That would give us more locked in years if Mostert does emerge as a true bell cow back, some flexibility if he doesn’t, and another year to potentially spread out any guaranteed money cap hits in case the 2021 cap absolutely plummets. 

I’m not in the negotiating room, but that seems fair to all parties. Shanahan is likely never going to give a single running back a monster share of carries, but if Mostert becomes the lead back on the team he gets paid like it while the Niners are protected against potential issues of sample size and injury history that have hurt Mostert in the past. 

What will happen with the salary cap next year and how does that affect both of the above?

Now everything above could be void if (a) there is no season this year and/or (b) the salary cap is fuuuuuuucked in 2021.

Since the salary cap is directly tied to revenue, there is no way to imagine that it won’t be down in 2021, which would mark the first time the salary cap has NOT increased since... I dunno, but—for functional purposes at least—ever.

If the cap takes a major hit, it’s a lose-lose for everyone except a handful of cheap-ass owners with a ton of cap space (Mike Brown, anyone?). That would lead to a lot of talented veterans getting cut, much cheaper deals all around, all teams and the overall level of play being way shittier, and—in general—large scale shuffling of rosters that benefits no one (except, again, those usually-shit owners who would likely still be cheap and blame it on the rona). A dip in the salary cap punishes good teams and good players, so—to me—the reasonable move from both sides would be to accept the drop in revenue this year and use projected future earnings to spread out that drop across multiple years. Thus, any money lost this year in revenue cuts into the revenue gains of the however many x years that follow. Then the salary cap can stay largely stagnant until the revenue gains have replenished the losses and it can grow again. The NFL is not like movie theaters or giant buffet chains, it’s being temporarily threatened not permanently threatened. The giant evil empire known as the shield can expect a return to massive revenue post-COVID and with a new TV deal in place (those negotiations will be interesting...), as long as they don’t royally fuck things up now.

Which brings us to our final question. While the Niners’ negotiations are clearly tied in part to uncertainty about the salary cap moving forward, is there a chance that part of the reason the team has been dragging its feet is because it strongly believes there won’t be a season to begin with? Or that the season will be shortened to the point that it will genuinely effect contractual obligations? If that’s the case, the complexity of contract years, payouts, etc. is going to be massively complicated, and perhaps the Niners are just waiting until as much of that is cleared up as possible before pulling the trigger on any new contracts.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

COVID, baby.