Free Agency Primer
Lots to do in free agency, so let’s get to it. The Niners have 31 pending free agents, a number that seems overwhelming until you remember how many of those guys are depth players on short-term deals (Nick McCloud, anyone?). Still–if we include Deebo and Hargrave–we have six starters and a handful of important backups and rotational pieces who could depart this off-season. For a team that’s used to a high amount of roster continuity, that qualifies as significant change. So before we dive into other teams’ free agents, let’s look at how we might approach our own expiring contracts.
The Cap
Per usual, everything starts and ends with the salary cap, a number that has yet to be finalized but should be announced sometime in the next week or so. Best guesses have it landing somewhere around $275M, so that’s the number we’ll use for these purposes.
After finishing last season with the most cap space in the NFL, we enter this off-season with $50.4M available–good for 10th in the league. But a lot of that money is already earmarked.
Upcoming moves with Hargrave and Deebo are incoming. Cutting Hargrave–if designated as a June 1st cut–won’t change his cap hit much but will push a dead cap charge of $17.5M into next year. While Deebo’s cap figure ($15.8M) will likely double if we trade him–as trades can’t be designated June 1st, and it’s hard to imagine us holding him through the draft to get to that date organically. Let’s say a Hargrave post-June 1st cut and a Deebo trade shave another $16M off our cap space.
Kittle’s in the last year of his deal, and any (highly likely) extension would save us some money this season. Given his cap hit ($22M), an aggressive extension could net us an additional $10M+ in space. Fred Warner–whose $29M cap hit leads our team–has two more years on his contract but could also be in line for an extension to lower his cap figure. Let’s assume both guys get extended and–for ease of discussion–we do it conservatively and those new deals offset the $16M dead cap spike from trading Deebo.
Then, of course, there’s Purdy’s upcoming deal. There’s been some talk that Brock’s extension could resemble the shorter, less backloaded contract that Daniel Jones got a few years back. If that’s the case, we’d hedge on Purdy’s ability and save future cap flexibility at the expense of limiting present-day spending. While that’s certainly possible, don’t rule out the kind of backloaded deal that I outlined earlier, which would likely give Purdy a cap hit of no greater than $10M this season. It’s a riskier proposition in case Purdy’s play tanks, but given how we’ve operated in the past, the number of players we have in their primes and late primes, and how confident the team sounds in Purdy’s ability, that kind of structure still feels likely. Remember, if you believe in the player, slamming void years is effectively an interest-free loan. The Niners are a financially aggressive team. I don't think that changes here.
If Purdy signs a shorter, less backloaded deal then he’ll take up a sizable chunk of the cap and we’ll have little to spend on free agents. If we backload his deal into void years, we could have enough cap space to spend on one big fish or–more likely–a collection of pieces–including but not limited to our own free agents. Regardless of deal structure, I would guess that we spend free agency patching up holes, taking upside swings, and filling roster depth, rather than big game hunting. While the cap space could be there to pursue a Tee Higgins type, this feels more like the type of season where we make sure the books are (somewhat) in order for long-term sustainability.
Our Guys
As the unabashed conductor of the Dre Greenlaw hype train, I obviously want him back. If there’s any faith whatsoever that he can return healthy, the Niners should want him back as well. This need has only been exacerbated by the hiring of Saleh and our recommitment to a defensive scheme that relies heavily on rangy linebackers. Against the run, our linebackers’ ability to fill holes up and down the line of scrimmage allows our defensive line to line up wide and aggressively shoot gaps. Linebackers who lack speed or instincts can be slow to fill an interior hole—magnifying the weakness of our wide DL splits—or get beat to the edge—messing up all of our support angles. In the passing game, our linebackers’ ability to get deep and wide in coverage lets our DBs play everything top-down because they know they have so much help on digs and crossers. This squeezes out the middle of the field and forces teams to rely on short, out-breaking timing routes outside the hashes—the kind of passes that require rhythm and patience, that have little-to-no YAC potential, and that can be picked-sixed by a trap coverage. But when we have linebackers who can’t play in space (cough, cough, DeVondre Campbell), the middle of the field opens up for larger gains, which then leads to deep balls as the DBs get over-aggressive and missed tackles on checkdowns because our linebackers aren’t as fast to the ball and our second-level support is all out of whack. Subpar linebacker play has a serious trickle-down effect in this defense.
In the past, we’ve been lucky to have Azeez Al-Shaiir or Kwon Alexander coming off the bench as our third linebacker when Dre has missed time. Perhaps Dee Winters can be that guy. But if Dre is gone and Winters—who has his own injury problems—is our full-time starter, we are perilously thin behind him and will have a third linebacker with a giant target on his back whenever we’re not in nickel packages. The Niners know better than any of us how healthy Dre is. Let’s hope the answer is “very” and the result is an extension for our guy.
I’d consider Charvarius Ward, Aaron Banks, and Elijah Mitchell near certain departures. Ward just had a tragic year off the field and all his post-season comments point to a locker room that he loves but a place that is so steeped in trauma that his partner won’t even step foot in San Jose. Best of luck to him and his family moving forward. NFL execs are (mostly) not stupid. They should know his play will rebound closer to 2023 levels once his life stabilizes off the field. He’s likely to get rightfully paid out and net us a third- or fourth-round comp pick next year.
Banks is solid but kinda leveled out after his breakthrough second year. That’s not typically the sort of player and position combo that we shell out for in free agency. There’s a chance he gets a decent deal on the market–likely in a gap scheme where he doesn’t have to play as much in space—and could do well in a more downhill rushing attack. Mitchell was great when healthy, but “when healthy” has unfortunately become a disqualifier. Hopefully, he can get back on track somewhere else.
