In Search of Stability
Brain drain was a term that was thrown around a lot as we stumbled sloppily through the 2024 season. Over the past four years, 49ers staffers have been promoted to three general manager jobs and three NFL head coach positions. And each time one man left, he took a few assistants with him. Since 2021, the Niners have lost 13 total coaches to promotion, including three coordinators, four(!) passing game coordinators (3 on offense, 1 on defense), two assistant head coaches, our offensive line coach, our receivers coach, an assistant d-line coach, and a defensive QC coach. We’ve also fired defensive coordinators in back-to-back years. So it was nice to start 2025 by getting one of the best of those bygone coaches back in the fold.
Back to Bob
After the Jaguars made us sweat it out for a minute, Robert Saleh returns for his second run as the 49ers defensive coordinator. While there was public talk about a potentially bigger schematic shift after the DC succession plan of “do our stuff well plz” saw sharply diminishing returns over the past two years, the Niners couldn’t pass up an elite defensive mind whose scheme, personality, and coaching style already came pre-approved. And who could blame them?
Yes, we need to update our scheme. We need to get less predictable, more diverse, and better at counteracting the “designer” plays that everyone and their mother was able to pepper us with every time the fourth quarter came around. But the core of this defensive scheme is far from broken. DeMeco Ryans just operated this defense to 3rd (DVOA) and 7th (EPA) place finishes before holding the Chiefs to 212 total yards in the playoffs. While Saleh’s teams in New York finished 6th (DVOA and EPA) in 2022 and 3rd (DVOA and EPA) in 2023 before his early-season canning led to the Jets falling off a cliff defensively. And the very public ineptitude of the Jets’ offense during this time makes these stats even more impressive.
This man can coach defenses. More specifically, this man can coach our defense. And–unlike Sorensen and Wilks–he already has the full trust of Shanahan to do so. That means Shanahan can coach the offense, Saleh can coach the defense, and neither will be stretched too thin trying to split their time between the other side of the ball. It also brings a trusted confidant who we know can challenge Shanahan when necessary. And that’s a win for everyone.
Saleh was the best DC on the market, the best locker room fit, and the best schematic fit for our current roster. While changing up the scheme certainly could have been interesting, it wasn’t worth missing out on a coach who is so good at running what we already have in place. Does this mean that a year or two from now he could be gone for another head coaching job? Doesn’t that go against the idea of “stability?” Yes. But if he does well enough here that he gets those future HC calls, then we’ve come out ahead. Especially, if he sticks around for at least two years. Because then we get more third-round comp picks when he leaves.
It Can’t Get Worse. Can It Even Get… Good?
I will not pretend to know shit about the past decade of New York Jets special teams, but I will say this: Brant Boyer–our new special teams coordinator–was hired by the Jets in that same role in 2016, meaning he lasted through 3.5 different unsuccessful coaching regimes. That speaks volumes. While DVOA only goes back to 2020, the Jets' special teams have placed in the top five twice during that span, and–after an atrocious start to this season–had the league’s best unit over the back half of the year.
If you want more random special teams rankings, sportswriter Rick Gosselin has been power-ranking NFL special teams units since 2000 (no one knows why), and he’s credited Boyer with piloting four top 10 units since 2016. It should surprise no one that–during that same period–we haven’t placed in the top 10 once.
Let's go to Pro Football Reference's EPA metric for an example of what a good special teams unit could look like. During the 2023 season–when the Jets’ special teams finished 5th in DVOA–they had positive EPA in 10 of 17 games. During our 2023 season–when we finished 25th in special teams DVOA–we had a positive EPA in only 3(!) of 20 games. In 2023, the Jets’ worst special teams performance was a -3.99 EPA mark against the Browns. In 2024, we were worse than that mark six times.
Count me among those who believe Shanahan needs to approach special teams differently if we’re ever to field a genuinely elite unit. But an average one? We can do that. Richard Hightower did it for years when Shanahan was first hired. It’s just been a minute since we’ve seen it. The hiring of Boyer seems like a step in the right direction.
Also, There’s This Guy
We technically have a third new coordinator hire this off-season, but since he’s yet to be made official, won’t call plays, and has already worked on our staff in largely the same capacity, this promotion is understandably less exciting.
Klay Kubiak, who has been on our staff since 2021, will be our first offensive coordinator since Mike McDaniel left three years ago. He knows the scheme, has already played a big role in game planning as last season’s passing game coordinator, and even called plays during the “play hard but don’t win” regular-season finale in which we racked up 436 yards of offense. His promotion seems more like a title bump than anything, but it should benefit us in that having knowledgeable coaches who can collaborate with Shanahan is a good thing. The gains could be marginal, but this should be a net positive.
That said, I was hoping for an external hire, even if that idea was always better in theory than in practice. While I believe in the bones of this offense and still think it’s as good as any when we’re executing, I would have liked some outside ideas to juice up our dropback passing attack and diversify our run game. But that was always a long shot. Shanahan wasn’t going to name a person who doesn’t know the scheme offensive coordinator, and an established offensive mind was unlikely to enter the fray if they were offered the opportunity to call plays elsewhere. Our best hope would have been securing something like Kliff Kingsbury’s one-year sabbatical at USC last season or finding and promoting a rising star from another staff. Again, this was always a stretch. But it would have been nice.
Next up, the guys who actually play the sport.
Go Niners 🏈👍