The Niners like Talanoa Hufanga enough that they started him over Ji’Ayir Brown once he returned from injury, but given the presence of our two young safeties and the word out of the Senior Bowl that the Niners will be looking to get faster on defense, it feels like Huf will likely get a better deal somewhere else. The market for him will be interesting, as many teams believe speed is required for high-level safety play, but he’s also a former First-Team All-Pro. Let’s call him a probable departure, like a Spirit Airlines flight. Maybe it takes off. But maybe not!
Many of our other free agents are rotational players who I’d consider “right price guys.” Granted, I genuinely believe that the Niners would want their entire free agent class back at the “right price.” Except for you, DeVondre Campbell. Not you. But the guys below should net less open market demand and are thus more likely to come back.
There’s been a lot of (rightful) talk about how we have to address the offensive line this off-season. The first step may be keeping some of our depth pieces in place so that it doesn’t get even worse next year. I’d expect us to retain Ben Bartch, Austen Pleasants, and Charlie Heck–all guys who cost functionally nothing and showed just enough to warrant another look but not nearly enough for us to be at all confident that any of them are more than stop-gap starters. Bring all three back, see how they perform in camp, and maybe someone surprises you.
Outside of the offensive line, I’d throw Kevin Givens and Eric Saubert in this boat. I’m sure the Niners are hoping for a tight end upgrade in this draft class, but for a team that often rosters three of the position, locking up one on the cheap feels likely. Givens has kind of plateaued in his second-line role and could get pushed out by a numbers game down the road, but—at the moment—those numbers are quite thin. Chris Conley is here too because he knows the playbook and we’re not in a spot to jettison strong special teams players. He also fills our “X receiver who threatens deep but never gets the ball” role on offense—totaling 239 snaps of offense last year. His status could change based on how we approach replacing Deebo, but—for now—Conley feels safe. One of our quarterbacks is likely to return, I’ll guess Josh Dobbs. And while the Niners would love it if Darrell Luter Jr. emerged to take one of those three starting corner positions next year, I wouldn’t be shocked if any of our veteran corners (Isaac Yiadom, Rock Ya-Sin) comes back–likely on the practice squad—if their market doesn’t materialize. If we don’t re-sign one of those corners before the draft, we can hope that means Luter is finally healthy and ready to perform.
Jaylon Moore would be in the above category, but for now, I’ll classify his situation as “playing the field.” Moore started five games for us at left tackle and played pretty dang well–certainly the best he’s looked so far in his young career. That could result in someone paying him to compete for a starting job elsewhere. Moore’s situation is a microcosm of our issues along the OL: too many playables, not enough dudes. Playables are great–as there are far too few in the NFL, particularly along the offensive line–but you can’t build a roster out of them. Moore was a well-liked prospect out of college who fell to us in the fifth round. Maybe he’s a late bloomer and there’s still untapped potential in his game. Maybe he caps out as something like a pass-pro-leaning Colton McKivitz. But at worst, he’s a playable swing tackle. Those are valuable. If Moore leaves for a potential starter salary, we’ll get a decent comp pick in return. But if he leaves on a relatively meager deal, that could signal that the Niners are serious about drafting a tackle this spring… or that we’ll be screwed if either of our tackles gets hurt come fall. Either one.
Jordan Mason also gets clumped in here because of his odd contract situation. With CMC and Guerendo both having significant injury questions, it would make sense to retain Mason–who was one of the league’s leading rushers in the short time he started for us. But the staff is rightfully high on Guerendo, meaning Mason’s value next year could fluctuate anywhere from our RB3 to one of the league’s top rushers. How do you value that kind of variance?
This is further convoluted by Mason’s status as a restricted free agent. Per RFA tender estimations, we’d have to offer him $5.2M to ensure a second round pick if someone outbids us. But while the money doesn’t seem outrageous for a potential suitor, the second round compensation–especially in a loaded RB draft class–is a nonstarter. We could also tender him with the $3.1M right of first refusal to let us match any offer that comes in. But since Mason was an undrafted free agent, we’d get zero compensation if he walks. Finally, there’s a third option: we don’t tender him at all and just let him test free agency. If someone pays him enough to be a part of a backfield by committee, we may net a comp pick in return. If they don’t, we could feasibly take him back on the cheap. This last option feels the most likely to me, especially given the surplus of rookie talent that’s coming down the pipeline.
Finally, we have our cut candidates. Hargrave and Deebo are expected. Any of the guys we added along the DL last year—other than Maliek Collins—could also be gone depending on how we approach the position group. Neither our kicker nor our punter seems safe, but I doubt we see a move away from either until we get through the draft and into camp. And lastly, don’t sleep on Juice, who already took a pay cut last season, will turn 34 in April, and is staring down a draft loaded with tight end/h-back prospects. Juice’s spot is a difficult one to fill. There are not a lot of guys who can execute the complexity of blocks that he can while still being a threat when split out wide. But his snap counts have steadily diminished over the past four years, and there’s reason to believe that the offense may be shifting away from the Swiss Army knife capabilities he’s so well known for. Just like with Deebo, everyone loves Juice. But if both depart this off-season, it could signal some legitimate schematic changes moving forward. Again, I love both those players and it would be sad to see them go, but a freshening up of our offense could be necessary.
Next, we’ll talk about potential free agent fits.
Go Niners 🏈👍